LIVE Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

LIVE Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

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Papa Fransis katika dominika ya leo kutoka Vatican amewatakia heri waukraine waliyo katika mstari wa mbele
 
Pengine labda ukifahamu wanchofanya Moscow ni nini!

Kipindi ambacho USSR walipoweka base ya kijeshi Cuba na kuweka makombora ya nyuklia USA ilihangaika sana kwa sababu USSR ni hasimu wao hivyo ni mazingira hatari kwa usalama wa nchi. Walitumia njia tofauti tofauti kukabiliana na hilo. Waliwawekea vikwazo Cuba. Walianzisha vita kwa kuwafadhili wana Cuba wengine ili kufanya jaribio la mapinduzi ambalo lilifeli.

Na haya ndiyo mazingira yale yale kwa Urusi. NATO ni hasimu wake. Ukraine ni nchi huru. Ila uhuru wa kuhatarisha usalama wa jirani yako huo uhuru inabidi uangaliwe. Ikiwa Ukraine akijiunga na NATO ni hatari kwa Usalama wa Urusi. Ukraine alikuwa na mabomu ya nyuklia. Vipi akirudi kwenye mpango wa kuyazalisha ukijumlisha akiwa kwenye umoja wa NATO itakuwa ni hatari zaidi kwa usalama wa Urusi.

Serikali ya Ukraine imekataa makubaliano na Moscow ya kuwa wawe neutral. Njia ambayo Moscow inaiona itailinda nchi yake ni kuiondoa serikli ya Ukraine na kufanya hivi itakuwa ni tishio kwa Ukraine na kumfanya abadili sera yake.

Hivyo unavyosema ni vita ya Putin kwa manufaa ya kijeshi kuna angle haujaiangalia vizuri. Putin na wakubwa wengine wa Urusi wanalinda maslahi ya usalama wa muda mrefu wa Taifa lao. Ukraine ipo vizuri kijeshi lakini imezidiwa na Urusi. Njia pekee ambayo ni salama kwa Ukraine ni kufanya mazungumzo na Urusi na wakubaliane ili amani irudi tena Ukraine. Rais wao anataka aonekane shujaa lakini hili litamgharimu kwa sababu hatumii akili.

Na usihofia kuhusumaandamano nchini Urusi. Sehemu ya raia wanaoandamana ni ndogo tofauti na wanaokubaliana na maamuzi ya serikali. Ila yote juu ya yote vita si jambo zuri.
Raia wengi wa urusi wangekuwa wanakubaliana na alichofanya Putin, wasingefungiwa mitandao kma facebook nk

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Africa ipi hiyo? Yaani uache kukaa kwa mahindi ukae kwa wapuuzi na loosers hao maskini wa Russia?

Egypt na South Africa wote wamemzingua huyo Russia.

Pia mimi hapa ntakuwa wa kwanza kutungua wanaounga mkono Russia.
Ww subiri Afghanstani naye yupo tayari ku join kwa Urusi
 
Jawabu ni kwamba: Inakubidi urudi katika historia mwanzo wa vita baridi baada ya ww2 mpaka 1997.
Huwezi kujifunga kwenye minyororo ya historia,huyo Russia angetaka hicho anachodai asingeruhusu Nchi zilizokuwa sehemu ya federations ziwe Republics.

Kwa kuruhusu tuu hilo hana haki tena na anachodai.Ndio maana sasa ameamua kupandikiza watu kwenye majingo yanayojitenga,anatumia njia ile ile walioyotumia west so vita ya nini sasa.
 
Baadhi ya nchi zinazidi kuvunja policies zao za kijeshi ambazo zimekuwa zikizoeleka. Sweden nayo imetangaza kupeleka misaada ya kijeshi Ukraine zikiwemo rocket launchers, helmets, anti-tank missiles bamoja na body amours.

Ila Ujerumani ndiyo inayoongoza kwa kuvunja policies zake za kijeshi na kupiga U-turns nyingi kwa muda mfupi sana.
 
Kuna shida gani? Kwani yeye kakatazwa kuweka base Cuba?

Mbona kapeleka wanajeshi Venezuela nani kamkatalia?

Amemtushia na Sweden na Finland eti watakumbana na hatua za kijeshi wakijiunga
Bora zako wewe Mmarekani wa Tandahimba una ana akili sana kuliko hata Colonel Macgregor wa Jeshi la Marekani ktk kuona kuwa hakuna ubaya kwa Marekani na NATO kuweka ngome zao za kijeshi Ukraine na pia Russia kuweka ngome ya kijeshi Cuba.

