Siyo kweli, Soma tena hii kisha urudi hapa. Halafu unasoma kweli navyokuwekea? Jaribu kutulia, usome na kuelewa. Halafu tambuwa kwamba huwa niko makini sana na source za habari zangu. Ninajali sana credibility ya habari nayoweka hapa kama reference ya ku support hoja yangu. Ni sources ambazo zinakubalika academically!
Kama unataka naweza kutafsiri ndo niweke. Otherwise nina imani kwamba unaelewa vyema unachosoma.
Trump inherited a strong economy that got stronger…
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Unemployment: Under Obama, unemployment was cut from a recession-peak of 10 percent to only 4.7 percent. It has continued to drop and now is extremely low at 3.6 percent.5
-Job growth: By the end of the Obama administration, the economy had experienced 76 consecutive months of job growth. Since Trump became president, the streak has been extended to 109 consecutive months.
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Average monthly job growth: During the last 33 months of the Obama administration, non- farm job growth averaged 224,000 per month. During the first 33 months of the Trump administration, the average was 34,000 jobs per month less.
-GDP growth: Average real GDP growth was roughly the same (2.6 percent) for the first 11 quarters under President Trump (ending Sept. 2019) and for the last 11 quarters of the Obama administration.
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Income: During the last two years of the Obama administration, annual median household income increased $4,800. This is three times more than the $1,400 increase during the first two years of the Trump administration.6
Did Trump Create or Inherit the Strong Economy?
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The stock market: President Trump frequently points to the stock market as evidence of his success, even though it is a poor proxy for the nation’s overall economic well-being since nearly half of Americans do not own stock, either directly or indirectly.
However, even by this measure, he lags behind President Obama. Between President Trump’s Inauguration Day and November 2019, the Dow Jones Average increased more than 40 percent, while over the eight years of the Obama administration, the DJIA increased almost 150 percent – a substantially greater pace.
Mainstream economists say the economy was strong before Trump took office
Greg Mankiw, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under George W. Bush, states that “... the economy was in fine shape at the end of the Obama administration, despite what President Trump sometimes asserts.”7
A substantial part of economic progress under Trump occurred before his signature economic policy took effect
President Trump’s most significant economic policy, his $1.9 trillion tax cuts, did not take effect until January 2018—a year after he took office. By that time, unemployment had dropped from 4.7 to 4.1 percent, household incomes had increased $850 and 2.3 million new jobs had been created.
The tax cuts may have caused a slight “sugar high” – but at a very high price
The 2017 tax cuts likely added some fuel to the already-hot economy because they increased corporate profits (benefiting shareholders) and gave individuals more money to spend. However, many economists say that the “sugar high” from the tax cuts is wearing off. In fact, business investment has declined for two consecutive quarters and a recent analysis by the New York Times found no relationship between the size of the tax cut companies and industries received and their investments.8 In the long term, the $1.9 trillion in new federal debt likely will weigh down the economy.9
Trump’s trade war hurts consumers, businesses and the economy
American businesses and consumers, not foreigners, pay tariffs. Although the tariffs hurt China by reducing demand for more Chinese goods, they also hurt American businesses that pay the tariffs, American consumers who buy the higher-priced products, American farmers who are hit with reciprocal tariffs, and the economy, which is weighed down by the interaction of these forces.
One analysis finds that the trade war with China has already cost 300,000 American jobs and the number could rise to 450,000 by the end of the year.10 Furthermore, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the trade war will reduce GDP by 0.3 percent in 2020.11 There clearly are American casualties in the trade war—the magnitude of the long-term damage is yet to be seen.
Trump inherited a strong economy—will he screw it up?
It is clear that Trump inherited a strong economy that was still trending upward when he entered office—those trends have continued. The economy may have received a small boost from the 2017 tax cuts, but many economists believe that “sugar high” will be short-lived. Meanwhile, the Trump trade war has hurt American consumers and businesses, and it may slow future economic growth. In short, Trump inherited a strong economy from Barack Obama. The question is whether he will screw it up.