Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

ni kweli walikuwa hawajajiunga, lakin kasi ile walionyeshaa kutaka kujiunga NATO na doria za marekan ukraine zilitosha kufaham matarajio yao...
tukisema Ukraine hakuna wanajeshi wa NATO tutakuwa tunajidanganya,
Ukraine hakuna NATO officially lakin wanaoperate unofficially Ukraine....
RUSSIA na NATO wanafinyana gizani kwa silaha na mchana kwa propaganda
Asante, ila sioni kasi. Maana Ukraine walitaka kuingia tangu miaka 14 hawakukubaliwa (wanachama wote wanahitaji kukubali). Na katika miezi kabla ya vita viongozi mbalimbali walisema haitawezekana kwa Ukraine.

Kuhusu wanajeshi wa NATO katika Ukraie: sijaona ushahidi wowote, hata Warusi hasemi wamo. Haya ni uvumi hapa TZ pekee, watu wakitumia elimu yao au zaidi hisia. Wanachofanya ni kuwapa Ukraine habari kutoka satelaiti za ujasusi na ndege za upelelezi kama AWACS zinazozunguka juu ya Bahari Baltiki na Bahari Nyeusi.
Wanajeshi wa Ukraine wanafundishwa matumizi ya silaha kama mizinga mikubwa ya 155mm huko Poland.
 
The UN Office for Humanitarian Affairs is creating a team to coordinate the evacuation of civilians from the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, the organization's Secretary General's office said.

“Today, Wednesday, we had discussions with the authorities in Moscow and Kyiv to develop an operational framework for the evacuation of the civilian population,” said Farhan Haq, deputy spokesman for the Secretary GeneralView attachment 2203129
Si wanyoshe mikono juu watoke.
Un alitakiwa amwambie zele ache kutumi human shield
 
Nimeshangaa mara kadhaa kuhusu picha nyingi za vifaru vya T72 / T80 na 80 vikionekana vililipuka hadi sehemu ya juu yenye mzinga (turret - ngome?) iko kando. Kumbe inaonekana kuna kasoro katika muundo wa vifaru hivyo. Wanatunza ramia zote kwenye ngome hiyo kwa sababu walipanga kifaru kiwe na askari watatu pekee. Hivyo kuna faida kifaru si kubwa vile. Hasara ni kwamba wanajeshi wako sehemu 1 pamoja na ramia, kama kifaru kinapigwa ni rahisi mno ramia kulipuka na kulipusha ramia zote. Tokeo ni mlipuko mkali sana na ngome yote inatengwa na gari lenyewe. - Tatizo hilo lilijulikana tangu vita ya kwanza ya Iraki ambako vifaru vya Saddam vilionyesha udhaifu huu, vyote vilikuwa vya Kirusi. - Na vifaru vya Ukraine wana tatizo hilohilo.

Soma CNN:

Russia's tanks in Ukraine have a 'jack-in-the-box' design flaw​


Brad Lendon, CNN
(CNN)Russian tanks with their tops blown off are just the latest sign that Russia's invasion of Ukraine isn't going to plan.
Hundreds of Russian tanks are thought to have been destroyed since Moscow launched its offensive, with British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace on Monday estimating it had lost as many as 580.
But Moscow's problems go beyond the sheer number of tanks it has lost. Experts say battlefield images show Russian tanks are suffering from a defect that Western militaries have known about for decades and refer to as the "jack-in-the-box effect." Moscow, they say, should have seen the problem coming.
The problem relates to how the tanks' ammunition is stored. Unlike modern Western tanks, Russian ones carry multiple shells within their turrets. This makes them highly vulnerable as even an indirect hit can start a chain reaction that explodes their entire ammunition store of up to 40 shells.
The resulting shockwave can be enough to blast the tank's turret as high as a two-story building, as can be seen in a recent video on social media.
A man inspects destroyed tank of the Russian army about 40 kilometers west of Kyiv, the Ukraine capital.

"What we are witnessing with Russian tanks is a design flaw," said Sam Bendett, an adviser with the Russian Studies Program at the Center for a New American Security.
"Any successful hit ... quickly ignites the ammo causing a massive explosion, and the turret is literally blown off."
The flaw means the tank's crew -- usually two men in the turret and a third driving -- are sitting ducks, said Nicholas Drummond, a defense industry analyst specializing in land warfare and a former British Army officer.
"If you don't get out within the first second, you're toast."

