Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

Yes Kama ambavyo Russia aliingia Ukraine akachuku Crimea kwa nguvu and nothing happened. Ameingia Ukraine amechukua majimbo karibia manne hadi sasa hakuna aliyerusha hata manati Russia.
Si mnasema Russia ana nguvu, Turkey kapiga ndege wakafanya vikao yakaisha. Tena ilikuwa inaonya waziwazi Warusi wakaamini wao ni wakubwa sana kwa Uturuki ikawashangaza.

Marekani imemuua mkuu wa IRGC, ni four star GENERALView attachment 2418615
Soleimani alikuwa General wa muhimu kuliko wote jeshini, kauwawa then unapiga blah blah za "casualties kadhaa". Hizo casualties za Marekani kuna vifo au majeruhi? Lengo la Marekani ni kumuua General, jibu la Iran ni kufyatua makombora bila kuua hata mmoja. Akili zinatofautiana
 
Si mnasema Russia ana nguvu, Turkey kapiga ndege wakafanya vikao yakaisha. Tena ilikuwa inaonya waziwazi Warusi wakaamini wao ni wakubwa sana kwa Uturuki ikawashangaza.

Marekani imemuua mkuu wa IRGC, ni four star GENERALView attachment 2418615
Soleimani alikuwa General wa muhimu kuliko wote jeshini, kauwawa then unapiga blah blah za "casualties kadhaa". Hizo casualties za Marekani kuna vifo au majeruhi? Lengo la Marekani ni kumuua General, jibu la Iran ni kufyatua makombora bila kuua hata mmoja. Akili zinatofautiana
Mmeishiwa habari mnaleta zilipendwa
 
Yes Kama ambavyo Russia aliingia Ukraine akachuku Crimea kwa nguvu and nothing happened. Ameingia Ukraine amechukua majimbo karibia manne hadi sasa hakuna aliyerusha hata manati Russia.
Hayo majimbo anayachukuaje wakati wazee wa kazi wanapiga selfie [emoji1702][emoji1702][emoji1702][emoji1702][emoji1702][emoji1702][emoji1702][emoji1702][emoji1702][emoji1702] kwenye hayo majimbo.., hata hawajari Ile mikwara ya referendum [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
1668430230449.jpg


Sent from my Infinix X660B using JamiiForums mobile app
 
Naunga mkono hoja,ingawa Russia amejifunza kitu ukraine maana alichoyegemea na alichokikuta ni mbingu na ardhi kwa sasa anatapa tapa kuokoteza visiraha kwa nchi maskini kama korea kaskazini,kwa hakika hatawahi kumvamia jirani yeyote,dharau zimemwishia.
 
Kama Makombora yamerushwa na Ukraine,nadhani NATO wanatakiwa kumvamia Ukraine Kwa kushambulia mipaka ya NATO!Au article ziko Kwa ajili ya Urusi tu[emoji2][emoji2][emoji2]
Kiongozi wa NATO ameshasema nikweli makombora yaliyo angukia Poland yamerushwa na Ukraine, lakini kiongozi huyo wa NATO amesema, late me be clear, Makombora yamerushwa na Ukraine, lakini lawama zote zinakwenda kwa Russia kwasababu wao Russia ndio walio anzisha hiyo "SENSELESS" WAR.
 
View attachment 2418634

Rais wa Jamhuri ya Muungano wa Tanzania Mhe. Samia Suluhu Hassan akipokea Hati za Utambulisho kutoka kwa Balozi Mteule wa Jamhuri ya Kiislamu ya Irani nchini Tanzania Mhe. Hossein Alvand Behineh, Ikulu Chamwino Mkoani Dodoma tarehe 16 Novemba, 2022.
Viongozi wetu wangekuwa na akili wangekaa na hawa jamaa na kuwaomba technology mbalimbali.
 
