Uchaguzi Rais 2015: Utabiri Wa Mshindi Baina ya CCM na CHADEMA

[Pascal Mayalla]

Vigezo gani mnatumia kupanga mikoa? Hili ndio jambo la kwanza. Maana naona mnachangia tu bila kujua vigezo. Inawezekanaje Kigoma ikawa kijani na Kilimanjaro blue? Kigoma ilitoa Kura Kwa chadema kwenye Urais 45% Mara mbili ya national avarage. Arusha? Kilimanjaro? Dar ES Salaam?
Kigoma ina majimbo 8, majimbo 5 yapo upinzani na 3 CCM. Hawa NCCR wote isipokuwa mmoja Ni CDM rebels tu na watu wa Kigoma walichagua watu hao Kwa hasira na sio NCCR iliyochaguliwa na ndio maana CDM ilipata Kura nyingi za Urais na madiwani wengi sana mkoa Mzima.

Wekeni vigezo vya kisayansi na sio hisia tu. companero wewe mwanasayansi, saidia kuweka vigezo ili mjadala uwe na maana.

Kigoma has never been CCM toka mfumo wa vyama vingi uanze and it will never been CCM. Unawezaje kuweka Iringa blue na Kigoma au Kagera kijani?

Asante ZZK kuliweka vizuri hili, mimi sitachoka kuwasisitiza, ili 2015 muweze, first yoi have to put your house in order!, lazima mkubali ku play "political endurance", "political tolerance" na Chadema lazima , hapa nasisitiza "lazima muikubali "political divesity" ndani ya chama chenu kwa kuwavumilia wale msiokubaliana nao na sio kufukuzana kila kukicha!, lazima mtafute areas za ushirikiano na vyama vingine ili mpate umoja ni nguvu 2015 muichukue Ikulu!.
P.

 

[reandle]

Very Constructive Study!! Hata hivyo, ili tuweze kupata minimal erros result ni bora tukiangalia jambo moja la msingi ambalo watu tunashindwa kuliona kwa mapana yake. Jambo ninalopenda kuweka sawa ni kuhusu tafsiri ya neno "ngome ya CHADEMA" na "Ngome ya CCM." Haya yote yana maana sawa lakini uhalisia wake kwa hivi sasa ni tofauti kidogo.

Tunapozungumzia mkoa fulani ni Ngome ya CCM, UHALISIA wake kwamba mkoa huo ni ngome ya CCM kweli kweli kiasi kwamba kwenye mkoa husika CCM inatarajiwa kushinda kwa ushindi wa kishindo unaoweza kufikia hadi 70% na wakati mwingine hata 80%! Kwa kawaida, mikoa ya aina hiyo inakuwa haitoi nafasi yoyote kwa CHADEMA!

Kinyume chake, tunavyozungumzia mkoa fulani ni Ngome ya CHADEMA, UHALISIA wake ni kwamba hapo CHADEMA inapewa nafasi kubwa ya kushinda kuliko CCM ingawaje CCM haiwezi kupuuzwa moja kwa moja! Hivyo basi, inapotokea CHADEMA imeshinda kwenye mkoa husika bado ushindi wake hauwezi kuwa wa kishindo kama vile CCM inavyoshinda kwenye ngome zake. Aidha, hata kama CHADEMA inakuwa inapewa nafasi kubwa ya kushinda, bado CCM nao wanakuwa na nafasi ya kushinda hata kama haiwezi kuwa kubwa kama ile ya CHADEMA.

 

[Bongolander]

wazo zuri; sasa tunafanyeje, nianzishe mjadala mpya as a poll?

Mkuu Mchambuzi ukianzisha poll hapa haitakuwa vizuri kwa kuwa haiwezi kuwa scientific, kwa kuwa respondents wengi ni wa aina moja. Lakini ni vizuri tukiendelea kuchimba na kujua mwenendo wa upigaji kuwa wa watanzania.

