Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

[emoji1097] Estonian intelligence chief Margo Grosberg said that the actions of Ukrainian troops during the counteroffensive and signs of complications for the Russian occupation army may indicate that Ukraine can expect a major success at the front in the near future

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South Korea will offer assistance worth $52 billion to Ukraine's reconstruction projects, the Korea Herald reported on July 14, citing South Korea's presidential office.

The Ukrainian government has requested the involvement of South Korean companies in around 5,000 projects, estimated at $20 billion, said presidential economic secretary Choi Sang-mok.

Learn more: South Korea to offer $52 billion for Ukraine's reconstruction projects

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[emoji1097] Estonian intelligence chief Margo Grosberg said that the actions of Ukrainian troops during the counteroffensive and signs of complications for the Russian occupation army may indicate that Ukraine can expect a major success at the front in the near future

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"We are fighting for freedom and independence of Ukraine. For dignity, for the right to life for all our people, all over Ukraine. Ukraine will always be grateful to everyone who fights for it. To our soldiers. To our heroes", Volodymyr Zelensky.

Photos by: Kostiantyn Liberov and Vlada Liberova, Slava Ratynski, Alexx Babenko, Serhii Mykhalchuk, David Guttenfelder, Erçin Ertürk, Manu Brabo.

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[emoji298]Poland and South Korea have signed memorandum on Ukraine's reconstruction

President Yoon Suk Yeol, who is on an official visit to Warsaw, held a summit meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda.

The two leaders signed a memorandum of understanding and cooperation on the reconstruction of Ukraine, The Chosun Ilbo reported.

"We agreed that South Korea and Poland can be optimal partners on Ukraine's reconstruction," the South Korean leader said.

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[emoji298]Ukraine will receive more than EUR1.5 billion in military aid from its international partners, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said.

"SCALP long-range missiles, Leopard tanks, additional Patriots, F-16 pilot training - these are just some of the things that can be announced publicly," Reznikov wrote.

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Pole MKUU nipe matokeo huko
Matokeo ni kwamba Major General Ivan Popov wa 58th Army ya Southern Military District amepumzishwa majukumu. Sababu wanaijua Shoigu na Gerasimov.

Na vilevile Lt. General Oleg Tsokov kamanda mkuu msaidizi wa Southern Military District ambayo ndiyo inahusika zaidi na vita hii ameagwa. Storm Shadow ilimpiga akiwa hotelini, September mwaka jana aliumizwa vitani ila this time hakusalimika
20230714_164517.jpg


Russia inafiwa sana na majenerali. Sababu wanapenda kuzubaa frontline na hawatumii secured communication hivyo zinakuwa intercepted na high ranking target zinatafutwa. Hata Dmitry Rogozin alishambuliwa na HIMARS sababu hii.
Alafu General Surovikin yuko wapi mbona wiki ya tatu yuko mafichoni
 
Russia inafiwa sana na majenerali. Sababu wanapenda kuzubaa frontline na hawatumii secured communication hivyo zinakuwa intercepted na high ranking target zinatafutwa. Hata Dmitry Rogozin alishambuliwa na HIMARS sababu hii.
Kwenye upande wa mawasiliano ambayo yapo secured, Urusi ina udhaifu sana tu au sababu bado wanategemea vifaa vya kimagharibi ambavyo bado hawavimudu vyema ?
 
Endelea kupata mwendelezo wa vita
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in the #Gulyaypole Section until 16:00 on 14 July 2023⚡️

🗓 Today
, storm assault squads attacked Ukrainian strongholds near #Gulyaypole. Russian fighters occupied several landings north of #Marfopol, advancing to the reservoir near #Krasnoye.

💥 The Artillerists of the RF Armed Forces are actively supporting the assaulting groups with fire. To all appearances, the AFU did not expect the sorties of Russian troops in this area, which is not surprising.

📌 There has been no active fighting near #Gulyaypole for a long time. The last most massive attacks of the AFU were last year, when Russian troops destroyed an AFU tank column.

🗺 High Resolution: 🇬🇧 MAP; 🇷🇺 MAP
https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/07/13/20230713161642-5e7409d2.jpg
📜 RYBAR; 14 Jul 2023, 16:23

t.me/sitreports /@rybar/#smo/
Join SITREP🔺Map Reports - Top Videos - Analyses
 
Matokeo ni kwamba Major General Ivan Popov wa 58th Army ya Southern Military District amepumzishwa majukumu. Sababu wanaijua Shoigu na Gerasimov.