Kuhusu mlipuko katika Plonand:
ejiltalk.org
As Far As We Know, There Has Been No Armed Attack Against Poland
Written by Marko Milanovic
Yesterday a missile struck a village in Poland, near the Ukrainian border, prompting immediate fears of escalation and of a more direct entry of NATO states into the Russian/Ukranian armed conflict. As I write this it remains unclear whether the missile was fired by Russian or by Ukranian armed forces. However, US President Biden and other US officials have expressed doubts that Russia fired the missile, while Russia itself has denied attacking Polish territory and asserted that the missile came from a Ukrainian S-300 air defence system.
Again, as things stand the facts are yet to be conclusively established. But from what we know at the moment it seems unlikely that Russia deliberately targeted Polish territory, including because it had nothing to gain and much to lose from such an action.
Two hypotheses seem more likely:
(1) that the missile was indeed fired by Russia, despite Russia’s protests to the contrary, but at a target in Ukraine and that it somehow got misdirected, through operator error or mechanical failure;
(2) that the missile, in fact, came from a Ukranian S-300 system that was fired in response to Russia’s ongoing missile strikes against Ukraine, but that again somehow got misdirected and hit Polish territory.
If either of these hypotheses is true, force was used against Poland, by Russia or Ukraine respectively, in a manner contrary to Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, and in violation of Polish territorial sovereignty. But the force did not rise to the level of an ‘armed attack’ within the meaning of Article 51 of the Charter, because Poland was not targeted intentionally. Rather, the force used against Poland was a ‘frontier incident’ within the meaning given to that term by the International Court of Justice in cases such as Nicaragua and Oil Platforms. Accordingly, the right of individual or collective self-defence under Article 51 does not arise, and Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty is therefore not applicable either.
There is little doubt that the notion of an armed attack in Article 51 includes not just considerations of gravity and scale of the force used, but also those of intentionality. (For probably the most comprehensive treatment of the subject I would direct readers to Tom Ruys, ‘Armed Attack’ and Article 51 of the Charter, at 158-168.) States have generally not treated accidental uses of force as armed attacks giving rise to self-defence – when its embassy in Belgrade was destroyed by NATO in 1999, for example, which NATO explained as an accident, China did not assert that it was a victim of an armed attack. To be clear here, the intention required by the notion of an armed attack excludes considerations of purpose or motive, but is simply one that the organs of state A have directed a hostile action against state B. On the hypotheses above, neither Russia nor Ukraine had such intent to attack Poland. And even if the notion of armed attack was construed as a purely objective one, contrary to what I have said above without incorporating any element of intentionality, in the case of an accidental spill-over scenario such as this one there would be no necessity for Poland and its allies to respond in self-defence by using force.
That Poland was likely not the victim of an armed attack does not mean that it has not been wronged. Prohibited force, in the sense of Article 2(4) of the Charter, and the duty to respect sovereignty, do not require a similar element of intentionality. Depending on who fired the missile, either Russia or Ukraine would have the duty to provide adequate reparation to Poland, including measures of satisfaction and compensation, especially because two lives were lost.
That said, a particular issue arises with respect to Ukraine (but not Russia): on the hypothesis that Ukraine was responding to a Russian attack and launched S-300 missiles in the exercise of its own right to self-defence, which in error spilled over onto Polish territory, would Ukraine be able to rely on self-defence against Russia as a circumstance precluding wrongfulness vis-a-vis Poland, thus obviating any duty to provide reparation? This would essentially be a ‘mistake of fact’ scenario in Ukraine’s own use of force in self-defence, which I have extensively previously examined on the blog here, here and here. To put a long story short, on one view Ukraine would be responsible for any errors its organs and agents have made, however innocent, and Poland in particular could not be expected to bear the cost of a use of force against it. On another view, an honest and reasonable mistake of fact could operate as an excuse or justification – if the relevant Ukrainian agents did all that could reasonably be expected of them to prevent the S-300 system from hitting Polish territory while defending Ukraine against Russian attacks, Ukraine’s own reliance on self-defence would preclude the wrongfulness of the injury done to Poland. (My own view is that the former option is at least generally the right one in the ad bellum context; this is of course also an issue that arises in other contexts, especially in responses to cyber attacks). It will be very interesting to observe what legal positions the affected states eventually take on this matter, in the case the hypothesis of a misdirected Ukranian S-300 strike ultimately proves correct.
Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Ukraine wenyewe ndio hawa hawataki kukubali?
20221116_175700.jpg
 
Hatua hiyo inaweza kuzua mzozo wa moja kwa moja kati ya Urusi na NATO, msemaji wa serikali alisema

Ujerumani na washirika wake wa NATO hawana mpango wa kujaribu kufunga anga ya Ukraine kufuatia mlipuko mbaya wa kombora katika kijiji karibu na mpaka wa Poland na Ukraine, Berlin ilisema Jumatano.