The 'jack-in-the-box" effect​


Drummond said exploding munitions are causing problems for almost all of the armored vehicles Russia is using in Ukraine. He gave the example of the BMD-4 infantry fighting vehicle, typically manned by up to three crew and able to carry another five soldiers. He said the BMD-4 was a "mobile coffin" that was "just obliterated" when hit by a rocket.
But the design flaw with its tanks should be particularly galling for Moscow as the problems have been so widely telegraphed.
They came to the attention of Western militaries during the Gulf wars against Iraq in 1991 and 2003, when large numbers of the Iraqi army's Russian-made T-72 tanks suffered the same fate -- turrets being blown from their bodies in anti-tank missile strikes.
Drummond said Russia hadn't learned the lessons from Iraq and that consequently many of its tanks in Ukraine featured similar design flaws with their autoloading missile systems.
When the T-90 series -- the successor to the T-72 -- came into service in 1992 its armor was upgraded but its missile loading system remained similar to its predecessor's, leaving it just as vulnerable, Drummond said. The T-80, another Russian tank seeing action in the Ukraine invasion, has a similar missile loading system.
A destroyed Russian tank sits  in the village of Dmytrivka, Ukraine.

There are some benefits to such a system. Bendett, at the Center for a New American Security, said Russia had chosen this system to save space and give the tanks a lower profile, making them harder to hit in battle.
Western militaries, however, had been spurred into action by the T-72's fate in Iraq.
"(Western militaries) all learned from the Gulf War, and from seeing tanks killed during that time, that you have to compartmentalize the ammunition," Drummond said.
He pointed to the US military's Stryker infantry fighting vehicles developed after the first war in Iraq.
"That has a turret that sits on top, and that turret does not enter the crew compartment. It purely sits on top and all the ammunition is inside that turret," he said. "So if the turret gets hit and blown off, the crew is still safe below. That's a very clever design."
Other Western tanks, such as the M1 Abrams used by the US and some allied armies, are larger and have no carousel. In the Abrams, a fourth crew member in the tank retrieves shells from a sealed compartment and transfers them to the gun for firing.
Ukrainian servicemen look at a destroyed Russian tank on a road in the village of Rusaniv, in the Kyiv region on April 16.

The compartment has a door that the crew member opens and closes between each shot taken by the tank, meaning that if the tank is hit, only one shell is likely to be exposed in the turret.
"An accurate hit can damage the tank, but not necessarily kill the crew," Bendett said.
And Drummond said the shells used by Western militaries sometimes burn under the high heat generated by an incoming missile, but they don't explode.

Hard to replace​


There is no easy way of knowing how many Russian tanks have been destroyed in Ukraine. The open-source intelligence monitoring website Oryx said on April 28 that at least 300 Russian tanks had been destroyed, with another 279 either damaged, abandoned or captured.
However, the site only counts instances where it has visual evidence, so Russian losses could be much higher.

And these losses are not just about equipment. When Wallace, the British defense secretary, gave his estimate of 580 lost tanks to the House of Commons he also said more than 15,000 Russian military personnel had been killed during its invasion.
It's hard to know how many of those are tank crew
, but what is not in doubt is that the crews are not easy to replace.
Training a tank crew could take up to 12 months,
said Aleski Roinila, a former tank crewman in the Finnish Defense Forces, "and that's considered quick."
And for Russia to replace hundreds of crew at this point in the war would be a tall order -- especially when the tanks they are expected to use are so flawed.
 
kwenye jukwaa hili mimi ndo najiona sina kitu kuliko wote, nimefuatilia thread hii toka mwanzo :
nilichogundua hapa nikuwa
Russia wanapoona silaha, za Ukraine zinaongeza makali nao wanaongeza kidogo nguvu,
kwa mtazamo wangu mimi Ukraine wangemaliza hii vita kidiplomasia
huko mbelee Russia watakaza zaidi alafu wanataiharibu nchi yote,,
ila nyuma ya hii op naona kuna kitu wengi huenda hatukijui au tunakijua ila hatukielew....
maana bwana zelewesky nashindwa kumuelew kitu kimojaa..."kwani kujiunga NATO na kutojiunga mkaishi na jirani yako kwa amani shidaa iko wapo?"
kwani NATO wana faida gani kubwa ambayo inaweza kureplace maisha ya watu na miundo mbinu inayoharibiwa kila uchwao ?
au mimi ndo sijui ?
faida gani member wa NATO wanapata kinacholingana na kila Ukraine inapoteza ?
na uchumi wa dunia unatatizika kiasi hiki ?
kila siku nasikia wataalamu mbalmbl wanasema Russia ili miscalculate resistance ya Ukraine, lakin mimi nahis USA ndo ili miscalculate response ya RUSSIA kwa Ukraine kujiunga NATO,,,,
ila kwa kutumia historia tu, mimi binafsi nafikiri Russia pia hajakurupuka kwenye hili,,,, huenda hii vita ikatufikisha mahali AMBAPO sis third world countries hatukutegemea..........
wengi tunafikiri RUSSIA kakosea sana,
lakin siku chache hizi nimeona china ikitaka kuweka millitary base solomon island USA NA Australia wamekuwa wakali sana na wamesem watarespond accordingly,
ndo najiuliza kwa nn wao Ukraine hawafeel the same taste ??
jaman sisi hapa jamiiforum nahis kuna vitu hatuvijui zaidi ya yale tusumayo Google huko....ila mataifa haya yanajuana.....
kwa kifupi tu niseme dunia inahitaji Russia yenye NGUVU kuliko yenyewe inavotuhitaji kwa sababu USA akiwa kiranja wa dunia ana misuse power yake..