Na vilevile Lt. General Oleg Tsokov kamanda mkuu msaidizi wa Southern Military District ambayo ndiyo inahusika zaidi na vita hii ameagwa. Storm Shadow ilimpiga akiwa hotelini, September mwaka jana aliumizwa vitani ila this time hakusalimikaView attachment 2687876

Russia inafiwa sana na majenerali. Sababu wanapenda kuzubaa frontline na hawatumii secured communication hivyo zinakuwa intercepted na high ranking target zinatafutwa. Hata Dmitry Rogozin alishambuliwa na HIMARS sababu hii.
Alafu General Surovikin yuko wapi mbona wiki ya tatu yuko mafichoni
😂😂😂 unachekesha mzee.
Maandishi yamejaa machozi.
 
Matokeo ni kwamba Major General Ivan Popov wa 58th Army ya Southern Military District amepumzishwa majukumu. Sababu wanaijua Shoigu na Gerasimov.

Na vilevile Lt. General Oleg Tsokov kamanda mkuu msaidizi wa Southern Military District ambayo ndiyo inahusika zaidi na vita hii ameagwa. Storm Shadow ilimpiga akiwa hotelini, September mwaka jana aliumizwa vitani ila this time hakusalimikaView attachment 2687876

Russia inafiwa sana na majenerali. Sababu wanapenda kuzubaa frontline na hawatumii secured communication hivyo zinakuwa intercepted na high ranking target zinatafutwa. Hata Dmitry Rogozin alishambuliwa na HIMARS sababu hii.
Alafu General Surovikin yuko wapi mbona wiki ya tatu yuko mafichoni
Umeamia kwenye majenerali [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
 
Chinese: Russia is capable of destroying NATO and wiping the US off the face of the earth

In a communiqué adopted at the end of the Vilnius summit, NATO accused China of helping Russia in Ukraine, Guancha reports. The alliance received a harsh response from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, which recalled NATO Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying warned the West against trying to create an analogue of NATO in Asia. It sounded menacing.

“We have not forgotten NATO’s bloody debt to China for the bombing of our embassy in Yugoslavia. The countries of the Asia-Pacific region are against the military machine,, ,
 

Putin is prizing loyalty over competence​

By Sean Bell, military analyst
General Valery Gerasimov is the third most powerful man in Russia after the Defence Secretary and President.

He has been Chief of the Russian General Staff since November 2012, and has held overall responsibility for Russian operations in Ukraine for the past 6 months.

He is a long-term ally and friend of President Putin.
However, following Yevgeny Prigozhin's abortive rebellion just over a fortnight ago, Mr Putin might have wanted to purge all those senior military leaders who had anything to do with the potential coup, as brutal predecessors would have done.
And, General Gerasimov had not been seen in public since early June.
General Valery Gerasimov

General Valery Gerasimov
Media reporting this weekend suggested that he had been replaced as senior commander of forces in Ukraine, but on Sunday Russian state TV carried a video of General Gerasimov directing his senior military commanders, and he was introduced using both his military roles, suggesting he has been retained in post, at least for now.
But why?

Yevgeny Prigozhin's high profile feud with the Russian MOD was primarily focused on General Gerasimov (and Sergei Shoigu the Russian Defence Minister) who Prigozhin described as incompetent and corrupt.

Prigozhin claimed that this prompted his march on Moscow, and that he had no intention of mounting a coup against the president.

Mr Putin will be well aware of the poor performance of his military forces in Ukraine, and he could have used the rebellion as a catalyst for reshuffling his military senior leadership.

However, instead Mr Putin has evidently prioritised loyalty over competence, and retained his senior leadership team.

Putin should have his primary focus on winning the war in Ukraine; however, by prioritising loyalty over competence, Putin has demonstrated that the rebellion represented the biggest threat to his two-decade long grip on power, and that behind the thin veneer of "business as usual", cracks are starting to appear in the Putin empire.

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Hilo ndio tatizo la ushoshalisti, ndio maana huishia kupata matokeo mabovu hata kwenye sekta nyingine muhimu.