Akizungumza na waandishi wa habari, msemaji Wolfgang Buchner amebainisha kuwa hatua hiyo inaweza kuzusha mapigano ya moja kwa moja kati ya Urusi na vikosi vya NATO. "Pamoja na washirika wetu wote tulikubaliana kwamba tunataka kuepusha kuongezeka kwa vita hivi nchini Ukraine," alisema.

Christian Thiels, msemaji wa wizara ya ulinzi ya Ujerumani, alisema Berlin ilipendekeza kuisaidia Poland kushika doria katika anga yake. Kulingana na afisa huyo, ndege za Ujerumani za Eurofighter zinaweza kutumwa mapema "kesho."

Kauli hii ilikuja baada ya Waziri wa Mambo ya Nje wa Finland Pekka Haavisto kusema kuwa hakatai mjadala ndani ya NATO kuhusu kufungwa kwa anga ya Ukraine. Helsinki si mwanachama wa kambi hiyo, lakini ametuma maombi ya kujiunga.

Akizungumza katika mkutano na waandishi wa habari, Haavisto aliulizwa iwapo NATO inaweza kuongeza uwezekano wa kufunga anga ya Ukraine, ikizingatiwa kwamba mzozo nchini humo umesababisha makombora kuruka katika eneo la taifa jirani.

"Nina uhakika kufungwa kwa anga kutajadiliwa," alisema. Ikiwa hii itatokea, Haavisto aliendelea, hii ingemaanisha kwamba "kila ndege" inayoingia katika eneo kama hilo itapigwa risasi.

Walakini, alikiri kwamba itakuwa ngumu sana kufanya operesheni kama hiyo. "Ni uchunguzi mkubwa wa angani na misheni kubwa ya uchunguzi wa kijeshi katika nchi kubwa kama Ukraine. Kuna changamoto kubwa za kijeshi," alisema waziri huyo na kuongeza kuwa "chaguo mbalimbali zinazingatiwa kulinda Ukraine na raia wake."

Akitoa sauti ya tahadhari, Haavisto pia alijiepusha kutoa lawama kwa mlipuko wa kombora ulioua watu wawili katika kijiji cha Przewodow cha Poland, karibu na mpaka wa Ukraine. Pia alitoa maoni yake kuhusu ripoti kwamba kuna uwezekano mkubwa kwamba kombora hilo lilirushwa kutoka Ukraine na sio Urusi. "Kwa kweli, katikati ya uhasama, inaweza kutokea kila wakati usifanye kitu kwa makusudi," alisema.

Siku ya Jumanne, vyombo vya habari vya ndani viliripoti kwamba wafanyikazi wawili wa shamba katika kijiji hicho walikufa. Wizara ya Mambo ya Nje ya Poland ilisema "kombora lililotengenezwa na Urusi" lilikuwa nyuma ya tukio hilo. Baadaye, hata hivyo, Rais wa Poland Andrzej Duda alidai kwamba kombora hilo labda lilikuwa kombora la ulinzi wa anga la Ukrain.

Wizara ya Ulinzi ya Urusi imekanusha kuhusika, ikisema Moscow haikufanya shambulizi lolote dhidi ya maeneo karibu na mpaka wa Poland na Ukrain siku hiyo. Siku ya Jumatano, wizara hiyo ilisema wataalam wa kijeshi wa Urusi walichambua picha kutoka eneo la tukio na kubaini sehemu za kombora "kama sehemu ya kombora kutoka kwa mfumo wa ulinzi wa anga wa S-300 unaotumiwa na Jeshi la Wanahewa la Ukraine."

Nb:
Hawa majamaa mbona waliweka Libya na Iraq??. Waweke tu aisee !!!. Inshort wanaiogopa sana RUSSIA Ha ha ha haa
#KyivShelling



 
Mmmh Ukraine kama zinatimia kwa head waangalie namna yakunusuru Taifa lao kuwa uwanja wa kujaribia silaha

Kama bomu limepiga Poland na limeua wawili ila anaowategemea hawajaichulia kama sababu ya kumpiga adui yake iwe kapiga au hajapiga

Basi ajue yeye ndio kafanywa punching bag.
 
