Gesi miaka 10 na zaidi ule mtungi mkubwa ulikuwa unanunua tshs 65,000. Baadae ikashuka mpaka 45,000 sasa inapanda taratibu iko 55,000. Kuna namna yule aliyekuwa anauza 65000 anataka ifike huko. Tukiwa na gesi yetu itashuka sana tena waijazie ktk mitungi huko huko mtwara wasisafirishe na bomba ili kupunguza ulanguzi wa watu wa kati.Wakuu wangu nipo chini ya miguu yenu.
Nikiwaomba mje hapa tujadiliane kwa kina juu ya mradi wetu wa LNG.
Kwanini mradi unachelewa?
Tufanye nini ili utekelezaji wake uanze kwa wakati?
Sisi kama watanzania njooni tujadili badala ya kuweka akili zetu kwenye Yanga na Simba njooni hapa.
Wakuu mtanisamehe kwa kuwashitukiza katika kikao hichi cha dharura. Nimeleta mjadala huu baada ya kushituliwa na hii habari.
US cautions Tanzania on LNG project delays
US cautions Tanzania on LNG project delays
Drawn-out negotiations with Tanzania govt point to investor fatigue while counting costs of engagement.www.theeastafrican.co.ke
The United States this week warned Tanzania of a likely exodus of investors in its long-anticipated, multimillion-dollar liquified natural gas project if it continues to be bogged down by delays over negotiation technicalities.
US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joy Basu told The EastAfrican in Dar es Salaam this week that companies such as Exxon Mobil that have been pushing the deal with Tanzanian authorities had reached a point where they were now “willing to walk away.”
“There is LNG in lots of places around the world now, and for Tanzania the window for this particular investment is closing fast. Such windows do not remain open forever,” said Ms Basu whose portfolio in the Joe Biden administration includes overseeing economic and regional affairs in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Tanzania lipo tatizo!Tulitakiwa kuanza utekelezaji hata kabla ya Mozambique.
Tafakari huu ushauri mikataba ya ‘oil and gas’ ina maeneo sita ya majadiliano; technical and commercial (sehemu kubwa ya majadiliano zilipo na zinachukuwa muda mrefu). Sehemu zinazobaki ni maeneo ya environment, social, political na economic benefit (hapa ndio mambo yenu ya local content yalipo). As far as ‘oil and gas’ negotiations are concerned hayo maeneo ya pili kwenye hoja za Zitto na watanzania mnaopigia kelele faida za local contents kwa wawekezaji hiyo sio key area kwao.$42b ni gharama ya mradi(capital) ilikua uanze kazi,ambapo makampuni husika yatakopa yajuako,mkataba haujaingiwa,unajadiliwa,we unauliza kiasi gani kitaenda kwenye uchumi wa tz!?..Kama mna bidhaa na malighafi za ujenzi wa miundombinu hakikisheni nyie ndiyo mnatoa,Kama hamna ni obvious vitatoka wanakojua wao,mradi wa maji ya Victoria mkia wa tabora mabomba yalitoka wapi!?..maana hela alitoa mhindi
Kuongea ni rahisi hata ikiwa mbali sana na uhalisia.Mining, Oil and gas ili iweze kukunufaisha ni either utafute technolojia uchimbe mwenyewe au uweke mzigo mezani mgawane shares.
Kama Oil and gas investment yake ni gharama basi tungeanza wenyewe kuchimba hata madini kama dhahabu nk na hii gas tuwe part ya exploration kwa kuweka budget na kuattach TPDC chini ya wazawa ili wajenge uzoefu.
Exploration is expensive and high risk hakuna anaebisha hilo. Ila ukienda kupekuwa makampuni yanayochukua hizo risks the likes of ‘Tullow’ ni government sponsored, waliobaki ni conglomerates ambao wanashiriki kwenye value chain nzima (upstream, midstream and downstream) wapo ten, they can afford those risk its part of their business.Kuongea ni rahisi hata ikiwa mbali sana na uhalisia.
Kufanya utafiti wa madini, gas na mafuta ni risk sana. Ilikuja kampuni ya Brazili kufanya utafiti wa mafuta nchini. Ilitumia dola milioni 760, na haikupata hata tone la mafuta. Ikaondoka, inaendelea na shughuli zake kama kawaida. Fikiria kama ingekuwa ni Serikali ya Tanzania imetumia pesa kiasi hicho, na imeambulia patupu.
