Huna hadhi ya kutamka neno uchumi wachilia mbali kuuchambua! Matusi na kejeli hazisaidii kufikisha hoja zako kama ni za hovyo. Sanasana inaonesha jinsi gani ulivyo mweupe. Zero. Zip. Nada!!! [emoji2388][emoji778]️
Kuflood market na cheap product ndio njia ya kumuoutcompete mshindani wako!? Bwahahahahaha[emoji16] that is a very sh!ty strategy.
Na kama umetumia china's manufacturing advancement as a case study hapo ndipo ulipopotea. China ameendelea kwenye manufacturing industry sio kwa sababu ya ku flood bidhaa za bei rahisi kwenye soko bali ni kwa sababu ya advantage ya cheap labor aliyokuwa nayo.
Hata hivyo, Huo mfano hauwezi kowork kwenye mafuta na gesi. 'Kuflood market' hakuwezi kuzisaidia nchi za africa kudominate na kuwa na influence kwenye soko la mafuta duniani. Here is why; (only if you can read and comprehend dum[emoji34]y)
1. 1St thing 1st. Maamuzi ya kupunguza supply ya mafuta ni maamuzi yaliyofanywa na Opec plus ambapo nchi za afrika zinazoongoza kwenye uzalishaji wa mafuta ni members. Lzm watekeleze walichokubaliana hawawezi kwenda kinyume. Wao wanajua kwa nini hasa 'kuflood' soko sio health move. Huwezi kuwa na akili kuliko wataalamu wote wa algeria, nigeria, gabon, angola, libya, sudan, s sudan etc combined.
2. Uwezo. Kwa pamoja nchi za afrika hazifikishi hata mapipa milioni 9 kwa siku. Hiki ni kiwango kidogo sana kwa nchi karibia 10 zinazozalisha mafuta kwa wingi afrika. There is no way nchi hizi zitaweza 'kuflood' soko la mafuta duniani. Hicho kiwango kinachozalishwa na hizo nchi za afrika hakitoshi kuflood soko la afrika let alone la dunia. Na sababu kwa nini afrika inazalisha kidogo ni uwekezaji mdogo kwenye uchimbaji. na uwekezaji pamoja na mengi unategemea hifadhi ya mafuta ardhini. Kwa pamoja afrika ina pipa bilioni 125 tu wakati nchi kama saudia ni karibia mara mbili ya kiwango hiko. There is no way on earth nigeria akaweza kupush production yake kutoka pipa milioni kwa siku mpk pipa milioni 10 kwa siku kama saudia. Sio km kuongeza sauti kwenye remote and mindyou nigeria ndio anaongoza kwa afrika.
3. Africa hawezi kuliteka soko la ulaya. Uliposema soko lipo ulaya nikacheka sana. Logistically its impossible africa kuovertake soko la ulaya. Currently nchi za afrika zinazalisha around pipa milioni 7 kwa siku lkn ulaya wananunua kutoka Algeria tu na haizidi 8% ya mahitaji yao. Urusi anauza around 30% ulaya na ni kwasababu ya matumizi ya pipeline. Matumizi ya pipeline ni muhimu kupunguza gharama na kisha bei. Ndio maana unaona hata EU mafuta ya urusi yaliyowekewa vikwazo sio yanayopita kwenye pipeline maana wanayahitaji sana.
4. Economics. Siku zote supply ikiongezeka bei inashuka. Smart move kwenye mafuta ni kupunguza production ili uongeze bei meaning faida zaidi huku kukiwa na slow exhaustion ya reserve. Ukiflood soko na bidhaa utashusha bei sana meaning hasara sana wakati hifadhi yako inaisha kwa kasi. Kbl hata hujapata hiyo influence unayoitaka hutakuwa na mafuta yaliyobaki ya kuuza. Furthermore nchi za afrika zinazozalisha mafuta zinategemea mafuta kwenye pato lao kwa kiasi kikubwa hazitaweza kusurvive bei ikiwa beyond low hata kwa muda mchache.
