Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

[Mahesabu]

 

[Mahesabu]

 

[Lesedi2020]

Ndio sanctions anazo post kipanya hizi🤣🤣

 

[Bome-e]

Google chrome umeweka bandiko ambalo nalifahamu. Mijadala ya humu majibu yake yana asili. Hoja ilikuwa "White House" kupigwa na Biden kupata anachostahili. Ndiyo nikaposti kuonesha kwamba kama lengo ni Biden mbona alikuwa Kyiv?
Hilo somo linawafaa zaidi wanaotamani White house ipigwe na siyo kwangu mimi!!

Epuka kujibu kila comment hasa zikiwa porojo!Mwisho wa siku mtu anakutazama Kwa ulichojibu na si kila mara utapata fursa ya kuweka mambo sawa!Lakini pia sio kila aliyesoma pumba ulizojibu atapata fursa ya kusoma masahihisho uliyofanya!
So kuwa positive na objective muda wote,ukiona comment za kitoto pita pembeni au ukiamua kujibu basi fanya hivyo wisely!

 

[T14 Armata]

Kwasasa counteroffensive sio rahisi kwa Ukraine hata raisi wa Ukraine ameshakiri hilo.
Na Bakhihumt imechangia pakubwa sana kukwama kwa counteroffensive maana Ukraine sasa inarazimika kutumia wanajeshi na silaha nyingi ambazo zingetumika kwenye hiyo offensive kuilinda Bakhihumt.
Nadhani Ukraine itarazimika kuisogeza mbele lakini pia offensive ya tirpu hii haita kuwa rahisi hata kidogo maana na Urusi imejiandaa kuikabili vilivyo.

Counteroffensive isingeanza wakati Ukraine haijafundisha crew ya silaha mpya ilizopokea. Ina zana mpya tofauti ambazo haijawahi tumia na ni complex, lazima ifundishe watumiaji na mechanics na ianzishe sehemu za kufanya repairs. Hayo yote yanataka muda. Na wakati huo training ya wapiganaji wapya ilikuwa inaendelea.

Bakhmut imekuwa stopgap ya Urusi, kwa Ukraine ni bora kufanya defensive kuliko counteroffensive na la mwanzo ndio hutangulia la pili. Kadri Ukraine inavyozidi kuhold maeneo ndivyo inakuwa na maeneo machache ya kukomboa, na kwa kawaida anayevamia anatakiwa kuwa na ×3 ya uwezo wa anayelinda kama wanalingana nguvu. Hapo ni idadi ya combatants na zana, ukifanya assumption kwamba Russia ni superior kuliko Ukraine unapunguza makadirio lakini inabaki vilevile Urusi inabidi iwe na wanajeshi wengi Bakhmut kuliko Ukraine, hao wasingepigana hapo wangepigana kwingine.

Winter ilipoisha immediately huwezi anza movements kubwa ardhi bado ina matope na ile Chernozem soil tena ndio ipo Eastern uko kwenye vita inasumbua. Wakati Ukraine inajipanga na Russia inajipanga vilevile kama hapa imeleta vifaru vilivyotengenezwa kabla Josef Stalin hajafariki

 

[Nyonzo bin mvule]

Ni muda sasa sijaonekana humu. Nilisubiri winter iishe, counteroffensive ianze na battlefield iwe tense ila naona bado. Winter iliisha around 28th of February nikatarajia katikati mwezi March kutakuwa na mapigano makali ila ni kama mambo hayabadiliki sana. Russia imeweza kuchukua 70km2 ya Ukraine kwa mwezi March. Nachokiona vita itakuwa kali Ukraine wakianza counteroffensive maana walitulia kufanya training ya zana walizopokea. Russia imekomaa Bakhmut ambako pro Russians waliamini itachukuliwa mapema na pro Ukrainians baadhi waliamini Ukraine itafanya retreat lakini haikufanyika. Kuna siku niliandika nikapost ikafutika hapa narudia.

