Uchaguzi Rais 2015: Utabiri Wa Mshindi Baina ya CCM na CHADEMA

Uchaguzi Rais 2015: Utabiri Wa Mshindi Baina ya CCM na CHADEMA

Bongolander said:
Mkuu MC nakubaliana sana na wewe, kama uchaguzi utakuwa huru na wa haki kikweli, uwezekano wa CCM kushinda ni mdogo sana. Unless wafanye kampeni kubwa kupindukia, kitu ambacho kimsingi hakiwezekani. Hayo unayosema, kwa maoni yangu, sioni kama kweli CCM itakubali kuyabadilisha. Hata kama ni mimi nigekuwa madarakani nimeshika polisi, jeshi, mahakama, tume ya Uchaguzi, above all usalama wa taifa, nisingekubali kuachia.

Ukumbuke pia kuwa bado CCM wanadhibiti idara zinazoamua na zinazotangaza mshindi. Kwa maana hiyo hata kama opposition wakishinda (kwa mazingira kama ya sasa) hali itakuwa kama 2010. Kwa hiyo kilichopo ni kuwa CUF na CDM ambao ndio victims wakubwa wa uchakachuaji wachukue hatua haraka sana katika miezi hii 36. Kwenye uchaguzi wa 2010 wananchi walionesha kuitikia sana kutaka mabadiliko, wapiga kura played their part kuhakikisha kuwa hawaibiwi tena.

Kama 2015 Chadema na CUF hawatafanya juhudi za kuleta foreign observer wengi na kuwaweka katika kila kituo cha kupigia kura, mchezo utakuwa ni ule ule wa kuchakachua kwenye kuhesabu kura na kutangaza mshindi. Kama kukiwa na foreign obsever katika kila kituo, na foreign observer kila mkoa hadi ngazi ya taifa, uchaguzi unaweza kuwa fair. Hii ndio naona option pekee kama mazingira yakiwa kama ya 2010.

Tukiendelea kuleta observers na wanakwenda Dar, Arusha, Dodoma na Zanzibar na kupiga picha mbili tatu, tutakuwa tunaendelea kujidanganya, ni kama tutakuwa tunaita wageni kuja kuhalalisha stolen elections. Kwa hiyo mkuu MC naona muhimu hapa ni kuangalia uwanja wenyewe wa 2015.
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Mkuu ni kweli unayoyasema kuwa ni vigumu sana chama tawala kutengeneza mazingira ya kushindwa,yaani kuweka tume huru, kuwaondoa watendaji wake katika usimamizi wa uchaguzi nk, lakini pia foreign observers sio jibu la wao kutoiba kura na kuvuruga uchaguzi hivyo kuhimiza uwepo wao katika kila kituo bado sio option kamilifu. Kama mazingira ya kuvuruga uchaguzi yakiwepo, silaha pekee na ya uhakika ambayo CDM wanaweza kuitumia ni nguvu ya watu- kuwahimiza wapiga kura wapige na kulinda kura zao huku wakiwa na wawakilishi wasioweza kununuliwa. Uchaguzi wa mwaka 2010 imeshafanya kazi katika majimbo kama Arusha mjini, Mwanza (Nyamagana zaidi), Mbeya mjini na hata katika uchaguzi mdogo wa Arumeru mashariki.
 
Nini cha ajabu kwa CDM kushika nchi hii? Wewe bado una mawazo mgando.Kama Kenya,Zambia na kwingineko mabadiliko yamefanyika kuna nini cha ajabu kutofanyika Tanzania? Kama ulidhani CCM ina haki miliki ya kututawala unajidanganya na kama wewe ni fisadi tafuta pa kukimbilia sasa hizi maana siku za CCM kukaa madarakani zinahesabika.
Awadhi2009 said:
Kuna saa naona kama vichwa venu haviko sawa.Hivi kweli Chadema mnawaza Kushika nchi hii.Hizo ni ndoto za alinacha
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Mchambuzi kumbuka kuwa majority ya vijana wako CHADEMA hasa waliomaliza shule na vyuo, vilevile kuna wale ambao hawakujiandikisha ambao ukichanganya na wale waliomaliza masomo utakuta ni namba kubwa sana. Elimu ya umuhimu wa kupiga kura ndio SASA.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
mkuu Mchambuzi.
asante kwa hizi statistics. good stuff for thought.