Unapoondoka kwenda kufanya utafiti wa mafuta, gas au madini, chance yako ya kupata ni 0.1%. Iliyobakia 99.9% ni kupotea kwa pesa yako. Lakini katika leseni 10,000 za utafiti, ukabahatika kupata japo moja kuwa na matokeo mazuri, itafuta hasara ypte uliyoipata kwenye leseni 9,999. Ndiyo maana makampuni yanayofanya utafiti na uchimbaji mafuta na madini, kwa kiasi kikubwa ni yale tale Duniani kote. Wao wana miradi mingi inayozalisha ndiyo maana wana uwezo wa kuhimili hizo hasara.
Wewe unajua nini kuhusu hizo mega projects investment!? Hamna ulichoandika cha maana hapa kupinga hoja zake zaidi ya utopolo mtupu.Wewe kuandika tu kiswahili huwezi,halafu unawadhihaki akina zitto...plus una poor knowledge ya mega projects investments
Sometimes watu kama hao I admire their confidence (ni watanzania tu tupo hivi), unakuta mtu hana ata abc ya jambo ila anapinga huyo balaa.Wewe unajua nini kuhusu hizo mega projects investment!? Hamna ulichoandika cha maana hapa kupinga hoja zake zaidi ya utopolo mtupu.
Unapichanganya siasa na Biashara Mambo kama haya huwa hayaepukiki.. LNG itaenda kuua Biashara za mafuta na wanasiasa wetu ndo wenye hizo biasha Kwa wingi, hujajiuliza kwanini sahivi vituo vya mafuta vimekuwa vingi kama uyoga?..Wakuu wangu nipo chini ya miguu yenu.
Nikiwaomba mje hapa tujadiliane kwa kina juu ya mradi wetu wa LNG.
Kwanini mradi unachelewa?
Tufanye nini ili utekelezaji wake uanze kwa wakati?
Sisi kama watanzania njooni tujadili badala ya kuweka akili zetu kwenye Yanga na Simba njooni hapa.
Wakuu mtanisamehe kwa kuwashitukiza katika kikao hichi cha dharura. Nimeleta mjadala huu baada ya kushituliwa na hii habari.
US cautions Tanzania on LNG project delays
US cautions Tanzania on LNG project delays
Drawn-out negotiations with Tanzania govt point to investor fatigue while counting costs of engagement.www.theeastafrican.co.ke
The United States this week warned Tanzania of a likely exodus of investors in its long-anticipated, multimillion-dollar liquified natural gas project if it continues to be bogged down by delays over negotiation technicalities.
US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joy Basu told The EastAfrican in Dar es Salaam this week that companies such as Exxon Mobil that have been pushing the deal with Tanzanian authorities had reached a point where they were now “willing to walk away.”
“There is LNG in lots of places around the world now, and for Tanzania the window for this particular investment is closing fast. Such windows do not remain open forever,” said Ms Basu whose portfolio in the Joe Biden administration includes overseeing economic and regional affairs in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Labda utueleweshe wengine hiyo LNG ni nini hasaUnapichanganya siasa na Biashara Mambo kama haya huwa hayaepukiki.. LNG itaenda kuua Biashara za mafuta na wanasiasa wetu ndo wenye hizo biasha Kwa wingi, hujajiuliza kwanini sahivi vituo vya mafuta vimekuwa vingi kama uyoga?..
Naomba kukuweka sawa ndugu mchangiaji, lengo la kuzalisha LNG ni ili tuisafirishe kwenda masoko ya nje. Kwa hiyo haiwezi kuua biashara ya mafuta inayotegemea soko la ndani.Unapichanganya siasa na Biashara Mambo kama haya huwa hayaepukiki.. LNG itaenda kuua Biashara za mafuta na wanasiasa wetu ndo wenye hizo biasha Kwa wingi, hujajiuliza kwanini sahivi vituo vya mafuta vimekuwa vingi kama uyoga?..
Unaleta masimulizi badala ya kuleta kinachotakiwa kufanyika.Hopelee kabisa.Masimulizi hayabadili gas kuwa pesa Kwa Nchi.Liwe somo kuwapa vilaza kama hakina Makamba sensitive sectors. Yeye na kampuni yake hakina Zitto wanachukulia $42 billion ni hela ya mzaha kuirudisha.
Wakitoka hapo wanaongea ujinga wa local contents sijui tutakuwa tunauza kuku mia ngapi kwa siku etc with nonsense.