Mara nyingi huwa tunajadili issue kitaaluma zaidi, lakini ukiangalia kiundani mpiga kura huwa na sababu simple sana za kupiga kura. Lakini ukiangalia kwa undani kidogo unaweza kuona yafuatayo

Hakuna mkoa ambao unaweza kuitwa wa sandakarawe
Hakluna mkoa ambao CCM, CDM au chama chochote kinaweza kuita ngome yake. Apart from Pemba CUF na mikoa 2 ZNZ CCM

Ukiangalia Islamists [including those who are imbeded in CCM, CDM, CUF et] wanafanya vizuri sana kwenye mikoa ya pwani kiasi na kagera.

CCM wanafanya vizuri kwenye mikoa yote, lakini kwenye maeneo ambayo watu hawana elimu na wako nyuma sana kimaendeleo. CCM ndio ina base kubwa zaidi ya wanachama kwa kuwa wanachama wake wanapatikana mikoa yote, miji yote na kanda zote, na hata kule ambako watu hadi leo wanajua CCM ni ile ya Nyerere.

CDM wanafanya vizuri zaidi mijini kwenye sehemu ambazo kuna civil servants, wasomi na access nzuri ya media, ambako si rahisi kuwadanganya wapiga kura kama maeneo ya vijijini.

Kuna baadhi ya sehemu ni kampeni tu zinawavuta watu.
Jaribu kuangalia map hii unaweza kujua najaribu kusema nini.

 

[Chajo]

Mkuu mchambuzi hongera sana kwa kutuandaa kufikiria kisayansi zaidi maana wengi tumezoea kusikia tu nani kasema nini then tunafuata upepo. Mimi naamini hii ni technical approach inayopaswa kutumiwa na kamati za ushindi za vyama vyote shindani. Hongeara sana!

 

[Kurunzi]

Vigezo gani mnatumia kupanga mikoa? Hili ndio jambo la kwanza. Maana naona mnachangia tu bila kujua vigezo. Inawezekanaje Kigoma ikawa kijani na Kilimanjaro blue? Kigoma ilitoa Kura Kwa chadema kwenye Urais 45% Mara mbili ya national avarage. Arusha? Kilimanjaro? Dar ES Salaam?
Kigoma ina majimbo 8, majimbo 5 yapo upinzani na 3 CCM. Hawa NCCR wote isipokuwa mmoja Ni CDM rebels tu na watu wa Kigoma walichagua watu hao Kwa hasira na sio NCCR iliyochaguliwa na ndio maana CDM ilipata Kura nyingi za Urais na madiwani wengi sana mkoa Mzima.

Wekeni vigezo vya kisayansi na sio hisia tu. companero wewe mwanasayansi, saidia kuweka vigezo ili mjadala uwe na maana.

Kigoma has never been CCM toka mfumo wa vyama vingi uanze and it will never been CCM. Unawezaje kuweka Iringa blue na Kigoma au Kagera kijani?

Hii ya kupaka rangi kwa hisia haitasaidia nivema yakawekwa matokeo hapa ya idadi ya waliipigia kura CDM tukaangalia ni % ngapi, tukianza mkoa mmoja baada ya mwingine hii itasaidia kujua mahali pa kuanzia uchambuzi wetu.

 

[WEMBE WENGE]

Kuna saa naona kama vichwa venu haviko sawa.Hivi kweli Chadema mnawaza Kushika nchi hii.Hizo ni ndoto za alinacha

Awadh2009, sijakuelewa una maanisha nini? kwani nchi hii mbona ni ya Watanzania? ama mmeshajipa hati milki ya nchi hii?
Tanzania ni ya watanzania? elewa kwamba CCM ni chama chenye wanachama kama wewe (labda) lakini Tanzania ni ya watanzania, kwa taarifa yako wanaosema sasa chama kipi kiongoze watanzania ni watanzania siyo CCM, hata kama kwa namna fulani kwako inakuwa vigumu kuamini lakini hali ndivyo ilivyo, na kwa kuwa jicho lako liko chongo, hutaki hata kuuona ukweli kwa ajili ya mapenzi uliyonayo, lakini time will tell.
Mchambuzi ana ufahamu wa kutosha kuhusu haya anayoyataka watu wachambue na kujadili, sidhani kama lugha za kejeli zako zina maana yoyote kwa forum hii.
Unaweza kuamini kwamba ukiwa na pesa nyingi unaweza kununua kila kitu lakini si utu wa mtu, wala mapenzi ya watu. tunaona wanagamba mnavyoshindana kwa Takrima na rushwa kuingia kwenye uongozi. kwa hiyo hayo yanakuongoza uamini kwamba kwa mtindo huo CHADEMA hawataweza kushinda kwa kuwa CCM mtawanunua wapiga kura.
CDM ndicho chama mbadala mwaka 2015 kwa bahati mbaya hata nafasi ya kurig matokeo haitakuwepo.