binafsi sina sababu au reference yoyote ya kuzipinga,so nimezifanyia analysis ndogo kama ulivyoziwasilisha.

for the sake of this argument therefor:
1/assume that votes zote 18M ni kati ya vyama hivi viwili tu
2/assume kwamba kwenye ngome yake chama husika kina votes 75% na kingine 25%
2/assume that kwenye sadakalawe kila chama kina 50% ya votes

CCM watapata 9,319,624 (52%) huku CHADEMA wakipata 8,695,043 (48%).

this means that uchaguzi wa 2015 utaamuliwa kwa very small margins which will be largely tactical-based.

 
Mchambuzi said:
Lifuatalo ni zoezi la utabiri juu ya mshindi Urais uchaguzi Mkuu 2015 baina ya CCM na Chadema; Lakini kabla hatujaenda kwenye hatua nyingine yoyote, ningependa kuwasilisha takwimu za idadi ya wapiga kura kwa kila mkoa Tanzania kwa mujibu wa Tume ya Uchaguzi (NEC); Ni dhahiri takwimu hizi zitaendelea kubadilika jinsi tunavyo karibia mwaka 2015, lakini halitakuwa tatizo kwani tutaendelea kufanya marekebisho accordingly;




  • BLUE maana yake ni Ngome za uhakika za Chadema;
  • KIJANI maana yake Ngome za uhakika za CCM;
  • NYEKUNDU maana yake ni Mikoa ambayo hivi sasa ni 'Toss Up' au Sadakalawe;

Kabla ya kusonga mbele kwenda kwenye hatua nyingine za zoezi hili, ningependa kufahamu:


  • Je, wengi wetu mnashauri au mna mtazamo tofauti na picha niliyowalilisha hapo juu kuhusu mikoa gani ni ngome ya nani na mikoa gani ni sandakalawe? Kumbukeni, hili ni zoezi la utabiri tu; Lengo langu katika hatua hii ya awali ni kujaribu tukifikie muafaka juu wapi ni BLUE, GREEN na RED, (KWA HOJA), halafu tutaingia kwenye hatua zinazofuata; Ni imani yangu kwamba mjadala huu utatusaidia kuwa na mjadala ambao utakuwa more organized, interesting, and consistent, kuelekea 2015; Natumaini hoja kwamba hiki au kile ni siri ya ndani ya chama na kwahiyo haziwezi jadiliwa hadharani, hazitakuwa na nafasi katika mjadala huu;

Tukishirikiana, hakika tutajifunza mengi;
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MIMI NAOMBA TU KUJUA.MATOKEO YA KURA HIZI NDIO MTA CONLUDE KUWA CCM/cdm Itashinda uchaguzi 2015??
Maana JF ina Member takribani 97,3000 hawa ni wachache , na hakuna kumbukumbu za uwiano wa mtawanyiko wao na uwakilishi wao wa Tanzania nzima. na wengi wao wanauwezo wa kuwa na access ya Internet na ni wasomi na asilimia kubwa wanapatikana mjini tuu na ndio wengi wao hawaipendi ccm, Ingawa ukweli ni wapiga kura wengi ambao wako vijijini ambao ndio wengi ni tegemeo kubwa la ccm kwenye kura na hawana elimu kubwa ,umeme na access ya internet na wengi sio member wa JF.Msisahau pia viongozi wote waandamizi wa serikalini na familia zao lazima waipe kura ccm kulinda maslahi yao.Niondeleeni mashaka ya hizi findings kuwa reliable information to predict the victory of any party in the furthcoming election (2015!!!
 