nadhani temeshuhudia akitumia nguvu yale kunyanyasa mataifa mengi Libya, Iraq, etc
Point ya msingi kuwahi kutokea kwenye huu Uzi.
 
Ombi la werevu ni Russia ashinde vita dunia itakua salama,mbali ya hapo Africa itatawwliwa upya na us NATO,hii haijifichi on a mfano wa mashirika makubwa duniani tasisi kubwa duniani zinavyo fyata mkia us ikitoa tamko, lakini tukumbuke vita hii imeandaliwa Kwa muda mrefu hivyo kuna mipango inaendelea,kama Israel kuzidi kujitanua pia marekani atakua Dalali mzuri baadae Wa gas.
Hii vita ni ya kiuchumi zaidi,na naona kabisa US atafaidika sana.
 
Mnaona hapo chini? ni kwa wa'dutch hapo... Hilo "dude" limewekewa picha ya Putin pembezoni kuna bango linasema "Hit Putin for One Euro" View attachment 2203208So unasogea hapo unapiga Paa [emoji95] kisha unaacha Euro 1 tu....

Sasa vuta picha mhusika anavuta mpunga kiasi gani [emoji847]... Na hili linawezekana kwa mazuzu tu, sie washamba ndio ila huezi kutuchukilia ela kizembe kiasi hiki...
Russofobia.
American empire imefikia kikomo. Huwa naamini Old Egypt ilikuwa ni Africa Empire hivyo ni circle tu.
Scandinavia hawazaliani waafrica wanaenda kuishi kule halafu mambo yao ya same sex marriage yatafuta kizazi. Baada ya mika 100 black race itakuwa na watu wengi.
 
Putin warned that Russia would respond with lightning speed to any strategic threats should they arise:

“If someone intends to intervene in ongoing events from the outside and creates unacceptable strategic threats for Russia, they should know that our responses to oncoming strikes will be lightning fast, fast.

We have all the tools for this - such that no one can boast now. And we will not brag - we will use them if necessary. And I want everyone to know this. We have made all the decisions on this matter."View attachment 2202511
Dah!
 
furahi bac na Ujerumani kakubali.
Ujerumani hailipi rubel. Wanatumia njia niliyowahi kueleza juu: wanalipa euro kwenye akaunti ya Gazprom nchini Urusi, Gazprom inabadilisha pesa kuwa rubel kwa matumizi yake.
Vivyo hivyo wanafanya nchi nyingi za Ulaya. Poland haikutaka kulipa kwa akaunti ya benki ya Kirusi, hivyo walikatwa. Maana Urusi hawana uhakika kupata pesa hiyokutokana na vikwazo.
Kwa jumla ni mchezo wa unafiki kiasi pande zote mbili:
Urusi inataka kuimarisha pesa yake, na hivyo benki kuu inahitaji watu / makampuni yanayonunua rubel (=inapanda). Hivyo walilazimisha makampuni yao ya gesi na mafuta kubadilisha $$ na €€ zote kwa rubel.
Kiasili walitaka makampuni ya magharibi wanunue rubel halafu kulipa, na hivyo kuwalazimisha kuvunja utaratibu wao wa vikwazo. Baadaye waliunda mbinu wa kupitia benki ya GAZPROM ndani ya Urusi ambako wao wa magharibi wanalipa $€.

