Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

Nafikiri kila mmoja wetu anatambua kuwa malengo na dhamira ya Mrusi ilikuwa vita iwe ni ya muda mfupi zaidi iwezekanavyo na pia kutoa fundisho kwa Zelensky na dunia nzima hasa NATO lakini imekuwa ni kinyume kutokana na yafuatayo:
Habari za kiintelejensia zinasema Mrusi alideploy yapata askari wapatao 190,000-200,000 ambao bado idadi ilikuwa ni ndogo dhidi ya askari wa hasimu wake
  1. Sasa anapambana na waukraine ambao wako extremely motivated kuilinda nchi yao.
  2. Morale ya wanajeshi wengi wa Urusi iko chini na hawataki kuendelea kuwa pale,
  3. Wa Ukrain walipata misaada mingi ya anti tank weapons kutoka nchi za NATO ambayo imekuwa proved kuwa effective.
  4. Warusi hawana full control ya airspace hadi sasa.
  5. Wanajeshi wa Urusi hawana supply nzuri na ya kutosha ya vitu kama mafuta, chakula na vilipuzi (ammunitions)
  6. Intelejensia ya Ukrain iko vizuri kwa sababu ilipokea supply of intel kutoka FSB
  7. Mauaji ya high ranking generals upande wa Urusi yamedidimiza morale kwa wanajeshi wake.
  8. Halafu pia wanajeshi wengi wa Urusi wanajua kuwa dunia yote iko against nao kwa vitendo wanavyofanya.
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  9. Pamoja na jeshi kubwa la anga walilotumia inaonekana kuna kiwazo kikubwa kutoka kwa wingi wa wanajeshi wa ukrain ambao wana silaha za short range SAMs
  10. Pia inasemekana kuwa ile level ya inter-service intergration ya wanajeshi wa Urusi iko low kutokana na kwamba Mapilot wa ndege za Urusi wanafanya kushare battle space na wanajeshi walioko chini ikiwa na maana kwamba hakuna collabo na hii imepelekea kuwepo kwa blue on blue incidents imagine conscripts wanaangusha ndege zao wenyewe
  11. Russians pilots hawana sana ile confidence kuwa katika anga kuna usalama hasa kutokana na uwepo wa zile western stealth fighters hivyo wanachukuwa tahadhari sana na wanashindwa kutambua ndege mfano (mig-29) zinazoangushwa je ni stinger au MANPADS imetumika au ni kitu kingine kwa maana rada haijaonyesha.sasa unaweza kufikiria confidence waliyonayo, Hivyo basi kutokana na kutolimiliki anga ndege zao ziko vulnerable na kwa ufupi ni kwamba hawa western walikuwa so busy kugawa hizi handheld stingers systems ambazo zimekuwa effective kwa low level flying fighters na helcopters
  12. Pamoja na haya yote Mrusi hadi sasa ameweza kupiga zaidi ya hospitali 60 na technic anayotumia ni kupiga tokea kwao na ametambua waUkrain kwa sasa wanatumia uraiani kama ngome kitu ambacho Mrusi alikuwa anajitahidi kuavoid.na M-ukrain raia wachache wakiuwawa basi kwa propaganda atazidisha au atamultiply ili idadi ionekane kuubwa na dunia izidi kumuonea huruma.
  13. Kwa sasa magari mengi yamekwama kwa kukosa mafuta na mji wa Mariupol umebananishwa yaani kuelekea mji huu ndio kuna mapigano makubwa na kiasi upande wa kaskazini, Msukumo kuelekea Kharkiv wanajeshi wa Urusi wamerudishwa nyuma.
  14. Mfumo wa Encrypted communication haupo tena ambao ulitegemea 3g/4g na warusi waliuharibu baada ya kuanza uvamizi.
  15. Hali za off road kwa sasa ni mbaya kutokana na uwepo wa matope ya kutosha. na imepelekea mataili cheap kutoka china yashindwe kufanya kazi magari mengi yamekuwa stall
  16. Pia tambueni kuwa Mmarekani yuko pia vitani undergroundly kwa kusupply real time intelligence satellite data kwa M-ukraine
 
Jarida la Wall Street Journal, likiwanukuu maafisa wakuu wa Marekani ambao hawakutajwa majina, linasimulia kuhusu kubadilisha mbinu za uvamizi wa Urusi nchini Ukraine.

Hapo awali, Marekani na washirika wake waliona malengo ya awali ya Rais Putin kama kuchukua Kyiv ndani ya siku chache na kuchukua nafasi ya serikali ya Zelenskiy na utawala unaounga mkono Urusi.

Kwa zaidi ya wiki tatu za mapigano, hili halijatekelezwa - kulingana na WSJ, hii inadaiwa ilimfanya Putin kubadili mbinu.

Kulingana na tathmini mpya ya nia ya rais wa Urusi, anajaribu kulazimisha Kyiv kukubali madai ya Urusi kwa maeneo ya kusini na mashariki mwa Ukraine.

"Kwa kukamata Crimea na sehemu za Donbas mnamo 2014, Urusi inatafuta kutoa 'daraja la ardhini' kati ya Urusi ya magharibi na peninsula ya Crimea, na pia kupanua udhibiti wa Urusi juu ya Donbas," chanzo kilisema.

Iwapo matakwa haya ya ardhi na matakwa ya kutoegemea upande wowote kwa Ukraine yatakataliwa, Putin anatarajiwa kujaribu kushikilia ardhi yote ambayo wanajeshi wa Urusi wameikalia na kuendelea kupigana, maafisa wa Marekani ambao hawakutajwa majina wanasema. "Kulingana na tathmini zetu za kijeshi, inaonekana kama yeye [Putin] anarejea kwenye mbinu za kuzingirwa," anasema afisa wa utawala wa Marekani.