T14 Armata
Mtu ambaye alitakiwa aliokoe jeshi la Urusi kuondokana na incompetency, rushwa, ukiritimba na matatizo mengine ni Anatoly Serdyukov. Huyu hata CV yake haidanganyi, kwanza alipitia kwenye kuongoza biashara zaidi kuliko siasa. Alivyoingia wizara ya ulinzi alileta mabadiliko makubwa kwa muda mchache akisaidia jeshi na military industrial production hasa renovations na upgrades. Miaka yake michache kama mitano aliyokaa jeshi likawa limenyooka baadae maofisa wakamchukia na Putin hakumtaka sana sababu ni competent na ana akili nyingi
Anatoliy_Eduardovich_Serdyukov_2018.jpg

Jamaa alikuwa hataki maofisa kukaa na hela, hela zinakaa na civilians alafu alipenda auditing aliyozoea kwenye biashara binafsi. Matokeo yake rushwa na ubadhirifu akaudhibiti na kesi za maofisa zikawa nyingi. Tendering ya silaha, orders na awards akafanya ziwe open kuwe na competition na iwe fair. Alafu hakuogopa kuchukua vitu vizuri kutoka nje, ndio aliondokana na hiyo aibu. Ndio aliwaleta Rheinmetall na makampuni mengine ya Ufaransa yalete teknolojia kubwa kwenye Murino training centre kambi kubwa pekee ya kisasa Urusi ambapo walifunga laser rangefinders, monitors, simulation rooms na vitu muhimu kwenye kufundisha tank crews, snipers na infantry. Hizo facilities zinasaidia pakubwa mafunzo yaliyokomaa ya wanajeshi wa Urusi.

Hawa viongozi waliofuata umuhimu ni ndio mzee kuliko uwezo wa kazi. Mfano nani anaona kazi ya Waziri Mkuu wa Urusi sasa hivi Bwana Mikhail Mishustin? Miaka mitatu sasa ila hata kusikika ni nadra.
 
Kwenye upande wa mawasiliano ambayo yapo secured, Urusi ina udhaifu sana tu au sababu bado wanategemea vifaa vya kimagharibi ambavyo bado hawavimudu vyema ?
Russia modernization yao haikufanyika kila sehemu na kati ya eneo walienda taratibu ni hapo kwenye secured communication. Radio zao za Azart latest generation ni nzuri ila wanasema ni ngumu kutumika bila training, kwenye mawasiliano kuna mambo mengi sijui frequency queuing, kubadilisha channel, kubadili frequency ukitambua imekuwa eavesdropped na mengine
image.png

Alafu hizo Azart ni chache sana walizitoa kwa tactical level ya makamanda na kwa baadhi ya special forces. Matokeo yake hazipo familiar na wengi na haziendani na radio zilizokuwepo hivyo zinalazimika kutumika chini ya uwezo wake.

Na bado modernization ya Ratnik ambayo mwanajeshi wa Russia angepewa communication gears, guards na makorokoro mengine haikufanyika. Vyote hivi vinataka gharama
4thTankDivisionOpenDay17p2-08.jpg

Hadi vita imeanza Warusi wameonekana na radio za kiraia kama Baofeng na Motorola. Hapa wanatumia Trans-European Trunked Radio (TETRA) kwenye Azart wakati huu ni mfumo wa kiraia wa Ulaya kuongoza hasa madereva wa malori
TETRA-Screen-Capture-Twitter.jpg

Mfumo huu unatakiwa kuwepo jeshini maana unatumika na madereva wa kiraia Urusi na hata taasisi kama zimamoto na emergency services wanao ila kuutumia kwenye vita inashangaza.

Kuna clip MoD yao ilitoa ikaonyesha wamefunga radio communication kwenye helikopta, yani sio built in sasa sijui ya ndani ilikuwa imeharibika.
Hata hivyo Russia kwenye electronics, foundry na microchips they are nowhere to be found. Wakati wenzao wanazungumzia 3nm chip, Russia naamini hata kwa 14nm watateseka.

Baada ya vita wanatakiwa wapige modernization kali sana. Walipotoka Chechen wars walifanya hivyo, walipotoka Georgia uko ndio walikuwa na uozo mkubwa walifanya hivyo, pale Syria walitest vitu vingi na baada ya Ukraine siasa zikiwaruhusu watafanya marekebisho mengi. Gerasimov muda wa kustaafu jeshini umeshafika, Shoigu kakaa wizarani miaka 11 sasa hivyo ukiwatoa baada ya vita sio mbaya kuleta mawazo mapya.
 