 

[UPIU]

Mkuu kinachonitatiza ni jinsi ulivyo classfy iyo mikoa into blue au green. Kwa mfano Dar kuiclassfy blue ni makosa. Labda tutizame recent polls iliyofanyika Dar nani alishinda? labda kwa kurahishishia ulikuwa ni uchaguzi wa udiwani kigamboni. Kitu kingine ambacho kitaleta big impacts kwa voters in Dar ni ujenzi wa miundombinu. Hivyo kwa kutizama chama kinachotawala magazeti utasema CDM kina nafasi nzuri ya kushinda lakini kistrategia za ushindi bado sana. CDM isipoangalia mwaka 2015 itabidi icopy na kupaste sababu zilizoifanya ishindwe udiwani mwaka huu. Tukumbuke mpira siyo chenga, bali ni magori.

 

[Mchambuzi]

Bongolander,

Ni kweli suala la poll limekaa complicated kidogo, halitatupa kitu tunachotafuta, ndio maana mimi naona ni vizuri sana tukianza na raw data ambazo ndio nimeziweka, then kama alivyoshauri jmushi1, niweke matokeo ya 2010 kwa kila mkoa n akila chama, ingawa katika hili kuna baadhi ya watu wanajenga hoja kwamba takwimu za 2010 sio legit kwa sababu ya uchakachuaji uliotokea (allegedly); Hiyo ramani yako imekaa vizuri, source yake nini? nadhani itasaidia sana kuweka things into perspective katika mjadala wetu; naweka takwimu fulani sawa halafu nitarudi;

 

[Mchambuzi]

Mkuu Pasco,

Nimekusoma na kimsingi nakubaliana na hoja zako nyingi; kuhusu umaskini and ignorance, kuna takwimu naziandaa kutoka kila mkoa to profile poverty levels na mahitaji yao ya msingi halafu nitazipandisha ili tuziunganishe na huu mjadala;

 

[Mimibaba]

Naingia kichwa kichwa

Vigezo

1. Mahali chama kina strong showing nawapa 70%, kinachofuata 30%, Wengine 10%

2. Mahali chama kina ushindani mkubwa nawapa 50%; 30% 20%

3. Mahali vyama vina ushindani karibu sawa na kuna wa kutopiga kura nawapa 40%, 30%, 30%

4. Mahali kuna ushindani sawa kwa vyama viwili 40%, 40%, 20%

Kwa vigezo hivyo naweka utabiri wangu kama hapo chini unaweza weka wa kwako kwa vigezo na viwango vyako.

2015 ikiwa ni sahihi ki hivi nigongeeni Like kwa sababu kitufe cha Like kwenye post zangu kimeondolewa
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[Mchambuzi]

EMT, jmushi1,

nilijaribu kuanzisha mjadala based on matokeo ya uchaguzi 2010, lakini wengi walikataa takwimu zile kwa madai kwamba sio legit kwa sababu zilichakachuliwa; kutokana na hoja hizo, nikaona nije na angle nyingine ya kuanza na raw data ili sote tuzijenge na kuua hoja takwimu kuchakachuliwa; lakini kwa vile maoni ya wengi yanazidi kuhimiza umuhimu wa takwimu za 2010, basi nipo njiani kuzipandisha humu; vinginevyo nilianza zoezi hilo taratibu kwenye uzi ufuatao ambao kama nilivyosema, wengi walijenga hoja kwamba ni takwimu zilizochakachuliwa; mjadala wangu ulikuwa kwenye uzi ufuatao:
https://www.jamiiforums.com/jukwaa-la-siasa/321496-chadema-na-mwenendo-wa-wapiga-kura-tanzania.html