Wakati huo huo, Putin anaweza kupanua malengo yake ya kijeshi ikiwa hatua za jeshi la Urusi zitafanikiwa zaidi.

"Hali ya mji mkuu [wa Ukraine] inasalia kuwa swali la wazi, na kutokana na upinzani mkali wa Ukraine, haijulikani kama jeshi la Urusi linaweza kukusanya wanajeshi wa kutosha kuizingira Kyiv na kuichukua," chanzo cha gazeti hilo kilisema.

Katika ripoti yake , Wall Street Journal inabainisha kuwa t
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afsiri yao ya mkakati wa Vladimir Putin sio matokeo ya tathmini rasmi ya jumuiya ya kijasusi, lakini mtazamo wa baadhi ya maafisa wa Marekani wenye uwezo wa kuona taarifa za siri.​
 
The sarcastic reaction of the Religious Zionist Knesset member, Simcha Rothman, after Zelensky's speech to members of the Israeli parliament: “President Zelensky asked us to help Ukraine now, just like the Ukrainians helped the Jews during the Nazi occupation. I must say right away that we will have to resolutely reject his request - we are not monsters, we just want to bring good to all peoples.
Galip SV Liwagu
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NYUNDO YA MOTO said:
Jarida la Wall Street Journal, likiwanukuu maafisa wakuu wa Marekani ambao hawakutajwa majina, linasimulia kuhusu kubadilisha mbinu za uvamizi wa Urusi nchini Ukraine.

Hapo awali, Marekani na washirika wake waliona malengo ya awali ya Rais Putin kama kuchukua Kyiv ndani ya siku chache na kuchukua nafasi ya serikali ya Zelenskiy na utawala unaounga mkono Urusi.

Kwa zaidi ya wiki tatu za mapigano, hili halijatekelezwa - kulingana na WSJ, hii inadaiwa ilimfanya Putin kubadili mbinu.

Kulingana na tathmini mpya ya nia ya rais wa Urusi, anajaribu kulazimisha Kyiv kukubali madai ya Urusi kwa maeneo ya kusini na mashariki mwa Ukraine.

"Kwa kukamata Crimea na sehemu za Donbas mnamo 2014, Urusi inatafuta kutoa 'daraja la ardhini' kati ya Urusi ya magharibi na peninsula ya Crimea, na pia kupanua udhibiti wa Urusi juu ya Donbas," chanzo kilisema.

Iwapo matakwa haya ya ardhi na matakwa ya kutoegemea upande wowote kwa Ukraine yatakataliwa, Putin anatarajiwa kujaribu kushikilia ardhi yote ambayo wanajeshi wa Urusi wameikalia na kuendelea kupigana, maafisa wa Marekani ambao hawakutajwa majina wanasema. "Kulingana na tathmini zetu za kijeshi, inaonekana kama yeye [Putin] anarejea kwenye mbinu za kuzingirwa," anasema afisa wa utawala wa Marekani.

Wakati huo huo, Putin anaweza kupanua malengo yake ya kijeshi ikiwa hatua za jeshi la Urusi zitafanikiwa zaidi.

"Hali ya mji mkuu [wa Ukraine] inasalia kuwa swali la wazi, na kutokana na upinzani mkali wa Ukraine, haijulikani kama jeshi la Urusi linaweza kukusanya wanajeshi wa kutosha kuizingira Kyiv na kuichukua," chanzo cha gazeti hilo kilisema.

Katika ripoti yake , Wall Street Journal inabainisha kuwa tView attachment 2159086afsiri yao ya mkakati wa Vladimir Putin sio matokeo ya tathmini rasmi ya jumuiya ya kijasusi, lakini mtazamo wa baadhi ya maafisa wa Marekani wenye uwezo wa kuona taarifa za siri.​
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Hizi taarifa mnaziokota kwa wamarekani na uingereza 🤣 nani ataziamini!. Wewe mwenyewe hapo unaposti lakini huna imani nazo. Mahaba niuwe.
 
Meta asks to postpone consideration of the application of the Prosecutor General's Office to ban activities in Russia due to the preparation of positions, a TASS correspondent reports.

A representative of Meta stated in court that a Russian court has no right to consider a claim against her and that this can only be done by a court at the place of registration - in the United States
Galip SV Liwagu
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The removal of Russian athletes from competitions due to the events in Ukraine is a mistake, said former US Ambassador to the UN Andrew Yang.

“This is not good for Russia, it weakens Russia ... Let's stop and start all over again, and also try to achieve peace,” he said in a conversation with RIA Novosti.

Young added that what is happening in relations between Russia and the West now is unreasonable, since the countries are connected by many common interests.

Earlier, we recall, the IOC recommended that the federations not allow Russian athletes to compete because of the political situation.
Galip SV Liwagu
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NYUNDO YA MOTO said:
The Ministry of Defense showed Ukrainian military equipment captured in the Kiev region by Russian paratroopers.

The military of the National Battalions and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, retreating, abandoned tanks, armored personnel carriers, a lot of small arms, anti-tank weapons and ammunition in good condition. All this will be handed over to the servicemen of the People's Militia of the DPR and LPR
Galip SV Liwagu
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Hiyo ministry of defense myiambie iwe inawaonyesha na hizi 👇

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The Russian delegation demonstrates a much greater willingness to work quickly and meaningfully in negotiations with the Ukrainian side. The dynamics of Kyiv does not meet the requirements of the situation, said Dmitry Peskov.

“The degree of progress in the negotiations is probably not the same as we would like, and not the same as the dynamics of the development of the situation requires for the Ukrainian side. I repeat once again - the Russian side demonstrates a much greater willingness to work quickly and meaningfully than the negotiators from the Ukrainian side, ”he said.
Galip SV Liwagu
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