Endele kutukana...
Sikiliza wewe , Umeongelea suala la cost ya logistics ya kuvukisha hayo mafuta na gesi cheaply hapo Europe Hilo suala linawezekana na nadhani miezi mitatu iliyopita Rais WA France alikuwa Algeria ,na kuna makubaliano ya ujenzi WA TransSaharan gas pipeline ukihusisha Algeria ,Niger na Nigeria na kama hujui ni kwamba France na hizo nchi wameingia na kusign Memorandum of understand ili huo ujenzi kuanza Kwa kushirikiana hayo matatu mara moja .
To move away from relying on Russian energy, the European Union are increasingly turning to Africa for natural gas imports — and Algeria, Niger and Nigeria are looking to cash in.
Algeria, Nigeria and Niger have signed a memorandum of understanding to build a natural gas pipeline across the Sahara desert, Algeria's energy minister Mohamed Arkab said on Thursday.
Na kama hujui Algeria ni third large supplier WA gesi pale Europe ukitoa Russia na Norway.
So in the long run kuongeza supply Kwa customer wake southern Europe hasa spain,Portugal ,Italy , France ,Greece NK itamuwezesha kulishika soko .
Puzzle hapa ni cost ndio Maana nikaongea toka mwanzo ni Kwa nchi hizi za KiAfrica kuangalia jinsi ya kulower production cost na cost ya kuvukisha mzigo pale Europe Kwa gharama ndogo kuliko competitors wao ,
EU si wapuuz wanaweza piga ban mazima gas ya mrusi na wala hawashindwi Kwanza kashawachafua nyongo .
Kama Europe wameionyesha Nia ya kutafta partner mwingine WA kudumu kwanini nchi za kiAfrica wasitake hiyo opportunity kuproduce more na kucover hiyo demand ?
Fvck OPEC , Kila mtu anaangalia maslahi yake , Algeria ,Niger na Nigeria hiyo ni route kabisa to Europe na nchi hizo in combination zina reserve kubwa Tu ya mafuta na gesi ambayo haijawa utilized ili kuziwezesha hizo nchi kujiinua zaidi kiuchumi na kubenefit kama peers wao pale OPEC mfano Russia na Saudia ambavyo wamekuwa wanavyobenefit Kwa miaka mingi . We unafikiri Saudia / Russia wanafanya vile ili kuzifaidisha nchi nyingine ? , Hao Saudia na Russia hata wakipunguza uzalishaji bado output na mauzo Yao Kwa siku ni kubwa na faida wanapata zaidi wao .Au we unafikiri OPEC ni charity Ile ?
Concern yangu ni kwamba Ni muda muafaka sasa ukianzia Nigeria , Niger na Algeria hizo nchi ziangalie maslahi yake kwanza Kabla ya interests za OPEC ambayo mrusi ameipoliticize kufullfill matakwa yake binafsi , akili za kiduwanzi za kusema sijui flani ndio awe anadetermine turnover ya production ni ufala ,kila mtu apambane na customers wake na azalishaje awezavyo , wao mbona Saudia walimgomea Russia mwanzoni mwa mwaka huu kwamba hawatashusha uzalishaji Kabla Putin hajawaconvice hao wasaudi kushusha uzalishaji ili kufullfill political ambitions zake , ni unafiki na unazidumaza hizo nchi zenye resources yet bado ni masikini na hazijaweza kubenefit kama ipasavyo na resources waliyonayo ya fossil fuels.
Sielewi ulichokuwa unapinga ni nini , suala liko pale pale ni Kwa hizo nchi kujenga facilities kama mabomba na refineries na kuongeza production capacity ili kuweza kucompete na washindani kwenye global market ambao Wana migogoro ya kisera na moja ya wanunuzi wakubwa WA nishati hiyo ambayo ni EU .
In 1981, while trying unsuccessfully to block a Soviet natural gas pipeline during a chill in the Cold War, then US President Ronald Reagan warned Europe of its growing reliance on Russian energy, urg