Kingmairo said:
Mkuu, heshima mbele na Mchambuzi kwa mada hii. Kumekuwa na hoja kuwa matokeo yaliyotangazwa na Tume ya Uchaguzi hayatafaa kwa uchambuzi maana yalikuwa na uchakachuzi. File nililoattach lina matokeo ambayo yanasadikiwa kuwa sahihi kama ambavyo lilivyokuwa likisambazwa muda kidogo baada ya uchaguzi ikiwa ni sehemu ya tathmini ya matokeo ya uchaguzi ule. Siwezi kusema kwa uhakika kuwa ndo matokeo ambayo hayajachakachuliwa maana sijacompile mie, lakini kwa madai ya wengi haya ndo yalikuwa matokeo sahihi. Kwa dhumuni la utabiri huu, matokeo haya yanaweza kutupa mwanga zaidi katika kujua ngome za wagombea watarajiwa.
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Ndugu yangu hizi takwimu ni kupikwa hazifai kwa lo lote, kwa chote wala kwa ye yote

1. Asilimia ya Column B kulingana na Column A nin 65 kwa mikoa yote. Kitu kama hiki si kweli kwa maisha ya kawaida.

2. Wote tunajua waliopiga kura walikuwa kwenye wastani wa asili mia 42 na si asili mia 65

3. Pamoja na kutotajwa chanzo inaonekana lengo la takwimu hizi si upiga kura bali upika kura mchezo ambao wachezaji wanajulikana.

4. Matokeo halisi yapo lakini si vyema yajadiliwe tena. Wathrika wameshachukua hatua baada ya kutafakari

Tuendelee na majadiliano kwa Takwimu za Mchambuzi
[TABLE="width: 758"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl84, width: 1009, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 12, align: center"]TATHMINI YA UCHAGUZI MKUU MWAKA HUU WA 2010[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]REGIONAL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]A. # OF VOTERS [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 91, bgcolor: transparent"]B. VOTERS TO VOTE [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]C. KIKWETE [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]D LIPUMBA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]E. SLAA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]F. RUNGWE[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]G. PETER[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]H. MUGAHYWA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"] I. TOTAL [/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, width: 78, bgcolor: transparent"] J. % Total voters to # of reg voters[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 113, bgcolor: transparent"]WINNER BY REGIONAL[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: yellow"]ARUSHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 831,827.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] 540,687.55 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 179,240.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 10,814.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 349,011.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 220.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 500.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 902.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 540,687.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] SLAA [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: yellow"]DAR ES SALAAM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 1,786,290.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] 1,161,088.50 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 464,435.40 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 104,497.97 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 580,544.25 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 3,000.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 5,500.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 3,110.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 1,161,087.62 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] SLAA [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]DODOMA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 1,032,372.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] 671,041.80 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 416,045.92 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 26,841.67 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 221,443.79 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 2,000.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 2,000.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 2,710.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 671,041.38 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] KIKWETE [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: yellow"]IRINGA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 921,054.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] 598,685.10 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 239,474.04 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 11,973.70 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 341,250.51 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 1,986.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 2,100.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 1,900.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 598,684.25 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] SLAA [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #FFFF99"]KAGERA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 1,155,770.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 751,250.50 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 308,012.71 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 7,512.51 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 428,212.79 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 2,000.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 2,512.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 3,000.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 751,250.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] SLAA [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]KIGOMA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 768,797.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] 499,718.05 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 264,850.57 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 134,923.87 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 94,946.43 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 1,997.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 1,560.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 1,440.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 499,717.87 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] KIKWETE [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #FFFF99"]KILIMANJARO[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 912,542.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 593,152.30 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 166,082.64 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 5,931.52 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 415,206.61 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 1,930.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 2,000.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 2,001.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 593,151.78 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #FFFF99"] SLAA [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]LINDI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 508,193.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] 330,325.45 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 188,285.51 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 109,007.40 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 32,032.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 200.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 300.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 500.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 330,324.91 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] KIKWETE [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: yellow"]MANYARA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 634,065.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] 412,142.25 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 98,914.14 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 4,121.42 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 304,985.27 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 2,000.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 121.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 2,000.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 412,141.83 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] SLAA [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: yellow"]MARA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 813,330.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] 528,664.50 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 200,892.51 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 10,573.29 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 315,198.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 1,405.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 500.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 95.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 528,663.80 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] SLAA [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: yellow"]MBEYA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 1,275,389.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] 829,002.85 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 265,280.91 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 24,870.09 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 530,561.82 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 8,000.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 200.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 90.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 829,002.82 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] SLAA [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]MOROGORO[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 1,122,583.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] 729,678.95 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 496,181.69 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 145,935.79 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 80,264.68 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 500.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 600.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 6,196.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 729,678.16 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] KIKWETE [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]MTWARA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 731,444.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] 475,438.60 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 247,228.07 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 180,666.67 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 38,035.09 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 8,500.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 750.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 258.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 475,437.83 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] KIKWETE [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: yellow"]MWANZA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 1,659,641.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] 1,078,766.65 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 409,931.33 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 21,575.33 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 636,472.32 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 2,000.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 787.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 8,000.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: yellow"] 1,078,765.98 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: yellow"] SLAA [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]PWANI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 562,373.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] 365,542.45 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 201,048.35 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 109,662.74 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 51,175.94 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 655.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 1,500.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 1,500.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 365,542.03 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] KIKWETE [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]RUKWA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 668,817.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] 434,731.05 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 239,102.08 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 18,790.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 174,500.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 350.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 1,542.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 446.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 434,730.08 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: transparent"] 65.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] KIKWETE [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]RUVUMA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 710,579.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"] 461,876.35 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 318,694.68 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 25,454.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 116,727.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 245.00 [/TD]
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[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 461,875.68 [/TD]
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[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 1,000,091.00 [/TD]
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[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 162,514.79 [/TD]
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[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 50.00 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 650,058.63 [/TD]
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[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 1,031,239.00 [/TD]
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[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 201,091.61 [/TD]
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[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"] 1,200.00 [/TD]
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[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"] [/TD]
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[TD="class: xl80, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]10.19[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]44.45[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl80, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0.29[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"] [/TD]
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Mchambuzi,
Kabla sijachangia naomba kufahamu kama hiyo idadi ya wapigakura wa Zanzibar ni sahihi au kuna mahali umekosea.
 
