Knowledge yako ya finance (in general) na ya banking industry and retirement funds (in particular) ni yenye kutia mashaka makubwa sana (if not outright shaky)! Nadhani unaongea tu kadri akili yako inavyokutuma.
Yaani tayari ndo unadhani unanifahamu?!
In principle, commercial banks and retirement funds aren’t free range investors. Haziwekezi vyovyote tu zinavyopenda, kama wewe unavyodhani. As highly regulated institutions, they face a host of prohibited activities and investments. Hata kama mradi wa kuchimba gas ungekuwa unagharimu just US$3 million, hakuna commercial bank (local or foreign) ambayo ingefanya direct investment kwenye shughuli kama hiyo, kwasababu banking regulations haziruhusu!
Sasa haya yanahusiana vipi na nilichoandika?! Au ndo ile unataka kujionesha kwamba "Mtaalamu" wa Finance and Banking na matokeo yake unaishia kuleta viroja?!
Duniani kote, highly regulated institutional investors wanaweza kuwekeza kwenye shughuli kama hizo ONLY indirectly by funneling their funds through investment vehicles such as private equity firms that typically raise capital from hundreds (or thousands) of institutional investors kwa ajili ya high-risk investments za design hiyo. This approach, which enables each institutional investor to risk only a small percentage of its total funds, isn’t accidental. Iko hivyo for financial risk management reasons, na pia iko hivyo bila kujali kama uwekezaji utafanyika Tanzania (ambako government policies hazitabiriki) au utafanyika Marekani (ambako government policies zinatabirika).
Tukija kwenye upande wa mikopo, the approach is more or less the same. All lenders have self-imposed (or, if applicable, regulatory) single-borrower limits. They do this to avoid the concentration of credit risk. Hata kama pesa anayo, hakuna lender anayekubali kutoa mkopo ambao kutolipika kwake kutamaanisha kuyumba vibaya (kama sio kufa) kwa biashara yake. That said, mikopo kwa ajili ya miradi mikubwa na yenye high risk kama huu haitolewi na lender mmoja. Hiyo mikopo, kwa kawaida, ni syndicated loans zinazotolewa na consortium of lenders. There’s a lead lender, ambaye ndiye anaratibu shughuli zote za huo ukopeshaji na huyo ndiye anayetambulika rasmi kwa borrower kama mkopeshaji. Lenders hawaogopi credit risk per se; wanachoogopa ni concentration of credit risk. They do credit risk-based lending. Credit risk lazima iwe ndani ya credit limits zao na return lazima iwe commensurate na credit risk wanayokubali kuichukua!
So, in the upshot, tambua kwamba hata foreign companies hazitumii pesa zao zenyewe wala hazipati pesa kutoka mahali pamoja tu. Nyuma ya hiyo pesa zinazoitumia kwenye shughuli za uwekezaji kuna consortium of lenders or ad hoc pool of equity investors.
In short, maelezo mareeeefu lakini ni IRRELEVANT na bado umebaki kujificha kwenye customers deposits hoja ambayo nimeshakuambia SIO YA MSINGI!!
Hoja ya ambae nilim-quote ni kuhusu Local PPP kuwekeza kwenye Upstream Segment of the gas industry!! Hapo ndipo nikamwambiaupstream segment inahitaji massive investment ambayo hatuna local institutions including the government zinazoweza ku-afford gharama zake!
Wewe ukadai financing sio lazima ifanywe na local banks (ingawaje hakuna popote ambapo nilisema lazima ifanywe na local banks!! Na kama umesahau ambacho uliandika, ni hiki hapa
Local PPP haina maana kwamba financing lazima ifanywe na local banks pekee yake. Local and foreign banks can work together (as a consortium) to offer a syndicated loan. Kama wapo (again, kama wapo) local investors ambao wanaweza kupata mikopo even from consortiums of local and foreign banks au kutoka taasisi zingine za fedha duniani (e.g., AfDB, IFC), hiyo bado itakuwa local PPP.
Ndipo nikakuuliza,ni foreign banks za nchi zipi zinazoweza kukopesha Tanzanian local institutions ZAIDI YA USD 50 BILLION??
Sasa hayo maelezo yako yanajibu hilo swali?!
Kwenye post yangu ya mwisho nilikuuliza:-
Hivi umesoma nilichaondoka?!
Narudia tena hilo swali... hivi huwa unasoma?!
Au nawe ni wale wavivu wa kusoma ambao wakisoma sentensi mbili za juu tu, wanakurupuka na kukimbilia ku-comment!!
Man, kama ni mvivu wa kusoma basi HUTAWEZA kufanya mijadala na mimi coz' I have this conversational writing style!!!
Hiki ndicho niliandika..
NI wapi nimesema Local PPP ni LAZIMA ifanywe na Local Banks?!
Nimetaja local entities kama vile Mifuko ya Kijamii na TPA kwa sababu ndio wanaonekana wana pesa! Aidha nilitaja local banks sio kama Lenders bali kama Investors kuonesha tuchukue local entities ZOOOTE tunazoamini kwamba zina pesa bado haziwezi kuwa na ubavu wa kufanya such massive investments!!!
Na hata tukichukua Banks as Lenders, hivi unafahamu hapa tunazungumzia mradi unaozungumzia investments yenye ukubwa kiasi gani?
LNG Processing Plant peke yake inatarajiwa kugharimu USD 30 BILLION... na hizo ni 2014/2015 estimations.
Kiasi kikubwa cha gesi kinapatikana deep sea... baadhi ya vitalu vipo over 100KM from OFFSHORE!
Ukishafika hizo +100KM, unaenda more than 2KM below the sea surface only to find the seabed, kisha unaenda tena more than 1KM below seabed!
Sasa ulishawahi kujiuliza gharama za uchimbaji wa gesi iliyo more than 100KM Offshore, and more than 3KM from water surface?
NI Foreign banks zipi zinazoweza kutoa mkopo kwa local investors (including the government) ambao kwa uchache ni ZAIDI YA SH TRILLION 100?!
Ni Local Investor yupi Tanzania mwenye sifa za kukopeshwa japo USD 1 Billion?!
Ni International Lender yupi duniani anayeweza kuikopesha Serikali ya Afrika angalau USD 10 Billion?!
Do I need to remind you kwamba unapokopesha serikali hususani kama ya Africa moja ya mambo unayotakiwa kuangalia ni Government Policies?!
Nani anaweza kutoa mkopo mkubwa kama huo kwa nchi ambayo huwezi kuwa hata na clue Rais ajaye priority yake itakuwa ipi?!
Wewe ungekuwa ni Bosi wa moja ya hizo benki ungekuwa tayari kutoa hizo pesa kwa mradi ambao huna uhakika kama serikali zote zitakazofuata zita-support project husika?!
Do I need to remind you wakati priority za JK zilikuwa Bagamoyo Port na Gas Industry lakini alipotoka tu madarakani aliyekuja baada yake hizo hazikuwa priorities zake?!
Do I need to remind you kwamba vile vyote alivyokuwa ameahidiwa Dangote na JK, Magu alivipiga chini (Government Unpredictability)?!
Unadhani hao international lenders hawaangalii mambo kama hayo na kuyaona kama THREATS kwao especially kwa mkopo ambao biashara yake itaanza kuzalisha mapato at least in the next 8 years?!
Mnapenda sana kuongea mambo kirahisi rahisi!!
Hivi hayo maelezo yako yanajibu hiyo hoja?!
SOMA, KISHA JIBU ULICHOULIZWA!!! Kama ni mvivu wa kusoma basi mijadala ya Jf HUTAIWEZA!!