Colonel Macgregor, afisa mstaafu wa jeshi la Marekani anakujibu hivi Marekani ina nafasi ya kuepusha vita na Putin (Russia). Jambo la kwanza wanalopaswa kufanya Wamarekani ni kukiri na kukubaliana na nukta ya msingi ya Putin (Russia), ambayo serekali ya Russia imeiweka wazi kwa zaidi ya miaka 25 sasa. Nukta yenyewe ni kuwa Russia hawataki majeshi ya Marekani, mizinga ya Marekani, na majeshi ya NATO kwenye mpaka wake na Ukraine (Mashariki ya Ukraine kwenye majimbo yaliyotangazwa huru na Putin).

Colonel Douglas akaendelea kusema: Kiukweli kabisa hata sisi Wamarekani hatukuyataka majeshi ya Russia na mizinga yake ndani ya Cuba, Putin naye hataki mambo hayo mashariki mwa Ukraine. Lazima tukubali madai hayo. Tuache kujifanyisha kuwa madai hayo hayana maana (ni ya kipuuzi).
======



COL. DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Let me just reiterate something. I, like you and millions of Americans, would prefer that the troops headed to Eastern Europe right now were headed to the Mexican border. But I’m also very concerned that we find a way to avoid a conflict with Russia. The first thing we have to do is acknowledge that Putin’s basic point, not just his point, the Russian government’s point, which they’ve made for 25 years, is valid. They don’t want U.S. forces and missiles and NATO troops immediately across the border in eastern Ukraine. Absolutely. We didn’t want them in Cuba, he doesn’t want them in eastern Ukraine. We should acknowledge that. Stop pretending it’s a nonissue. It is a major issue for them. Let’s acknowledge it and then let’s get down to business and tell them fine, our concern at this point is we don’t want you to proceed west towards the polish border over the Dnieper River in Ukraine.
 
Baadhi ya nchi zinazidi kuvunja policies zao za kijeshi ambazo zimekuwa zikizoeleka. Sweden nayo imetangaza kupeleka misaada ya kijeshi Ukraine zikiwemo rocket launchers, helmets, anti-tank missiles bamoja na body amours.

Ila Ujerumani ndio inayoongoza kwa kuvunja policies zake za kijeshi na kupiga U-turns nyingi kwa muda mfupi sana.
Si ilipigwa mkwara juzi na Russia,nadhani hii ni wake up kwa Sweden,Finland na Nordic countries zingine wakiwemo akina Kazakhstan,hazitakubali kupangiwa maisha tena na Russia.

Hii ni technical error Russia imefanya.
 
Mkuu unajishushia heshima kwa kutoelewa vitu vidogo. Sijui una elimu gani, ila angalia miaka 1980-90s URUSI alipeleka BASE yake ya kijeshi NCHINI CUBA, ulitokea mzozo kama huu wa leo. Hii ina maana kwamba, UKRINE hana adui katika ukanda huu, ila URUSI ana maadui ukanda huu ambao ni NATO. hivyo walikubaliana na NATO kuwa kuwe na ukomo wa nchi fulani kuwa NATO, ambapo hizi majirani na RUSSIA zisiwe NATO, leo hii UKRAINE anataka kuungwa NATO huoni ni UGOMVI?? Nchi kama, FINLAND mbona wametulia na hawataki kuwa NATO??
Kwenye huu mzozo URUSI yuko sahihi na wapenda haki watasimama na URUSI.
Sema Nini!!!.
Msalimie huyo solokoto juu ya jiwe hapo.
 
Russia kabeba conscripts wenye miaka 19-22 around hapo ndio troops. From poor family zisizo na sauti na uwezo wa kuhonga ili watoto wao kukwepa mandatory exercises, walikuwa kwenye training wakabadilishiwa wavamie, hawajaaga nyumbani, hawana justification ya kuvamia wanayoijua. Lengo la Kremlin ni kutishia Waukraine wajisalimishe, hawakuwaza kupambana sana. Walijua yaleyale ya Crimea wakati kipindi kile nchi ilikuwa na political turmoil. Sera za Urusi ni zile "show of force" ndio maana magwaride kila mwaka ila NATO hakuna nchi ina gwaride hata moja.

Ila tuwe makini, ikitokea Russia ikavamiwa hawatapigana namna hii. Uwezo wa kupigana wanao sana ila justification for war hawana. Nilikuwa namlaumu Biden na Olaf Scholz wa Ujerumani kwamba wameitelekeza Ukraine mapigano yalipoanza. Kumbe wazee wa siasa wazoefu walikuwa wanatafuta justification, yani sasa hivi dunia inajua Putin mchokozi. Walisubiri aggression ionekane waziwazi walete retaliation.