Mchambuzi said:
Lifuatalo ni zoezi la utabiri juu ya mshindi Urais uchaguzi Mkuu 2015 baina ya CCM na Chadema; Lakini kabla hatujaenda kwenye hatua nyingine yoyote, ningependa kuwasilisha takwimu za idadi ya wapiga kura kwa kila mkoa Tanzania kwa mujibu wa Tume ya Uchaguzi (NEC); Ni dhahiri takwimu hizi zitaendelea kubadilika jinsi tunavyo karibia mwaka 2015, lakini halitakuwa tatizo kwani tutaendelea kufanya marekebisho accordingly;




  • BLUE maana yake ni Ngome za uhakika za Chadema;
  • KIJANI maana yake Ngome za uhakika za CCM;
  • NYEKUNDU maana yake ni Mikoa ambayo hivi sasa ni 'Toss Up' au Sadakalawe;

Kabla ya kusonga mbele kwenda kwenye hatua nyingine za zoezi hili, ningependa kufahamu:


  • Je, wengi wetu mnashauri au mna mtazamo tofauti na picha niliyowalilisha hapo juu kuhusu mikoa gani ni ngome ya nani na mikoa gani ni sandakalawe? Kumbukeni, hili ni zoezi la utabiri tu; Lengo langu katika hatua hii ya awali ni kujaribu tukifikie muafaka juu wapi ni BLUE, GREEN na RED, (KWA HOJA), halafu tutaingia kwenye hatua zinazofuata; Ni imani yangu kwamba mjadala huu utatusaidia kuwa na mjadala ambao utakuwa more organized, interesting, and consistent, kuelekea 2015; Natumaini hoja kwamba hiki au kile ni siri ya ndani ya chama na kwahiyo haziwezi jadiliwa hadharani, hazitakuwa na nafasi katika mjadala huu;

Tukishirikiana, hakika tutajifunza mengi;
Click to expand...

MIMI NAOMBA TU KUJUA.MATOKEO YA KURA HIZI NDIO MTA CONLUDE KUWA CCM/cdm Itashinda uchaguzi 2015??
Maana JF ina Member takribani 97,3000 hawa ni wachache , na hakuna kumbukumbu za uwiano wa mtawanyiko wao na uwakilishi wao wa Tanzania nzima. na wengi wao wanauwezo wa kuwa na access ya Internet na ni wasomi na asilimia kubwa wanapatikana mjini tuu na ndio wengi wao hawaipendi ccm, Ingawa ukweli ni wapiga kura wengi ambao wako vijijini ambao ndio wengi ni tegemeo kubwa la ccm kwenye kura na hawana elimu kubwa ,umeme na access ya internet na wengi sio member wa JF.Msisahau pia viongozi wote waandamizi wa serikalini na familia zao lazima waipe kura ccm kulinda maslahi yao.Niondeleeni mashaka ya hizi findings kuwa reliable information to predict the victory of any party in the forthcoming election?????!!!!! (in 2015)!!!
 