Muulize sasa hiyo $42 billion ina justy specification za plant au akupe breakdown cost, hawana hayo majibu; ukiwaona sasa wanavyokaa na wawekezaji hayo mapozi yao utadhani watu wa maana wakati atawajui hela yenyewe inarudi vipi.
My guess Tanzania itakuwa imestuka $42 billion ni inflated costs ya mradi. Sehemu kubwa ya hiyo hela itaenda kwa ‘Subsea 7’ kampuni ambayo ni joint venture ya marekani na Norway ni specialised engineering firm ya offshore construction na kutandaza pipes, nyingine inaenda kutoa biashara ya steel kwa makampuni ya Norway ambayo yapo mengi huko kwao na mfaidika mwingine ni LNG construction firm ambayo itakuwa ya kimarekani tu na yenyewe.
Hapo ukidadavua utakuta 90% ya hizo $42 billion zinafaida kwenye uchumi wao wana kila sababu ya ku inflate hizo costs.
Bado sasa hesabu za kurudisha hizo hela ni pasua kichwa na kama sehemu kubwa ya investment ni mkopo with interest ya 6% tu ni shida. Mradi ukianza hela ya investment inatoka kwanza kwenye faida regardless ya hali ya soko (sometimes production is high, sometimes is low). Kuna kanuni zake hapo, if global demand is low kurudisha deni unaweza kujikuta unazalisha na upati chochote zaidi ya kulipa deni tu.
Haya sio mambo ya kukurupuka ni very technical inataka uelewa mpana wa maswala ya finance, oil and gas industry, global politics, etc. Sio mambo ya kukurupuka na kusikiliza ropo ropo za mtu kama Zitto au January ambao uelewa wao wa hayo mambo ni mdogo mno kwa kuwasikiliza.
Mozambique hamna walichofanikiwa hadi leo zaidi ya kupelekewa isisTulitakiwa kuanza utekelezaji hata kabla ya Mozambique.
Hizi shudu zote hazihalalishi malalamiko yako, sababu mkataba haujasainiwa na hao wawekezaji wanalalama tupo slow Sana watavunja muungano wao wa kuwekeza gas ya Lindi,we tayari ushakuja na ujuaji wako Tanzania hatupati kitu, mkataba umeuona wapi!?..kana zitto kasema watanzania watanufaika na kuhudumia huo mradi,kakosea wapi mpaka umdhihaki!?..subiri mkataba usainiwe ndiyo ulie, unamaanisha wewe unajua kuliko wote walioko jikoni ku-negotiate!?..acha ujuajiTafakari huu ushauri mikataba ya ‘oil and gas’ ina maeneo sita ya majadiliano; technical and commercial (sehemu kubwa ya majadiliano zilipo na zinachukuwa muda mrefu). Sehemu zinazobaki ni maeneo ya environment, social, political na economic benefit (hapa ndio mambo yenu ya local content yalipo). As far as ‘oil and gas’ negotiations are concerned hayo maeneo ya pili kwenye hoja za Zitto na watanzania mnaopigia kelele faida za local contents kwa wawekezaji hiyo sio key area kwao.
Hayo maeneo sita yamajadiliano yanapelekea kuwa na clauses si chini ya 10 mpaka 12 za lazima kwenye mkataba, na zinaweza kuwa zaidi.
Bado faida (sehemu ya commercial negotiations) kwenye PSA ina fixed terms hizi zinatoka kwanza ambazo ni royalty na recovery costs (investment la deni la $42 billion). Kinachobaki mgawanyo wake ni variable hapo ndio kuna government share, contractors profit na tax watakazo lipa. Sasa ngoja kipindi cha low production kifike ndio utajua hujui ukiingia kichwa na investment kubwa kama hiyo ya $42 billion na bila ya kupekuwa kiasi gani ni mkopo na interests zake.
☝️Kwenye hayo mambo huu mjadala ata aujafika huko, so far ni general discussions tu.
Sasa wewe hujui hata hiyo $42 ni ya nini, kitu ambacho kila mtu humu anajua isipokuwa wewe. Kweli unataka tuelimishane kwenye haya mambo wakati hata common sense ya kuelewa hizo $42 billion huna.
Ukiona mada zipo juu ya uwezo sio vibaya ukabaki kuwa msomaji au ukiingia uende na mtindo wa kuuliza kuliko kuingia na ujuaji wakati hata abc la jambo husika huna nikikwambia ‘unitisation clause’ serikali aijakubali si ajabu hata ukaenda google na kurudi ujaelewa hiyo clause ina maswala gani.
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