Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

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Coco reborn said:
Foreign assets will be frozen
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Kwanza Unakubali kwamba hiyo sio default kama alivyokueleza mkuu Nkuba25 hapo!? Comment yako huko nyuma kuhusu Russia kuja kulipa riba kubwa kwa sababu ameshindwa kulioa deni 'default' si ukaifute sasa.

ProNato mnatisha kwa uongo

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triga said:
That was from the MoD of RF. I cant see who/what can be more credible than that

I'm curious how do/have you figure/figured that's 'fake news'!?

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Naamini kwamba wewe huwezi kuwaza kiongine. Ila watu wanaokumbuka uwongo wa Urusi hawaamini matangazo yoyote kutoka kwao.
Kuanzia viapo "Tunafanya mazoezi tu hakuna mipango ya kuvamia Ukraine" hadi "hatukulenga kushambulia Kyiv, tulitembea pale tu kidogo ili kupunguza jeshi lao Donbass"
Hadi: "Waukraine walisafirisha malori ya maiti Bucha na kuzimwaga barabarani ili kutuchafua"
Chanzo cha kuaminika kabisa!!!
 
Ebu nitajie wilaya hata moja iliyopo kwenye mkoa wa Mariupol,inayoshikiliwa na majeshi ya ukraine maana tukiwambia Mariupol ishaondoka mnakuwa wabishi
Pietro said:
Kama Mariupol mpaka Leo haijakombolewa yote huko Kharkiv itafika mpaka Christmas. Nimeamini Russia kwenye convectional warfare ni dhaifu.
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triga said:
Kwanza Unakubali kwamba hiyo sio default kama alivyokueleza mkuu Nkuba25 hapo!? Comment yako huko nyuma kuhusu Russia kuja kulipa riba kubwa kwa sababu ameshindwa kulioa deni 'default' si ukaifute sasa.

ProNato mnatisha kwa uongo

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Samahani uwongo gani? Usipolipa wakati unaokubaliwa (tena kwa hela iliyokubaliwa siyo kwa samaki, ruble au karanga) una"default".
Bahati mbaya si sababu ya kusamehewa... Wala kuleta hela isiyo na thamani - maana kimataifa haina thamani isipokuwa ukitaka kununua gesi Urusi (menginevyo huruhusiwi kubadilisha rubel zako kwa hela halisi)
 
Hakuna vikwazo hapo zaidi ya vichekesho.unaniwekea vikwazo kuwa sifanyi biashara na wewe alafu hapo hapo unasema vikwazo havihusiani na gesi na mafuta.

Urusi uchumi wake ni mkubwa sana tofauti kama mnavyoaminishwa na mabeberu.
Nyamizi said:
Na hapo ndipo mtihani ulipo,uchumi wenyewe wa Russia ni wa kawaida sana,kuhimili hii vita kwa muda mrefu huku akiwa na vikwazo vya kutosha ni ngumu sana.Nimeangalia CNN na Aljazeera tayari keshadefault na madeni yake.
Hapo hapo anawatishia Sweden na Finland,wakati uwezo wa kupigana kote kwa wakati mmoja hana
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Statements by Vladimir Putin on the situation around Ukraine:

— there is no doubt that the goals and objectives of the operation will be fulfilled: “The goal is to help people in the Donbass”;

- Kyiv publicly refused to comply with the Minsk agreements, it was impossible to continue to tolerate the genocide;

- They began to turn Ukraine into an anti-Russian springboard, to grow the germs of nationalism that existed there;

- due to the fact that neo-Nazi shoots were specially grown in Ukraine, a clash with Moscow was inevitable, the only question was time;

- The Russian Federation is not going to isolate itself, and it is also impossible to strictly isolate it from the outside.
Galip SV
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Putin and Lukashenko at the Vostochny cosmodrome. We collected the main statements of the President of the Russian Federation:

- Russia will resume the lunar program, the Luna-25 station will be launched;

- Moscow and Minsk will jointly form the infrastructure in the space sector;

— Russia will continue to develop technologies and raise its own competencies;

- The Russian Federation with its technologies will be able to develop the rocket and space program under sanctions;

- Roskosmos was instructed to organize the flight into space of representatives of Belarus on a Russian ship;

- the challenges of space exploration must be successfully answered.
Galip SV
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Mwanamkiwi said:
Naamini kwamba wewe huwezi kuwaza kiongine. Ila watu wanaokumbuka uwongo wa Urusi hawaamini matangazo yoyote kutoka kwao.
Kuanzia viapo "Tunafanya mazoezi tu hakuna mipango ya kuvamia Ukraine" hadi "hatukulenga kushambulia Kyiv, tulitembea pale tu kidogo ili kupunguza jeshi lao Donbass"
Hadi: "Waukraine walisafirisha malori ya maiti Bucha na kuzimwaga barabarani ili kutuchafua"
Chanzo cha kuaminika kabisa!!!
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Kama umekuja kumsaidia ndugu yako sawa. Mjibie vizuri sasa.