Mwanamutapa said:
Mwanza, Shinyanga na Kigoma ni blue hiyo mikoa CCM haina nafasi usiweke sandakarawe kuiplease CCM nikiwa kama mwenyeji wa hiyo mikoa hiyo Mwanza na Shinyanga CCM hawatakiwi bali wanasurvive kwa kutumia mabavu na Kigoma watavote CHADEMA kama si NCCR-Mageuzi
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Ni kweli kabisa Mkuu, hata mimi sielewi mleta mada kwa nini hiyo mikoa hasa mwanza na shinyanga isiwe ngome ya CHADEMA. Labda sijui ametumia vigezo gani anaweza kutufafanulia.
 
Mwanza ni ngome ya chadema...wasukuma hawana utani...hata shinyanga yaweza.
 
Mchambuzi said:
Nashukuru kwa mchango wako; unajua tatizo hapa ni kwamba wachangiaji wengi hawataki kutumia matokeo ya 2010 kufanya utabiri au uchambuzi wa aina yoyote kuelekea 2015 kwa madai kwamba matokeo ya 2010 yalichakachuliwa; Nilikuja na mjadala uliotumia takwimu za 2010 lakini ulipingwa vikali; Ndio maana nikaona nije na raw data i.e. takwimu za wapiga kura kwa kila mkoa, huku nikichokoza kidogo mjadala kwa kuweka Green hapa, Blue pale na Red kule; niliamini kwa kufanya hivi, kwanza hoja kuhusu matokeo ya 2010 kuchakachuliwa itapoteza mashiko, lakini muhimu zaidi, tutakuwa tunajadili ngome za vyama based on an approach yenye consensus;

Kwa vile wengi wameomba niweke takwimu za 2010 kama sehemu ya mjadala huu, nipo mbioni kuzipandisha takwimu hizo pamoja na poverty profile na mahitaji ya wananchi kutoka kila mkoa based on poverty assessment iliyokuwa particpatory...; Vinginevyo ikumbukwe tu kwamba wiki kadhaa zilizopita nilianzisha mjadala based on takwimu za 2010, lakini kama nilivyosema, wengi hawakupenda hilo; mjadala huo ulikuwa ufuatao: https://www.jamiiforums.com/jukwaa-la-siasa/321496-chadema-na-mwenendo-wa-wapiga-kura-tanzania.html
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Mjadala wako ni mzuri na the way unauendesha nimeipenda.

Hata hivyo, ukipandisha hizo takwimu za TUME YA UCHAGUZI YA 2010 ujue utakuwa umeharibu moja kwa moja mjadala huu kwani wengi wanaamini zile takwimu zilichakachuliwa na hivyo matokeo ya mjadala huu yatakuwa siyo real

NASHAURI TUTUTUMIE VIGEZO VINGINE VYOVYOTE VINAVYOFAA LAKINI SIYO TAKWIMU ZA 2010 ZA TUME YA UCHAGUZI

So please, don't upload them!
 
Mchambuzi kwa kweli umeleta hoja makini maana hata USA wana ramani zenye maeneo ya Democrats,Republic na maeneo tatanishi-swinging states na naona wewe una uwezo wa kujenga framework ya kutabiri mshindi kwa kutumia trend.Lililo makini ni kupata takwimu pia za 1995,2000,na 2005 ili kupata picha ya mwelekeo na sababu za mwelekeo wowote na hapo tutaongia kwenye polls kutabiri mshindi.Pia tunafikiri ni vizuri tukaainisha tunaposema hii ni BLUE au GREEN region tunaaminishwa na nini.Kwa mfano sijui kwa nini unafikiri Kagera ni ngome ya CCM.Kweli wana Kagera wanaipendaama kuna invisible hand? Je CDM ilipata kura ngapi za Urais 2005 na 2010?Kuna kura za Tume ya Uchaguzi na halisia na huwa tofauti,kama yalivyotokea Kenya 2007!UNAKUMBUKA hata 1995 CCM walianza kupinga matokeo ya ZNZ hadi yalipochakachuliwa wakayakubali?kazi nzuri anyway!
 