Russia modernization yao haikufanyika kila sehemu na kati ya eneo walienda taratibu ni hapo kwenye secured communication. Radio zao za Azart latest generation ni nzuri ila wanasema ni ngumu kutumika bila training, kwenye mawasiliano kuna mambo mengi sijui frequency queuing, kubadilisha channel, kubadili frequency ukitambua imekuwa eavesdropped na mengineView attachment 2688070
Alafu hizo Azart ni chache sana walizitoa kwa tactical level ya makamanda na kwa baadhi ya special forces. Matokeo yake hazipo familiar na wengi na haziendani na radio zilizokuwepo hivyo zinalazimika kutumika chini ya uwezo wake.

Na bado modernization ya Ratnik ambayo mwanajeshi wa Russia angepewa communication gears, guards na makorokoro mengine haikufanyika. Vyote hivi vinataka gharamaView attachment 2688069
Hadi vita imeanza Warusi wameonekana na radio za kiraia kama Baofeng na Motorola. Hapa wanatumia Trans-European Trunked Radio (TETRA) kwenye Azart wakati huu ni mfumo wa kiraia wa Ulaya kuongoza hasa madereva wa maloriView attachment 2688074
Mfumo huu unatakiwa kuwepo jeshini maana unatumika na madereva wa kiraia Urusi na hata taasisi kama zimamoto na emergency services wanao ila kuutumia kwenye vita inashangaza.

Kuna clip MoD yao ilitoa ikaonyesha wamefunga radio communication kwenye helikopta, yani sio built in sasa sijui ya ndani ilikuwa imeharibika.
Hata hivyo Russia kwenye electronics, foundry na microchips they are nowhere to be found. Wakati wenzao wanazungumzia 3nm chip, Russia naamini hata kwa 14nm watateseka.

Baada ya vita wanatakiwa wapige modernization kali sana. Walipotoka Chechen wars walifanya hivyo, walipotoka Georgia uko ndio walikuwa na uozo mkubwa walifanya hivyo, pale Syria walitest vitu vingi na baada ya Ukraine siasa zikiwaruhusu watafanya marekebisho mengi. Gerasimov muda wa kustaafu jeshini umeshafika, Shoigu kakaa wizarani miaka 11 sasa hivyo ukiwatoa baada ya vita sio mbaya kuleta mawazo mapya.
Kwenye logistics ndio balaa zaidi, wanahitaji kuanza upya kabisa ila nadhani 'logistics' zinahitaji gharama sana hivyo kuzimudu kwa nchi kama Russia bado sio rahisi kwao.

Air force yao ni kama imekuwa 'dormant' kwa sasa, yaani inafanya kazi kama extension ya artillery haiwezi kufanya kazi independent kwa kupeleleza na kushambulia adui kivyake ndio maana hata SEAD iliwashinda, hapa pia wanakazi kubwa Sana.

Urban warfare imeonekana ngumu sana na kwa infantry wao nadhani uzoefu unachangia hata 'US' kule Iraq haikuwa rahisi kwa wale insurgents kule Fallujah na Mosul.

Kwenye naval warfare bado pagumu sana nadhani wana safari ndefu mno tangu ile Moskova kuzama na wao kushindwa kufanya naval blockade na baadae kuficha meli zao hili ni doa kubwa.
 
Wapiganaji wa Ukraine walilokuwa wanaleta usumbufu Karibu na Burkimut wachukuliwa mateka

IMG_20230714_203133_564.jpg
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🇷🇺🇺🇦Captured AFU soldiers that are storming Kleshcheevka.

Also soldiers of the special forces "AKHMAT" together with the 346th special forces brigade and the fourth brigade of the second army corps of the LPR captured another batch of military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Deputy commander of the 2nd Army Corps of the RF Armed Forces Apti Alaudinov is with them

Prisoners of the 419th separate rifle battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. These eight people will remain alive, thanks to the fact that they were captured. For the Ukrainian military, surrender is the road to a new life. Each of them has a chance to stay alive and not fight for the unhealthy interests of the Ukrainian leadership.

🔴@DDGeopolitics
 
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