Nikisoma historia ya vita nyingi mara zote vita ikianza huwa makamanda wanaokuwepo wanakuwa wamedumaa kama hawakuwa na combat muda mrefu, sera zao hazibadiliki na mbinu za kijeshi huwa zinakuwa nyuma ya muda mara zote. Hii vita tech giants zimehusishwa kama Google, Meta na Apple. Mwaka juzi vita ya Azerbaijan na Armenia ilisababisha UK Defence Ministry wakaingie field kutafuta matumizi ya drones, US ikakazana zaidi kutafuta drone countermeasures, Russia ikaona drones ni tishio sio utani tena, terrorists wakapata kujua wakafanya shambulizi vituo vya mafuta Saudi Arabia. Mpaka nchi ije kujirudi inatumia muda, losses hazikwepeki. Ila sikutarajia performance ndogo hivi ya Urusi
Lakini mm mkuu naona hatua ya Ujerumani kupeleka silaha Ukraine ni mbaya maana ninahofia wenda Urusi ika lazimika kuanza kutumia nguvu kubwa sana kitu ambacho kitasababisha maafa makubwa kwa Ukraine ikageuka Siyria ya Ulaya.
Maana nikikumbuka yale mashambulizi ya anga yaliyo fanywa na Urusi kule Allepo na pata hofu.

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Bora zako wewe Mmarekani wa Tandahimba una ana akili sana kuliko hata Colonel Macgregor wa Jeshi la Marekani ktk kuona kuwa hakuna ubaya kwa Marekani na NATO kuweka ngome zao za kijeshi Ukraine na pia Russia kuweka ngome ya kijeshi Cuba.

Colonel Macgregor, afisa mstaafu wa jeshi la Marekani anakujibu hivi Marekani ina nafasi ya kuepusha vita na Putin (Russia). Jambo la kwanza wanalopaswa kufanya Wamarekani ni kukiri na kukubaliana na nukta ya msingi ya Putin (Russia), ambayo serekali ya Russia imeiweka wazi kwa zaidi ya miaka 25 sasa. Nukta yenyewe ni kuwa Russia hawataki majeshi ya Marekani, mizinga ya Marekani, na majeshi ya NATO kwenye mpaka wake na Ukraine (Mashariki ya Ukraine kwenye majimbo yaliyotangazwa huru na Putin).

Colonel Douglas akaendelea kusema: Kiukweli kabisa hata sisi Wamarekani hatukuyataka majeshi ya Russia na mizinga yake ndani ya Cuba, Putin naye hataki mambo hayo mashariki mwa Ukraine. Lazima tukubali madai hayo. Tuache kujifanyisha kuwa madai hayo hayana maana (ni ya kipuuzi).
======



COL. DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Let me just reiterate something. I, like you and millions of Americans, would prefer that the troops headed to Eastern Europe right now were headed to the Mexican border. But I’m also very concerned that we find a way to avoid a conflict with Russia. The first thing we have to do is acknowledge that Putin’s basic point, not just his point, the Russian government’s point, which they’ve made for 25 years, is valid. They don’t want U.S. forces and missiles and NATO troops immediately across the border in eastern Ukraine. Absolutely. We didn’t want them in Cuba, he doesn’t want them in eastern Ukraine. We should acknowledge that. Stop pretending it’s a nonissue. It is a major issue for them. Let’s acknowledge it and then let’s get down to business and tell them fine, our concern at this point is we don’t want you to proceed west towards the polish border over the Dnieper River in Ukraine.
Nani kasema anataka kupeleka silaha kwenye majimbo yaliyojitangaza huru?

Kisingizio cha Russia ni kwamba hayo majimbo wakazi wake wengi wanaongea ki Russia so wananyanyaswa na Ukraine.

Lakini sidhani kama ni kweli wananyanyaswa, ukweli ni kwamba ni sehemu ya ku destabilise Ukraine na kuharibu ku push NATO nje zaidi ya mipaka ya Russia.
 
Unaijua lakini Ka50/52
Mi 35/24,Mi28 nk.
Hizo baylatkar zenyewe Ukraine walikua nazo nyingitu lakini hazijafanya kazi. Kama katushka tu na Idd Amin Dadaa
 
Na watu wengi hawaelewi kuwa nguvu anayoitumia Urusi ni ndogo. Ikiwa mkakati wake hautokamilika kwa muda aliyojiwekea. Suala litakalobaki ni moja tu nalo amalize vita. Akifikia hapo yule Rais anayetaka kuonekana shujaa watu wataanza kumuita mjinga.
Hata mm hili jambo nimewambia watu wengi lakini wamekomaza vichwa Ukraine akiendeleza ukaidi atageuka kuwa Syriya ya Ulaya.
Nikikumbuka Aleppo ulivyo teketezwa ndani ya wiki moja nawaonea huruma raia wa Ukraine.

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