Gagnija said:
Mchambuzi,
Kabla sijachangia naomba kufahamu kama hiyo idadi ya wapigakura wa Zanzibar ni sahihi au kuna mahali umekosea.
Click to expand...

Hiyo ndio idadi ya wapiga kura wa zanzibar kwa mujibu wa NEC; inashangaza kidogo;
 
Soki said:
Mjadala wako ni mzuri na the way unauendesha nimeipenda.

Hata hivyo, ukipandisha hizo takwimu za TUME YA UCHAGUZU YA 2010 ujue utakuwa umeharibu moja kwa moja mjadala huu kwani wengi wanaamini zile takwimu zilichakachuliwa na hivyo matokeo ya mjadala huu yatakuwa siyo real

NASHAURI TUTUTUMIE VIGEZO VINGINE VYOVYOTE VINAVYOFAA LAKINI SIYO TAKWIMU ZA 2010 ZA TUME YA UCHAGUZI

So please, don't upload them!
Click to expand...

Nimekuwa nafanyia kazi takwimu hizo, lakini naona hili litakuwa ni tatizo, kwahiyo naachana na zoezi hilo kwani wengi wametoa hoja kama zako; tuendelee kidogo kujadiliana kuhusu wapi ni ngome ya nani lakini muhimu zaidi - matumizi ya neno 'ngome' iwe wazi kama wanavyoshauri wengi; kwa wale waliopendekeza umuhimu wa takwimu za 2010 nadhani watakubaliana na mawazo ya wengi humu kwamba itaharibu mjadala wote, na ndio maana nilijaribu sana kukwepa hilo, na badala yake kushauri tusaidiane kwa kutumia raw data (idadi ya wapiga kura 2010) to build a case on wapi ni ngome ya nani na kwanini, huku tukihakikisha tunafikia consensus on kigezo cha kuita mkoa fulani kuwa ni ngome ya chama fulani; Namalizia kusoma mawazo ya wengine, huku pia nikiandaa takwimu fulani (sio matokeo ya uchaguzi 2010), ili tuingie kwenye hatua nyingine ya mjadala;

cc; jmushi1
 
Pasco said:
Kwa kulitambua hilo, CCM imekuja na kitu inaitwa "safety net" ambapo serikali imetenga Sh. Bilioni 400 kuzigawa kama ruzuku kwa familia masikini!. Hivyo 2015 CCM sasa itashinda tena this time sio kwa kura za ignorance!, bali kwa kura za "appreciation" kama shukrani kwao kwa kugaiwa pesa hard cash for doing nothing!.

Hivyo 2015 mshindi ni CCM tena!. Be it ni yule "pace maker" mgombea wangu or "joka la mdimu", the bottom line mshindi ni CCM!.

Mara tuu baada ya uchaguzi 2010, nadhani mimi ndio nilikuwa mtu wa kwanza humu kusema point blank kuwa "Chadema Haijajipanga"!, nilitukanwa sana!, leo 2012 matokeo ya kutojipanga, ndio haya yameanza kuonekana! ikiwa ni bado miaka 3 tuu kuingia kwenye uchaguzi mkuu mwingine ambapo mpaka sasa Chadema bado hawajajipanga!, unless katika kipindi hiki kilichobakia, Chadema sasa wafanye mambo yao kwa kukimbia wakati wenzao wakitembea, vinginevyo 2015 ni kilio kwa wengine na kicheko kwa wengineneo!.
Wasalaam.
Pasco.
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Mkuu nakubaliana nawe kwa asilimia Mia kwa hoja zako zote isipokuwa katika paragraph hapo juu.

Mipango ya CCM ni zaidi ya hiyo 'safety net' ingawa ni kweli kwamba moja ya mitaji mikubwa ya CCM ni umaskini wa wananchi wake.

