Mkuu unapotosha kwa makusudi..... hvi tuwe wakweli kama UG wangeanza kuchimba mafuta toka 2010 je faida yake ingelingana na leo?
$70 kwa pipa 2010 ama $50 kwa pipa 2021? Alafu unasema ame delay inasaidia kupata best deal?
U can't be serious
Kama umepitia mada yote kuna post nimeeleza, sehemu ngumu za majadiliano ya mkataba ni technical na commercial elements.
Mkataba wa mafuta kwenye share of commercial aspect sio rigid, una flactuate based on commodity market price, kwa hivyo watu awaangalii bei ya mafuta leo ni kiasi gani wanachoangalia ni at certain market price wewe unapata nini na wao wanachukua nini through out the life of the agreement. Bei inaposhuka sana, mapato yao yakiathirika yanafidiwa mbele bei inapopanda.
Na hii mikataba kwenye profit sharing kwanza zinatoka finance costs (investment costs) kasheshe sasa mwekezaji ukute asilimia kubwa ya mtaji hela kakopa bank kwa riba kubwa, pili inatoka motisha ya mwekezaji percentage in profit shares zake, host nation ndio wamisho kuvuna. Kwa ivyo host nations utakuta anategemea sana kodi za mapato na kama umetoa concessions za ovyo, well utasibiri sana kuvuna.
Kingine miradi ya aina hiyo aina faida kwa yule unaengia nae mkataba tu. Kuna chain ndefu banks zao ndio zinazokopesha, ajira za technocrats kwao, biashara kwa makampuni ya meli zenye specialised ships kwa miradi ya aina hiyo, kodi serikali zao, suppliers wa vifaa vya kujengea miundombinu wanapata.
There is a long supply chain huko kwao kushinda kwetu, ambapo asilimia kubwa ya hiyo $30 billion investment inarudi.
Hizo ndio sababu pia asilimia kubwa ya most risky part ya miradi ya Oil and Gas ambayo ni exploration washiriki wakubwa ni either fully sponsored na serikali zao au partly sponsored; kwa sababu serikali zao zinaelewa faida zake kwao. Rarely utasikia big companies zinafanya exploration the likes of Shell, BP and Total wao huwa wanakuja kununua vitalu wengine wakishapata vyenye reserve.
So you have to be careful on what you’re getting yourself into, sio mambo ya kukurupuka kabisa.
Besides waganda walikuwa washamaliza commercial negotiations hizo sio sababu za kuchelewa kwa mradi, isipokuwa waliongeza conditions zingine za mazingira na uwekezaji wa jamii.