How are Ukrainian drones able to fly 500 miles to Moscow undetected?
By Sean Bell, military analyst
Volodymyr Zelenskyy had warned that he intends to take the war to Russia, and although Ukraine does not comment on such attacks, there has been a marked increase in the number of drone attacks on the Russian capital Moscow.
How is Ukraine managing to mount such attacks and why is Russia apparently unable to protect the capital?
Small drones tend to be controlled directly from a hand-held controller and can only operate within a relatively limited range from the controller transmitter. However, longer-range drones need to carry more fuel so are larger, and can either be controlled via satellite link or can be pre-programmed on the ground to enable them to operate with a greater degree of autonomy.
Larger drones - or remotely piloted air systems (RPAS) - can carry a range of sensors, transmitters and even explosives, but most still operate at relatively low speeds, use some form of propeller propulsion (rather than jet engine) and are therefore relatively vulnerable to ground-based defences - the larger the drone, the easier it is to see and thus target.
Moscow is 500 miles from the Ukrainian border, and so any Ukrainian attack drone would need to have significant range, and minimise the risk of detection.
Modern RPAS can have their routes pre-programmed using a Mission Planning Capability, which enables the mission planner to exploit undulating terrain en route to the target thus minimising the opportunity for enemy radar to detect the platform - even modern defence radars cannot see though mountains! This pre-programmed route can also avoid known Russian military defences and increase the element of surprise.
Any attack is also planned to be conducted in the early hours of the morning when those manning defences are generally at their least responsive. And, most drones are significantly cheaper than manned platforms, so attacks often involve multiple drones to increase the probability that at least one will get through - swamping defences.
The rapid advances in sensor technology have made many sensors cheaper, lighter and smaller, so rather than rely on jammable-GPS signals, terrain-matching technology enables more autonomous and survivable drone operation.
Regardless, drones remain relatively vulnerable, so for high-value targets a different attack mechanism is required. But Ukrainian attacks on Moscow are primarily designed to have a psychological effect, and even if the drone does not hit its intended target, it often still has the desired strategic effect.
Mr Zelenskyy will be targeting the Russian capital to increase public concern that Vladimir Putin is unable to protect his population from the wide impact of his war in Ukraine. This is unlikely to prove decisive in the near-term, but all serves to undermine the Russian president's credibility.
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