Mikakati ya ushindi ya CCM imejikita katika maeneo mbali mbali kama vile

-Kutumia tume yake ya uchaguzi na kucheza na komputa mfano kuweka cooked data au ku omit baadhi ya vitongiji

-kutumia viongozi wa serikali kama vile ma DC, RC, mawaziri nk kuahidi au kuanzisha miradi ya maendeleo karibu au kwenye uchaguzi

-kutumia vyombo vya usalama kutisha wananchi

-kutumia vyombo vya usalama kuiba masanduku ya kura na kuingiza yaliyoandaliwa na CCM

-kutumia mamluki kuingiza kura feki

-kuengua wapiga kura wanaofahamika kuwa ni wa upinzani kwa kuzua 'issues' kwenye majina yao ktk daftari la wapiga kura ili wasiweze kupiga kura. Kazi ya kutambua na kupeleka majina hufanywa na wajumbe wa nyumba kumi

-kutofanya update ya mara kwa maraya daftari la wapiga kura

-kuhonga wagombea wazuri wa upinzani waachie ngazi au wajiondoe dakika za mwisho
-kununua shahada za wapiga kura

-kuhonga wapiga kura -hapa ndipo 'safety net' yako inaingia, ni sehemu tu ndogo ya mikakati

nk, nk, nk, ...

Sitaki kukuchosha, mbinu ni nyingi. Mbinu nyingi zinafahamika hata kwa CHADEMA, suala ni mikakati ya kuzuia au kupambana na kuziba hii mianya. Baadhi ya mapambano yanahitaji marekebisho ya katiba na sheria, mengine yanahitaji uelewa na uzalendo na mengine yanahitaji nguvu ya umma.

Suala la kusema CHADEMA haijajipanga si sahihi. Mapambano yanaendelea, mapambano ni magumu ila nguvu ya umma itashinda.

Kama ilivyo ngumu hata kuwaelimisha watu kama wewe ambao ni wasomi lakini humu jf mnashinda kutwa nzima mnaimba nyimbo za kina EL (fisadi), je hawa wa vijijini!

Mungu ibariki Tanzania iondoke kwenye mikono ya mafisadi
-
 
Wadau,

Namalizia takwimu fulani halafu nitarudi; lakini sio Takwimu za matokeo ya 2010 kwani haya kwa wengi ni batili na haitatoa picha kamili kuelekea 2015, na nadhani ni muhimu hoja hii iheshimiwe;
 
Mchambuzi said:
Wadau,

Namalizia takwimu fulani halafu nitarudi; lakini sio Takwimu za matokeo ya 2010 kwani haya kwa wengi ni batili na haitatoa picha kamili kuelekea 2015, na nadhani ni muhimu hoja hii iheshimiwe;
Click to expand...

Thanks kwa uzi huu Mchambuzi.

Nategemea pia utarudi na takwimu zilizonyambulika zaidi kwenda Ki- Wilaya.
Kwa mfano sidhani kama ni sahihi kuupa Mkoa wote wa Mbeya CHADEMA, huku wilaya kama ILEJE na CHUNYA zikiwa nyuma sana katika harakati hizi za mageuzi.
Takwimu hizi hazina maana kwa sasa kwa sababu nchi yetu haitumii UZITO WA MAJIMBO [electoral votes] katika kumchagua mtendaji mkuu wa nchi. Takwimu za Wilaya zitatoa picha halisi ya kura tarajiwa za CHADEMA na CCM.
 
Tunaweza pia kujifanya hizo ni idadi ya kura walizopata kivyama

MKOA IDADI YA KURA

CCM
DODOMA 849,561
KAGERA 1,048,294
KIGOMA 666,114
LINDI 450,620
MTWARA 658,220
PWANI 518,841
RUKWA 489,289
SINGIDA 545,074
TABORA 840,014
TANGA 891,942
* ZANZIBAR 15,540
6,973,509

CHADEMA
MWANZA 1,586,919
ARUSHA 723,874
DAR ES SALAAM 1,912,662
IRINGA 758,262
KILIMANJARO 739,529
MANYARA 533,894
MBEYA 1,056,126
7,311,266

VYAMA VINGINE VYA UPINZANI
MARA 752,906
MOROGORO 988,113
RUVUMA 607,920
SHINYANGA 1,380,953
3,729,892
 
MC said:
Hapana mkuu, najua unaangalia kura zilizopigwa miaka ya nyuma, hasa 2010; Kwa upande wa kigoma kuna tatizo kubwa sana lilifanyika juu ya kumnadi mgombea wa upinzani kwa nafasi ya urais;kwa mfano mtu ambaye Chadema walimtegemea sana amnadi mgombea wao wa uraisi kule kigoma ni ZZK, lakini huyu jamaa alikuwa busy kujinadi yeye mwenyewe kwa nafasi ya ubunge wake na ni mara chache sana aliweka msisitizo kwenye kumnadi Dr. Slaa. Fuatilia hotuba zake nyingi wakati wa kampeni utagundua hilo, alifikia hatua ya kujinadi yeye kwa nafasi ya uraisi 2015.