 

[Kagosaki]

Mkuu, umetukosea sisi watu wa Lindi na Mtwara! Sisi wote ni CUF! CCM wana survive kiujanja janja tu

 

[juju man]

wapiga kura wapya wako kundi gani

 

[Confederate Spy]

Natarajia kuona Great thinkers wa JF akina Mwanakijiji,Ben Saanane,Mkandara,EMT,Nguruvi,Ngongo,Zakumi,Joka kuu,waberoya,Kiranga,Kichuguu,Game theory n.k wakichangia huu uzi

 

[Mchambuzi]

Mchambuzi'Singida na Rukwa hujawatendea haki'bora ungeweka nyekundu

Singida traditionally ni CCM, kama ilivyokuwa Tanga; Majimbo ya Tanga na Singida, hata CCM ikiweka KIKAPU CHA NYANYA kama mgombea, atapita; Ila kwa singida Lissu anaweza geuza picha iliyopo sasa; Kuhusu Rukwa nadhani kweli ni RED; nitafanya marekebisho hayo baadae kidogo kutokana na mawazo ya wengine humu;

 

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kwa sasa mikoa mingine imeanzishwa mipya. hukuijumuisha. hata hivyo na hiyo kama dsm kusema ni ngomehakika ya CDM, kwa takwimu za mwaka gani? ukiangalia kati ya chadema ina jimbo la kawe & ubungo (2) . CCM inamajimbo (6) ya kinondoni, ilala,ukonga,segerea,kigamboni,temeke nk. hivyo kusema dsm ni ngome ya uhakika Chadema, kwa kutumia tafiti zipi ?
the same to maeneo mengine ya mikoa mingine. uchambuzi huu hauko realistic.

Kama umenisoma vizuri kwenye bandiko namba moja, nimeweka hizo rangi ili ku-stimulate mjadala ambao utapelekea consensus kwamba hatimaye wapi ni RED, BLUE, na GREEN; kwa mtazamo wako DSM ni GREEN? Tunajaribu kusaidiana hapa juu ya rangi hizo ili tukianza uchmabuzi, tuwe kwenye ukurasa mmoja; vinginevyo kusema uchambuzi haupo realistic upo sahihi kama ilikuwa nimefanya uchambuzi; vinginevyo nilichofanya ni kuwasilisha takwimu ili kwa pamoja tusaidiane kufikia lengo tajwa;

 

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BADO HATA MAONI YAKO SIO REALISTIC, KWAN UKUMBUKI CCM ALVOCHAKACHUA MATOKEO? ANGALIA SEGEREA, KIGAMBONI, MAJIMBO YOTE AYA YANGEENDA CHADEMA, RIL KWA SASA CDM INA POWER SANA DAR, ILA NIMEKEREKA KWA KUINOTE KAGERA KM NGOME YA CCM NATMAI HAMETUDHALILISHA WAHAYA, TNACHUKIA SANA RUSHWA ZA CCM, KWA UFUPI KNA MAJIMBO KM NKENGE HATKUPIGA KWAKUWA CDM AIKUSMAMISHA MTU, PIA TATIZO MLETA MADA ANATMIA DATA ZA 2010, SHUKA ARDHINI TAFITI KWA SASA MAMBO NI TOFAUTI KABISA, TNATAKA MABADILIKO SANA, NA MBIO ZA URAIS ZTAKUWA TAMU KM MAGAMBA WATABUGI NA KUMSIMAMISHA FISADI EL AMBAE NI WAZI KAWAZID WASHINDAN WAKE KT CHAGUZ ZAO ZA MAJUZ, NATMAI MUNGU ATAKUWA ANAIELEKEZA TANZANIA KT MABADILIKo FR CCM TO CDM

Samahani kwa kuweka Kagera GREEN mkuu; ilikuwa ni njia ya kuchokoza tu mada ili kwa pamoja tuje kubaliana wapi ni rtangi gani, kabla ya kuingia kwenye hatua zinazofuata; Kwahiyo Kagera ni BLUE? Unaweza kujengea hoja hilo kidogo ukiachilia suala la rushwa? Almost 90% ya majimbo ya Kagera ni ya CCM, au nimekosea?