Taarifa ya kutoka MoD of RF inasema wameilipua s300 iloyopelekwa Ukr from european country. Mnasema ni feki news chanzo chenu ni kipi!? MoD of Ukraine au!?

mashambulizi yanayofanywa na warusi Ukraine chanzo cha kuaminika kuhusu taarifa zake ni MoD of RF. Au unabisha!?

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Mwanamkiwi said:
Samahani uwongo gani? Usipolipa wakati unaokubaliwa (tena kwa hela iliyokubaliwa siyo kwa samaki, ruble au karanga) una"default".
Bahati mbaya si sababu ya kusamehewa... Wala kuleta hela isiyo na thamani - maana kimataifa haina thamani isipokuwa ukitaka kununua gesi Urusi (menginevyo huruhusiwi kubadilisha rubel zako kwa hela halisi)
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Default vs Force majeure
Labda wewe ni mwanasheria tufundishe hapo.



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Sit back and watch Europe committing hara-kiri.​


The stunning spectacle of the EU committing slow-motion hara-kiri is something for the ages. Like a cheap Kurosawa remake, the movie is actually about the Empire of Lies detonated demolition of the EU, complete with the subsequent rerouting of some key Russian commodity exports to the US at the expense of the Europeans.

It helps to have a 5th columnist actress strategically placed, in this case astonishingly incompetent European Commission head Ursula von der Lugen, with a brand new vociferous announcement of an extra sanctions package: Russian ships banned from EU ports; road transportation companies from Russia and Belarus prohibited from entering the EU; no more coal imports (over 4.4 billion euros a year).
That translates in practice into the Empire of Lies shaking down its wealthiest Western clients/puppets.

Russia of course is too powerful militarily.The Empire badly needs some of its key exports, especially minerals. Mission Accomplished, in this case, amounts to nudging the EU into imposing more and more sanctions and willfully collapsing their national economies, allowing the US to scoop everything up.
Cue to the coming catastrophic economic consequences felt by Europeans in their daily life (but not by the wealthiest 5%): inflation devouring salaries and savings; next winter energy bills packing a mean punch; products disappearing from supermarkets; holiday bookings almost frozen; Le Petit Roi Macron in France may be up to a nasty electoral surprise,announcing “food stamps like in WWII.
We have Germany facing the returning ghost of Weimar hyperinflation; BlackRock President Rob Kapito saying, in Texas, “for the first time, this generation is going to go into a store and not be able to get what they want; farmers in Africa not able to afford fertilizer at all this year, reducing agricultural production by an amount capable of feeding 100 million people."

Zoltan Poszar, former NY Fed and US Treasury guru, current Credit Suisse grand-vizir, has been on a streak, stressing how commodity reserves,and here Russia is unrivaled, will be an essential feature of what he calls Bretton Woods III (yet, in fact, what’s being designed by Russia, China, Iran, and the Eurasia Economic Union is a post-Bretton Woods).

Pozar remarks that wars, historically, are won by those who have more food and energy supplies, in the past to power horses and soldiers, today to feed soldiers and fuel tanks and fighter jets.
China, incidentally, has amassed large stocks of virtually everything.
Pozar notes how our current Bretton Woods II system has a deflationary impulse (globalization, open trade, just-in-time supply chains) while Bretton Woods III will provide an inflationary impulse (de-globalization, autarky, hoarding of raw materials) of supply chains and extra military spending to be able to protect what will remain of seaborne trade.

The implications are of course overwhelming. What’s implicit, ominously, is that this state of affairs may even lead to WWIII.

Rublegas or American LNG?
The Valdai Club has conducted an essential expert discussion on what the West has
defined as Rublegas, the real geoeconomic game changer at the heart of the postpetrodollar era. Alexander Losev, a member of the Russian Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, offered the contours of the Big Picture. But it was up to Alexey Gromov, Chief Energy Director of the Institute of Energy and Finance, to come up with crucial nitty-gritty details.
Russia so far was selling gas to Europe to the amount of 155 billion cubic meters a year.
The EU rhetorically promises to get rid of it by 2027, and reduce supply by the end of 2022 by 100 billion cubic meters. Gromov asked “how”, and remarked, “any expert has no answer. Most of Russia’s natural gas is shipped over pipelines. This cannot simply be replaced by LNG.
The risible European answer has been “start saving”, as in “prepare to be worse off. Reduce the temperature in households”. Gromov noted how, in Russia, “22 to 25 degrees in winter is the norm. Europe is promoting 16 degrees as ‘healthy’, and wearing sweaters at night.”
The EU won’t be able to get the gas it needs from Norway or Algeria (which is privileging domestic consumption). Azerbaijan would be able to provide at best 10 billion cubic meters a year, but that will take 2 or 3 years to happen.
Gromov stressed how there’s no surplus in the market today for US and Qatar LNG. And how prices for Asian customers are always higher. The bottom line is that by end of 2022, Europe won’t be able to significantly reduce what it buys from Russia: they might cut by 50 billion cubic meters, maximum. And prices in the spot market will be higher ,at least $1,300 per cubic meter.

