Benki za Marekani kufeli ni ishara ya nini?

Benki za Marekani kufeli ni ishara ya nini?

Lycaon pictus said:
Wiki iliyopita Benki ya Marekani Silicon Valley Bank ilipatwa na bank run(watu wengi kutaka kutoa pesa benki kwa pamoja) na kupelekea kufilisika. Tena benki ya pili, Silvergate, imepatwa na kitu kama hicho.

Haya mambo yanaashiria nini? Tujipangaje?
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Ya management mbaya ya uchumi hasa Kwa kuamini sana free market economy.
 
Nature said:
Na Silvergate nao walinunua Bondi za serikali kwa Fedha za watu?
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Iko hivi kamanda, reserve bank of America (benki kuu ya marekani) inaundwa na hizo bank matawi zote za majimbo, ili kukontrol uchumi na thamani ya pesa marekani kuna njia moja wapo wanaitumia ni kuongeza au kupunguza riba, ikitokea riba imeahushwa mana ake watakaoenda kukopa hela bank ni wengi sababu kiwango cha kurudisha kinakuwa ni kidogo, ndo unaona sasa baadhi ya bank matawi za majimbo zinarun out of cash, hiyo ni kawaida, na kumbuka mpka riba inashushwa kuna sababu lbd unemployment rate imeongezeka sector binafsi (in USA ni waajiri wakubwa kumbuka) wanaongezewa uwezo wa kukopa ili kurun shughuli zao na kurudisha bank kwa Riba ndogo, sababu ni nying mfano kukontrol inflation, kukontrol foreign exchange blah blah
 
Bandar Abbas said:
ile ilikuwa a classic case ya bank induced panic, walipotoa news kuwa wanataka cash injection from equity markets , hedge funds nyingi zilitoa pesa haraka kupelekea collaspe ya benki.

Ila dont read too much into it, isipokuwa credit suisse , all major banks za dunia i.e Jp morgan , BOA , Goldman sachs ukiangalia reports za financial stress tests na liquidity ratios vs leverage portfolio zao wako sawa currently .
Ila risks to tier 2 banks and below bado zipo
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Naomba kujua hizo ratios kwa SVB zilikuwa mbaya na zilikuwa vizuri? Unatabiri kutakuwa na implications nyingine zipi kwa Fed kupandisha interest rate? na sababu bado investors wame panic tutegeme nini kwa maoni yako? Hizo za implications zitatufikia Africa? sababu naona nchi kama Kenya wanaishiwa Dollar na sisi tunazo kwa ajili ya miezi mitatu?
 
Mr Pixel3a said:
Kwan Kuna bank inatumia Ela zake yenyew kununua bonds za serikali?
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Kaka niende nje ya swali lako kidogo labda tuongezeane ufahamu kidogo kuhusu uchumu wa America (north america muungano wa USA). Uchumi was America unategemea sana sector binafsi na ndo zimeajiri Sana, zinaexport Sana, na pia mpka zinaushawishi kwenye vyama vyao vikuu vya siasa democrats na republican, mfano kwenye election hivi vyama vinasapotiwa kifedha na hizi sector kutegemea na mlengo wa chama, turudi kwenye mada, sector binafsi nyingi even zile giants zinarun shughuli zao lwa mikopo kumbuka ndo zimeajiri watu wengi, nchi inapokumbwa na tatizo mfano tu la ajira za sector binafsi kupungua (stress kwa government) serikali kupitia benki kuu inaamua kuongeza mzunguko wa fedha mtaani (namanisha kwa investor wamiliki wa makampuni) hivyo wanashusha riba, riba Ikishuka mana ake mtu anakopa halaf anarudisha kwa kiwango kidgo. mana ake rate ya watu kukopa (cash) inakuwa kubwa, kwa hiyo kwa benki hizi za majimbo zinarun out ya cash, lkn hii yote kwa ujumla inaashiria uchumi umedorola kiasi, sorry uandishi mbovo
 
WILE said:
Naomba kujua hizo ratios kwa SVB zilikuwa mbaya na zilikuwa vizuri? Unatabiri kutakuwa na implications nyingine zipi kwa Fed kupandisha interest rate? na sababu bado investors wame panic tutegeme nini kwa maoni yako? Hizo za implications zitatufikia Africa? sababu naona nchi kama Kenya wanaishiwa Dollar na sisi tunazo kwa ajili ya miezi mitatu?
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SVB shida ilitokea waliinvest most of their cash in US govt bonds , bonds curves mostly in recessionary periods coupled with quantitative easing yields zake huwa zinamove inverse to interest rates, for now interest rates zinapanda globally hence bonds yields zimeplummet sana. SVB walipouza zile bonds yields at a loss kucover cash deficits wengi iliwapa fear kuwa bank yenyewe haina hela, ile panic ndo iliiangusha .
interest rates zikipanda at the FED or ECB huwa inamaanisha yields zipo juu huko , many investors ofcourse wataoffload assets in developing countries to developed countries where rates are high .
many developing countries africa , asia for sometime wataface dollar shortfalls till rates at the FED zishuke 2024 hapo , ukiongeza inflation its a double- whammy.
For Kenya and tanzania sitaread too much into it , its transitory for now hio dollar pressure itashuka with time
 