This is the first time a NATO country has been directly hit during the conflict. NATO head Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia bears "ultimate responsibility" for the incident, "as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine."
Katika sheria ya kimataifa hali kama hiyo imeshaangaliwa na kujadiliwa tangu miaka mingi. Kama inaonekana si shambulio la kimakusudi, haihesabiki kama tendo la kivita. Ajali au makosa yalitokea katika vita nyingi tu, si ajabu. Hii ni kweli, kama ilikuwa roketi ya Kirusi iliyoenda hovyo, au kama ni roketi za SAM za Ukraine (pia silaha za Kirusi!) zilizoenda hovyo.
 
Naunga mkono hoja,ingawa Russia amejifunza kitu ukraine maana alichoyegemea na alichokikuta ni mbingu na ardhi kwa sasa anatapa tapa kuokoteza visiraha kwa nchi maskini kama korea kaskazini,kwa hakika hatawahi kumvamia jirani yeyote,dharau zimemwishia.
Umeongea kwa Mihemko na kwa 'hearsay' bila facts na proof.

What i said ndo reality Zele angelijua hili asingeingia vitani. Alitegemwa NATO wangeaet foot kupigana ardhini kwake.

Anachofanya Russia ni kumuwahi asijiunge na kuhakikisha hatohiunga at any cost
 
Kiongozi wa NATO ameshasema nikweli makombora yaliyo angukia Poland yamerushwa na Ukraine, lakini kiongozi huyo wa NATO amesema, late me be clear, Makombora yamerushwa na Ukraine, lakini lawama zote zinakwenda kwa Russia kwasababu wao Russia ndio walio anzisha hiyo "SENSELESS" WAR.
Kwahiyo Russia anaishia kulaumiwa tu!Nilidhani watafanya jambo!
 

UPDATED 7:20 AM EST (SEE BOTTOM) -- Poland WITHDRAWS Request for Emergency NATO Meeting; Biden Says "Unlikely" Missile Fired from Russia​

WORLD HAL TURNER 16 NOVEMBER 2022 HITS: 9126
UPDATED 7:20 AM EST (SEE BOTTOM) -- Poland **WITHDRAWS** Request for Emergency NATO Meeting; Biden Says Unlikely Missile Fired from Russia

After at least one missile seemed to have impacted in Poland near the Ukraine Border, Poland invoked Article FOUR of the NATO Treaty to seek "consultation" with other NATO Members. That invocation has been WITHDRAWN, but NATO Ministers will discuss the incident at their regular meeting today.
US (Illegitimate) President, Joe Biden, told reporters that based on the trajectory of the missile, "It is unlikely" the missile was fired from Russia. Two citizens of Poland died in an explosion when a missile impacted yesterday.
Additional updates coming LIVE at this hour, 5:45 AM eastern US time, Wednesday, November 16, 2022 . . .
President Joe Biden responded to a deadly missile strike in NATO member Poland by convening an “emergency” meeting of world leaders from both the Group of Seven and several NATO countries early Wednesday.
The group was already together in Bali, Indonesia, for a G20 summit and met around a large roundtable in the ballroom of Biden’s hotel, according to the Associated Press.
While Biden initially gave no response when questioned about the strikes at the roundtable, he later confirmed that preliminary evidence suggested the missile was not fired from Russia at all. “We’re going to make sure exactly what happened. I don’t want to say until we completely investigate, but it’s unlikely, in the minds of the trajectory, that it was fired from Russia. But we’ll see
As fully detailed and reported yesterday (Story Here), Russia launched over 100 missiles at Ukraine on Tuesday, striking targets all over the country. Late Tuesday night, over 79% of Ukraine had no electric power.
One of the collateral issues created during a large Russian missile strike upon Ukraine yesterday is that the Barátság crude oil pipeline has stopped. There is no longer any electricity from Ukraine to power the oil pipeline pumps.

Ukraine has been using stolen Russian oil to keep their war machine going. Now, Ukraine reports the pipeline is down and Ukraine only has about 90 days of oil remaining for itself.
Those two little words, "for itself" have very serious meaning. The pipeline provided oil to other countries and now, immediately, they get none.

Affected countries

POLAND
CZECH
HUNGARY
SOLVAKIA
PIPELINE MAP:


According to information from the controller of the Ukrainian oil pipeline system, a Russian artillery shell hit a transformer station in Ukraine close to the Belarusian border, which supplies electricity for the operation of one of the pumping stations of the Barátság crude oil pipeline.