Swala la watu kumuunga mkono mbunge wa chama flani na si mgombea Uraisi ni kweli inatokea, lakini hii huwa ni katika level ya Jimbo kwa sababu flani flani, na si kwa Mkoa mzima wenye majimbo zaidi ya matano.
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Does it mean Zitto is the reason why Kikwete (62.98%) Won Kura Za Kigoma Kaskazini Dhidi ya Dr. Slaa (30.66%)? Wapo wanaojenga hoja ya uchakachuaji katika hili lakini iwapo hizo hotuba za kampeni zina mashiko, basi ni ushahidi mzuri kwamba sio kila sehemu CCM ilichakachua matokeo; Hata Kwa Mbowe pale Hai, JK alimshinda Dr. Slaa kwa almost 30% kama kwa Zitto, na hawa wawili waliingia uchaguzi ule wakiwa ni viongozi wakuu wa kitaifa wa Chadema;

Kwa mfano:

Dr. Slaa alimbwaga Kikwete kwenye majimbo sita, huku mengi yakiwa ni ya wabunge wapya, na watu ambao hawakuwa wanasikika katika anga za siasa hata kupitia uongozi katika idara mbalimbali za Chadema; Majimbo hayo na wabunge hao ni kama ifuatavyo:

  • Kiwia, Ilemela, Dr, Slaa alimshinda Kikwete kwa karibia 2%;
  • Machemli ukerewe, Dr. Slaa alimshinda Kikwete kwa karibia 2%;
  • Lema, Arusha, Dr. Slaa alimshinda Kikwete kwa karibia 16%;
  • Sugu, Mbeya Mjini, Dr. Slaa alimshinda Kikwete kwa karibia 13%;

Hii ni aibu kubwa wa Mbowe na Zitto;

Zitto na Mbowe walikuwa ni wakongwe wa siasa tayari hivyo katika majimbo yao, ilitarajiwa wangempatia ushindi Dr. Salaa dhidi ya Kikwete kama alivyofanya mkongwe mwenzao Ndesamburo Moshi Mjini ambapo Dr. Slaa alimshinda Kikwete kwa karibia 12%;

Halima Mdee Kawe alipunguza sana ushindi wa JK,kwani JK alimshinda Dr. Slaa kwa kama 3%;
Mnyika, Ubungo pia, alipunguza sana ushindi wa JK, kwani JK alimshinda Dr. Slaa kwa kama 5%;

Silinde kule Mbozi West alikuwa ni mgeni sana lakini Dr. Slaa lost by margin ndogo kuliko kwa Zitto na Mbowe kwani Mbozi West, JK won by 27%;

Rev. Msigwa Iringa Mjini, pia alikuwa mgeni, na JK alimshinda Dr. Slaa kwa only 10%;

What does this tell us?
1. sio kila sehemu kura zilichakachuliwa, hivyo tukiwa makini, tunaweza kutumia sehemu ya takwimu za 2010 kupata mwanga fulani;
2. ni suala la Zitto na Mbowe; Charity begins at home, sasa kama hawawezi ku deliver kwenye kura za Urais majimboni kwao, wao wana hoja gani ya nguvu kwamba wataweza mbio za Urais?
 
Sangarara said:
mwanza ni sadakalawe kivipi?
Click to expand...

juzi kati hapa ccm imeshinda umeya jiji la mwanza kwa kishindo.katika majimbo yote ya uchaguzi yaliyopo mwanza mengi ni ya ccm, hiyo ya kudanganya umma kuwa mwanza ni ya cdm imetoka wapi na kwa vipi?kwa sababu ya yale majimbo matatu ambayo yalipatikana kutokana na madhaifu ya ccm?
 
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