An important development is that Russia has changed the logistical supply chains to Asia already. That applies to gas and oil as well:
“You can impose sanctions if there’s a surplus in the market. Now there’s a shortage of at least 1.5 million barrels of oil a day. We’ll be sending our supplies to Asia, with a discount.” Says Gromov. As it stands, Asia is already paying a premium, from 3 to 5 dollars more per barrel of oil.
On oil shipments, Gromov also commented on the key issue of insurance: “Insurance premiums are higher. Before Ukraine, it was all based on the FOB system. Now buyers are saying ‘we don’t want to take the risk of taking your cargo to our ports’. So they are applying the CIF system, where the seller has to ensure and transport the cargo. That of course impacts revenues.”
An absolutely key issue for Russia is how to make the transition to China as its key gas customer. It’s all about Power of Siberia 2, which will reach full capacity only in 2024. And first, the interconnector through Mongolia must be built ,3 years are needed to build this pipeline, so everything will be in place only around 2025.On the Yamal pipeline, Gromov says “most of the gas goes to Asia. If the Europeans don’t buy anymore we can redirect.” And then there’s the Arctic LNG 2,
which is larger than Yamal: He says“the first phase should be finished soon, it’s 80% ready.” An extra problem may be poised by the Russian “Unfriendlies” in Asia: Japan and South Korea. LNG infrastructure produced in Russia still depends on foreign technologies.
That’s what leads Gromov to note that, “the model of mobilization- based economy is not so good.” But that’s what Russia needs to deal with at least in the short to medium term.
Gromov notes that the positives are that the new paradigm will allow more cooperation within the BRICS; the expansion of the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC); and more interaction and integration with Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and Iran.
Only in terms of Iran and Russia, swaps in the Caspian are already in the works, as Iran produces more than it needs, and is set to increase cooperation with Russia in the framework of the strenghtened strategic partnership, he concludes

Hypersonic geoeconomics
It was up to Chinese energy expert Fu Chengyu to offer a concise explanation of why the EU drive of replacing Russian gas with American LNG is, well, a pipe dream. Essentially the US offer is “too limited and too costly,” he says.
Fu Chengyu showed how a lengthy, tricky process depends on four contracts: between the gas developer and the LNG company; between the LNG company and the buyer company; between the LNG buyer and the cargo company (which builds vessels); and between the buyer and the end user.
Each contract, he pointed out, takes a long time to finish. Without all these signed contracts no party will invest,be it an investment on infrastructure or gas field development. So actual delivery of American LNG to Europe assumes all these interconnected resources are available
and moving like clockwork,he says

Fu Chengyu’s verdict is stark: this EU obsession with ditching Russian gas will provoke an impact on global economic growth, and recession. They are pushing their own people
and the world to a disaster. In the energy sector, we will all be harmed,he continues.
It was quite enlightening to juxtapose the coming geoeconomic turbulence,
the EU obsession in by-passing Russian gas and the onset of Rublegas,with the real reasons behind Operation Z in Ukraine, completely obscured by Western media psyops.

Fu Chengyu says he
submitted a few questions to a US Deep State old pro, now retired, and quite familiar with the inner workings of the old OSS, the CIA precursor, all the way to the neocon dementia.
His answers were quite sobering. He started by pointing out that the whole Ukraine issue is over hypersonic missiles that can reach Moscow in less than four minutes. The US wants them there, in Poland, Romania, Baltic States, Sweden and Finland. This is in direct violation of the agreements of 1991 that NATO will not expand in Eastern Europe. The US does not have hypersonic missiles now,but should in a year or two. This is an existential threat to Russia. So Russia had to go into the Ukraine to stop this. Next will be Poland and Romania where launchers have been built and are being built in Poland.
From a completely different geopolitical perspective, what’s really telling is that Fu Chengyu's analysis happens to dovetail with Zoltan Poszar’s geoeconomics that the US and NATO are totally belligerent. This presents a real danger to Russia.

The idea that nuclear war is unthinkable is a myth. If you look at the firebombing of Tokyo against Hiroshima,Nagasaki, and Tokyo,alot of people died and there was extensive damage.The cities were however rebuilt. With nuclear bombing,their will also be extensive damage,but the radiation will go away and life can restart. The difference between firebombing and nuclear bombing is only efficiency. NATO provocations are so extreme that Russia had to place their nuclear missiles on standby alert,so anything is possible. This is a gravely serious matter. But the US has ignored it.
 
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