As a result of the hit, crude oil deliveries on the pipeline to Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia were temporarily stopped.

“We are following the events with attention, and together with the Ukrainian partners we are investigating the conditions for restarting the Friendship pipeline,” read the statement of Mol.

The Russians are bombarding the territory of Ukraine with large forces, and transformer stations are the main targets. Shutting down electric is a military goal so as to stop Ukraine's trains, thereby making it impossible for Ukraine to transport men, equipment, and ammunition for the war.

Ukraine has enough fresh crude oil for 90 days, which it can use in its refineries. Alternatively, they can also transport crude oil via the Adriatic pipeline. The 90 day reserve is -theoretically- sufficient to organize the southern deliveries.

UPDATE 6:10 AM EST --
US initial findings are that the missile that fell in Poland was fired by the Ukrainian military in response to incoming Russian missile.
Russian Security Council: "Poland's missile incident shows that Western interventions in Ukraine could lead to a world war."

Russian Defense Ministry: On November 15, the Russian armed forces inflicted a massive strike with high-precision long-range air and sea-based weapons on the military command system of Ukraine. All missiles hit exactly the designated targets, all objects are hit.
Poland Summoned Russian Ambassador
In the immediate aftermath of the missile impact, Poland "Summoned" the Russia Ambassador for an explanation. Here is the announcement from the Poland Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

Russia DENIES
The Russian Ministry of Defense was blunt and fast with its public statement: "No strikes were made against targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border by Russian means of destruction."
So here we all are, about ten hours after the fact, and things seem to be calming down quite fast. Poland has WITHDRAWN its request for Article Four emergency consultations. NATO Ministers will discuss the incident at their regular meeting today.
Countless sources all over the Internet are showing photos of various missile parts, many of which seem to show that the remnants of the missile in Poland seem to be from a Ukrainian Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) likely fired by Ukraine at incoming Russian missiles.

Hal Turner Analysis
In war, things go wrong. Missiles go off course. Missiles get hit by other things and malfunction. When they come down, they still come down with a bang. But in this case, in Poland, it now appears that this was an ACCIDENT. Either a malfunctioning, or perhaps damaged missile went off course and hit Poland.
Yes, two people have been killed, and that is tragic. However, one does not start World War 3 between NATO and Russia over what clearly seems to be an accident.
The final proof will be whatever it will be, but for right now, things seem to be calming down. Thank God.

UPDATE 7:18 AM EST --
IT'S OFFICIAL!

The Government of Poland is going to communicate to its NATO partners on Wednesday that the missile that hit its territory on Tuesday and caused two deaths was fired by the Army Ukrainian, a European diplomatic source CONFIRMS.
According to the source, who asked for anonymity, Warsaw will not invoke Article IV of the North Atlantic Treaty before its Alliance partners, which provides for consultations between allies when threatened "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties".
The Polish Executive would have already contacted its NATO allies to confirm this information, according to which it was a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile that deviated from its trajectory.
Already in a press appearance last morning, Polish President Andrzej Duda declared that what happened "is unlikely to be repeated" and that it is not the beginning of an organized or intentional attack.
Some forces of the Polish Army and other security forces in the country have been placed on high alert and in a message this Wednesday, the Polish Defense Minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, reported that "selected air defense systems and military units, from both ground and armed forces, are on high alert."
"The Polish army is monitoring the situation. We are in constant contact with our allies, "concludes the minister's statement.
After registering an explosion produced by a missile in the Polish town of Przewodów ( east ), a few kilometers from the border with Ukraine, which killed two people, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki appeared in the press last night to ask his compatriots for calm and alerted against the proliferation of false news, provocation and disinformation "that only benefit Russia"
 
Mmmh Ukraine kama zinatimia kwa head waangalie namna yakunusuru Taifa lao kuwa uwanja wa kujaribia silaha

Kama bomu limepiga Poland na limeua wawili ila anaowategemea hawajaichulia kama sababu ya kumpiga adui yake iwe kapiga au hajapiga

Basi ajue yeye ndio kafanywa punching bag.

Wamekana kauli ya Zelensky hadharani!!!!

Ni dharau sana hii.

Pia wanatafuta namna ya kukataa kama atakuwa na nia ya "False Flag" attacks ili kuwachonganisha NATO na Russia wavaane.
 
Back
Top Bottom