Mr Pixel3a said:
Kwan Kuna bank inatumia Ela zake yenyew kununua bonds za serikali?
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ndio , hata hapa tanzania its the same case, for every shilling unaweka bank , they lend ten times more , inaitwa fractional reserve lending .
Money kwa bank inaexist on paper in balance sheets , soma kuhusu fractional rreserve lending , utajua wezi wakubwa dunia waliovaa suti ni mabenki. Hela unaowapa ww ndo wanakukopesha , its really insane
 
Bandar Abbas said:
SVB shida ilitokea waliinvest most of their cash in US govt bonds , bonds curves mostly in recessionary periods coupled with quantitative easing yields zake huwa zinamove inverse to interest rates, for now interest rates zinapanda globally hence bonds yields zimeplummet sana. SVB walipouza zile bonds yields at a loss kucover cash deficits wengi iliwapa fear kuwa bank yenyewe haina hela, ile panic ndo iliiangusha .
interest rates zikipanda at the FED or ECB huwa inamaanisha yields zipo juu huko , many investors ofcourse wataoffload assets in developing countries to developed countries where rates are high .
many developing countries africa , asia for sometime wataface dollar shortfalls till rates at the FED zishuke 2024 hapo , ukiongeza inflation its a double- whammy.
For Kenya and tanzania sitaread too much into it , its transitory for now hio dollar pressure itashuka with time
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Thanks for the analysis. It was very informative.
 
Smokey D said:
Silicon valley sio watu walitoa pesa kwa pamoja, walinunua bonds za serikali kwa pesa za watu na mda huo powell kapandisha riba[emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787]
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NAKAZIA

Ongeza waliwekeza kwenye Crypto market ambayo nayo imeanguka sana kwa muda mrefu.

Nafikiri wanalazimika kuuza hizo long term bonds kwa hasara ili wajipange upya maana QE ishawadia
 
Bandar Abbas said:
SVB shida ilitokea waliinvest most of their cash in US govt bonds , bonds curves mostly in recessionary periods coupled with quantitative easing yields zake huwa zinamove inverse to interest rates, for now interest rates zinapanda globally hence bonds yields zimeplummet sana. SVB walipouza zile bonds yields at a loss kucover cash deficits wengi iliwapa fear kuwa bank yenyewe haina hela, ile panic ndo iliiangusha .
interest rates zikipanda at the FED or ECB huwa inamaanisha yields zipo juu huko , many investors ofcourse wataoffload assets in developing countries to developed countries where rates are high .
many developing countries africa , asia for sometime wataface dollar shortfalls till rates at the FED zishuke 2024 hapo , ukiongeza inflation its a double- whammy.
For Kenya and tanzania sitaread too much into it , its transitory for now hio dollar pressure itashuka with time
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Naam

Walitarajia us10 yr iwe around 1.76, projection za sasa za +/- 5.0 zimewaumiza maana wawekezaji wao wametoa hela kwenda kununua Bond za Serikali ambako bei imepaa.

Very interesting scenarios
 
Lycaon pictus said:
Na pia kiasili bonds za serikali ni uwekezaji salama zaidi wa kifedha. Ni kama risk free. Wengi wanawekeza huko, tungeona mabenki na taasisi nyingi zikianguka. Sidhani kama benki inaweza pata shida sababu ya kununua bonds.
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Huyo hajui hata anachokisema mkuu,
Tangu lini bonds zikateteresha bank
 
Bandar Abbas said:
SVB shida ilitokea waliinvest most of their cash in US govt bonds , bonds curves mostly in recessionary periods coupled with quantitative easing yields zake huwa zinamove inverse to interest rates, for now interest rates zinapanda globally hence bonds yields zimeplummet sana. SVB walipouza zile bonds yields at a loss kucover cash deficits wengi iliwapa fear kuwa bank yenyewe haina hela, ile panic ndo iliiangusha .
interest rates zikipanda at the FED or ECB huwa inamaanisha yields zipo juu huko , many investors ofcourse wataoffload assets in developing countries to developed countries where rates are high .
many developing countries africa , asia for sometime wataface dollar shortfalls till rates at the FED zishuke 2024 hapo , ukiongeza inflation its a double- whammy.
For Kenya and tanzania sitaread too much into it , its transitory for now hio dollar pressure itashuka with time
Click to expand...
Shukran mkuu kwa maarifa na maelezo mazuri
 
Bandar Abbas said:
ndio , hata hapa tanzania its the same case, for every shilling unaweka bank , they lend ten times more , inaitwa fractional reserve lending .
Money kwa bank inaexist on paper in balance sheets , soma kuhusu fractional rreserve lending , utajua wezi wakubwa dunia waliovaa suti ni mabenki. Hela unaowapa ww ndo wanakukopesha , its really insane
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Ina Maana ukiweka Ela bank mfano fixed account ama liquid mfano UTT wao wanaenda kuzibond serikalini?
 
Eeh wanaenda kuweka bonds hela zenu zinazaana tu huko zile faida za magawio ya kila mwezi ndo mishahara inalipwa, kodi zinalipwa na mikopo inatolewa 😀😀😀!

Ukiondoa mfumo wa hatifungani hakuna bank itabakia salama 🤣 kwa kutegemea riba za mikopo tu.

Ni ngumu sana kusimama kibiashara ukiwa una single source of income. Fatilia hilo kwa makini, relate na biashara zetu ndogo ndogo hizi kisha utakuja kunielewa vyema.

Mr Pixel3a said:
Ina Maana ukiweka Ela bank mfano fixed account ama liquid mfano UTT wao wanaenda kuzibond serikalini?
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