Nchi za Magharibi waliamua kukubali njia hii maana inawapa nafasi ya kutowasiliana na benki kuu ya Urusi na bado kulipa €$, ilhali wanajua Gazprom itabadilishakuwa malipo kuwa rubel kwa niaba yao. Lakini wanaweza kujifariji hawagusi rubel. Pia hawategemei kucheza kwa thamani ya rubel kwa sababu wanalipa kufuatana na mikataba inayotaja bei kwa €$.
Kwa muda ambako wanahitaji bado gesi ya kirusi wanataka kuendelea.
(wizara ya uchumi wa Ujerumani walitangaza jana wamefaulu hadi sasa kupunguza asilimia ya gesi ya Urusi katika manunuzi yao kutoka 54% kuwa 35% lakini wanahitaji zaidi ya mwaka 1 kubadilisha yote wakitaka kuepukana na matatizo ya uchumi)
 
The European Union plans to significantly increase the purchase of Russian natural gas through countries that are ready to pay for the commodity in rubles, TASS news agency reported on Wednesday citing a government source in Brussels.

“An emergency meeting of the Gas Coordinating Group took place today in view of the situation in Poland and Bulgaria. A temporary decision was made to significantly increase gas purchases from Russia through the remaining channels, which will allow Poland and Bulgaria to purchase additional volumes of gas on the European market. The EU is also working with all partners to ensure an increase in gas supplies, primarily liquefied natural gas (LNG),” the source was cited as saying.

The move is aimed to compensate for the lack of supplies to Poland and Bulgaria after Russian energy giant Gazprom announced that it would no longer deliver gas to the two countries due to their refusal to adhere to the new ruble-based gas payment mechanism. Last month, Russia demanded that buyers from “unfriendly” countries open ruble accounts in a Russian bank for the transfer of payments. The measure covers only the countries that placed sanctions on Moscow over Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.

Rt.com
===
Kazi ipo
Tena sio kazi kidogo.
 
EU kama EU...

[emoji95]Russia has halted Gas kwa Poland na Bulgaria kwa kugomea kulipa Gas kwa Ruble...

[emoji95]EU nations wamezidisha manunuzi ya Gas kutoka Russia ili kupata ya kufidia Bulgaria na Poland baada ya kusitishiwa huduma na Russia...

[emoji95]Kisha Poland anadai anaweza ishi bila Natural Gas ya Russia kwa kununua ile ile Gas kutoka Germany tena kwa bei ya juu zaidi...

Sasa hapa anamkomesha nani na anamnufaisha nani [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] Viongozi wa EU wangese sana.

Kununua kwake Gas kutoka Germany ile ile inayotoka Russia haipunguzi Export volume ya Russia zaidi atawapa faida tu wa'Germany ambao watakula cha u'dalali kama faida kutoka kwenye upuuzi wao...
Wazungu wenye akili walikuwepo Karne ya 17 Hadi 19 TU.
Hawa wa Sasa wako sawa na sisi TU.
 
Mkuu, kwa bahati mbaya au nzuri nilipofungua tu, nikaona hiyo mistari hapo niliyokwoti kabla sijaenda kule juu. Nikasema ngoja nimalizane na hili kwanza.
Hakuna asiyekemea uvamizi wa nchi yoyote juu ya nyingine, hasa ukiwa ni uvamizi wa kuonea tu, au kwa maslahi ya pembeni zaidi yasiyohatarisha nchi inayoivamia nyingine
Lakini inabidi pia uangalie kwa makini sana tatizo lililopo hapa kati ya Urusi na washirika wa nchi iliyovamiwa.
Ni hivi: ni kama ile vita baridi ilikuwa bado haijaisha. Hawa jamaa wa magharibi ni kama walijikuta kama vile kuna kitu hawakukimalizia kabisa ili roho zao zitulie. Urusi yenye nguvu, hata kama imejiunga katika mfumo huo huo wa kidunia unaohimizwa na hawa walioshinda vita ya baridi, bado haiwapi utulivu juu ya Urusi yenye nguvu katika eneo hilo la Ulaya.

Bado hawa wakubwa wa Ulaya, wakiongozwa na mkuu wao, wanakuwa na wasiwasi na hili li-nchi kubwa la Urusi lenye nguvu, na ambalo pamoja na lenyewe kukubali kuendesha shughuli zake kama zinavyoendeshwa huko Magharibi, bado hawana utulivu wa moyo juu yake (kuhusu usalama wao, baadae, sijui?); lakini wanaliogopa sana li-nchi hili.

Zaidi ya hayo, huyu mkubwa kabisa aliyebaki kama kinara wa dunia, hata yeye hataki hadhi yake hiyo itiliwe mashaka. Isihojiwe na yeyote awaye. Akikataa jambo, kila mtu aingie mstarini. Ni hulka ya kibinaadam hiyo. Urusi yenye nguvu kila mara itakuwa upande wa pili. Unaikumbuka ilivyokuwa Syria? Au hukufuatilia sinema hiyo.