 

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Vigezo gani mnatumia kupanga mikoa? Hili ndio jambo la kwanza. Maana naona mnachangia tu bila kujua vigezo. Inawezekanaje Kigoma ikawa kijani na Kilimanjaro blue? Kigoma ilitoa Kura Kwa chadema kwenye Urais 45% Mara mbili ya national avarage. Arusha? Kilimanjaro? Dar ES Salaam?
Kigoma ina majimbo 8, majimbo 5 yapo upinzani na 3 CCM. Hawa NCCR wote isipokuwa mmoja Ni CDM rebels tu na watu wa Kigoma walichagua watu hao Kwa hasira na sio NCCR iliyochaguliwa na ndio maana CDM ilipata Kura nyingi za Urais na madiwani wengi sana mkoa Mzima.

Wekeni vigezo vya kisayansi na sio hisia tu. companero wewe mwanasayansi, saidia kuweka vigezo ili mjadala uwe na maana.

Kigoma has never been CCM toka mfumo wa vyama vingi uanze and it will never been CCM. Unawezaje kuweka Iringa blue na Kigoma au Kagera kijani?

Nashukuru kwa mchango wako; unajua tatizo hapa ni kwamba wachangiaji wengi hawataki kutumia matokeo ya 2010 kufanya utabiri au uchambuzi wa aina yoyote kuelekea 2015 kwa madai kwamba matokeo ya 2010 yalichakachuliwa; Nilikuja na mjadala uliotumia takwimu za 2010 lakini ulipingwa vikali; Ndio maana nikaona nije na raw data i.e. takwimu za wapiga kura kwa kila mkoa, huku nikichokoza kidogo mjadala kwa kuweka Green hapa, Blue pale na Red kule; niliamini kwa kufanya hivi, kwanza hoja kuhusu matokeo ya 2010 kuchakachuliwa itapoteza mashiko, lakini muhimu zaidi, tutakuwa tunajadili ngome za vyama based on an approach yenye consensus;

Kwa vile wengi wameomba niweke takwimu za 2010 kama sehemu ya mjadala huu, nipo mbioni kuzipandisha takwimu hizo pamoja na poverty profile na mahitaji ya wananchi kutoka kila mkoa based on poverty assessment iliyokuwa particpatory...; Vinginevyo ikumbukwe tu kwamba wiki kadhaa zilizopita nilianzisha mjadala based on takwimu za 2010, lakini kama nilivyosema, wengi hawakupenda hilo; mjadala huo ulikuwa ufuatao: https://www.jamiiforums.com/jukwaa-la-siasa/321496-chadema-na-mwenendo-wa-wapiga-kura-tanzania.html

 

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Mkuu embu rekebisha idadi ya wapigakura Zanzibar.

Ni kweli, takwimu zina utata lakini ndio zilivyo kwa mujibu wa NEC; lakini nina uhakika tutazipata za uhakika zaidi as we proceed;

 

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Ahsante sana Mkuu, that's a very critical projection. Mimi naamini Mikoa ya Mara, Kagera, Kigoma, Mtwara, Pwani na Zanzibar ni Sandakarawe. Kagera ni kati kwa kati CHADEMA na CCM,, Kigoma ni kati ya CHADEMA,CCM na NCCR,,,Mtwara na Zanzibar huwaambii kitu kuhusiana na CUF,,,,najua hapa target ni CHADEMA na CCM lakini kama ni Sandakarawe basi iwe ivyo.

Naendelea kuamini kuwa 2015 mambo mengi yatabadilika na hasa idadi ya wapiga kura itaongezeka sana kwani tutakuwa na vijana wengi wengi, mabadiliko haya yataathiri hata Ngome za uhakika za vyama hivi na hasa CCM

Iwapo idadi ya mikoa sadakalawe itaongezeka, hii itafanya mjadala uwe very interesting once tukiweka vizuri takwimu zote; nipo njiani kupandisha takwimu muhimu ili tusonge mbele;