Nisiende mbali sana na jambo hili, lakini wewe jiulize. Vita Baridi wamekwishashinda. Mpinzani wao mkuu amekwishasambaratika. Kuna haja gani tena ya kwenda kumbanabana kwa kujitanua mpaka mlangoni kwake? Anawaomba 'guarantee' ya usalama wake, mnamzungusha kiujanjaujanja na uongo mwingi.

Jamaa kaweka mstari mwekundu chini, usiuvuke, wao wanadhani anatania!
Halafu ona sasa wanavyozidi kumchochea huyu kibaraka waliyemtoa kama sadaka. Watu wake wanaumizwa, wao wanazidi kuchochea kuni hao watu waumizwe zaidi kwa kutoa silaha na kumpa matumaini kibaraka yasiyokuwepo, kiasi kwamba hata mazungumzo ya kusitisha vita anakuwa hana msimamo wake thabiti wa kuwahurumia raia zake.

Mrusi anapigania usalama wake. Wanambanabana hadi wamtoe roho? Walijaribu kuihadaa Chrchinia, wakakwama, sasa wanatafuta njia za kuesndelea kulegeza mrusi kwa wasiwasi wao tu usiokuwa na msingi.

Ni hayo tu mkuu, ngoja nikasome huko juu.

Kwa hisani ya Kalamu1 nadhani vijana wa pro NATO na US kuna kitu mnaweza kujiongezea hapa.
Dah....An excellent piece of analysis...thanks .
Pengine Ndugu Nyamizi anapaswa kusoma andiko hili na wengine wa Aina yake...
 
The European Union plans to significantly increase the purchase of Russian natural gas through countries that are ready to pay for the commodity in rubles, TASS news agency reported on Wednesday citing a government source in Brussels.

“An emergency meeting of the Gas Coordinating Group took place today in view of the situation in Poland and Bulgaria. A temporary decision was made to significantly increase gas purchases from Russia through the remaining channels, which will allow Poland and Bulgaria to purchase additional volumes of gas on the European market. The EU is also working with all partners to ensure an increase in gas supplies, primarily liquefied natural gas (LNG),” the source was cited as saying.

The move is aimed to compensate for the lack of supplies to Poland and Bulgaria after Russian energy giant Gazprom announced that it would no longer deliver gas to the two countries due to their refusal to adhere to the new ruble-based gas payment mechanism. Last month, Russia demanded that buyers from “unfriendly” countries open ruble accounts in a Russian bank for the transfer of payments. The measure covers only the countries that placed sanctions on Moscow over Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.

Rt.com
===
Kazi ipo
Habari ni nusu kweli tu. Nchi za Ulaya hawalipi rubel. Badiliko pekee ni wanalipa €$ kwenye benki iliyopo Urusi, badala ya kwenye akaunti za benki katika EU. Wakitumia Benki ya GAZPROM wanalipa €$ na Gazprom inauza pesa ya kigeni kwa benki kuu kununua ruble. Ni mbinu unaoruhusu Urusi kutunza thamani ya ruble na kuruhusu nchi za EU kulipa kwa $€ bila kupita benki kuu iliyo chini ya vikwazo.
Poland ilikataa kutumia benki ya GAZPROM (sijui labda mkataba wao unataja benki fulani katika Poland?).
Urusi inapiga debe ya propaganda, na watu wa Eu vilevile.
Hali halisi ni njia ya panya yenye unafiki pande zote mbili.
 
Habari ni nusu kweli tu. Nchi za Ulaya hawalipi rubel. Badiliko pekee ni wanalipa €$ kwenye benki iliyopo Urusi, badala ya kwenye akaunti za benki katika EU. Wakitumia Benki ya GAZPROM wanalipa €$ na Gazprom inauza pesa ya kigeni kwa benki kuu kununua ruble. Ni mbinu unaoruhusu Urusi kutunza thamani ya ruble na kuruhusu nchi za EU kulipa kwa $€ bila kupita benki kuu iliyo chini ya vikwazo.
Poland ilikataa kutumia benki ya GAZPROM (sijui labda mkataba wao unataja benki fulani katika Poland?).
Urusi inapiga debe ya propaganda, na watu wa Eu vilevile.
Hali halisi ni njia ya panya yenye unafiki pande zote mbili.
Hebu elezea hii kwa mustakabali wa currency risk.
Nini russia anakwepa kwanini alipwe Kwenye benki yak
 
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