Russia imepoteza sana zana kwa mines pale Bakhmut na Vuhledar. Artillery strikes unaweza usizikimbie kirahisi mpaka uwe na fast response ya counterbattery radars, precision na range, Russia ana range ila precision sio sana na CB radars sio nyingi. Kwa upande wa mines, sio za kutisha kama una training, mbinu na vifaa. Russia alifanya clearance ya mines kule Syria kwa mafanikio makubwa ila Ukraine mambo sio rahisi. Kwanza mines zilizopo Ukraine ni advanced nitagusia chache, unakutana na kama PARM-22 directional anti tank mine za Ujerumani hizi wamepewa kidogo na zinapendeza pembeni mwa barabara sio eneo wazi kama Vuhledar na BakhmutView attachment 2573261

Ukraine inatumia Soviet made TM-62 hizi ni common kama unafuatilia landmines, inaweka ulinzi mkali sehemu fulani labda ni trench lines karibu na eneo muhimu au barabara kwingineko inapaacha inapanda mabomu ya ardhini.
Ili kupata breakthrough unatakiwa utafute weak points, zinapatikana kwenye minefields. Engineers wa Russia wanakuja kufanya clearance ya minefield wanaziondoa ardhini na kuziharibu, Ukraine inawaacha kutokana na intelligence inakuja kujua movement ya Russia inaanza lini, hapo inatumia US-supplied Remote Anti-Armor Mine system (RAAM) hizi zinafyatuliwa kwenye artillery shell ikifika eneo husika inapasuka na kuzisambaza. Zinakaa 9 kwenye shell moja. Warusi wanakuja wakijua wamefanya mine clearance wanakutana na hizi ambazo zinakuwa juu kama hivi vidude vilivyotapakaa hapaView attachment 2573266Ukiwa kwenye kifaru uoni wako ni hafifu lazima tu utazikanyaga, ili kuzikwepa inabidi washuke wafanye clearance kwa mikono au waite sappers. Wakishuka nje wanakuwa unprotected Ukraine inatumia artillery kuwashambulia. Changamoto hapo.

Ili kukwepa kadhia hii Urusi inatumia mine clearing vehicle kama BMR-3M yenye drums hizi zinabidi zilipue mines kutengeneza njia ila inafeli mara nyingiView attachment 2573267
Unakuta drum inaharibika, au mine haikuwa activated kutokana na sensor na fuse yake ilivyo hivyo mine inalipuka baadaeView attachment 2573269
Matokeo yake vifaru vya Urusi vinafuatana na vinaharibikaView attachment 2573270

Njia ya gharama zaidi ni kutumia UR-77 Meteorit inayotumia mine clearing line charge. Hii ina waya wa milipuko unaolipua eneo na kuharibu mabomu ya ardhini. Hizi sio nyingi na ni za kizamaniView attachment 2573271

Marekani hapa angekuwa na M1150 assault breacher a.k.a Shredded ambayo ina line charge na ploughView attachment 2573274 Wana experience na landmines za Iraq na Afghanistan.
Training na doctrines za Russia kwenye minefields (ni zilezile za Soviet Union ambazo Ukraine inazijua), mbinu za Ukraine, mines za kisasa zinazotolewa na NATO vimefanya Russia iwe na performance mbaya ikikutana na mines na itumie muda mwingi kupata gains.

Sawa mwalimu kashasha!!!

 

[Sigonella Island]

US Democracy A ‘Facade’ — Russian Security Chief

The US is not a democracy, nor does it seek to promote democracy in its relations with other nations, contrary to Washington’s claims, senior Russian security official Nikolay Patrushev has said. He made the remarks while commenting on the upcoming ‘Summit for Democracy’ hosted by the US government.

Patrushev, the Russian Security Council secretary, described the US economy as “dependent on corruption and lobbying connections going to the White House and Capitol Hill.”

Corporate interests have hijacked the levers of political power in the US and use the country’s international clout to pursue their agenda, he said in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper, to be published in full later today.

“Their democracy is a pretty facade for the political system, which serves to hide the neglect of the rights of ordinary Americans.”

Subscribe to RT

 

[wangatala]

Akiwa na miaka 45 Zelensky amemzidi busara Mzee wa miaka 70, Putin!!

Busara ipi?

 

[Labani og]

General shoigu kasema kazi iendelee[emoji1179][emoji1179][emoji1179][emoji1179][emoji1179][emoji1179]


Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu promised to increase the supply of ammunition to Russian forces in Ukraine during a visit to the headquarters of Moscow's troops fighting in the country on Saturday. Shoigu's visit came as Kyiv ordered 100 Rosomak multi-purpose armoured vehicles from Poland. Follow our live blog for all the latest developments on the war in Ukraine. All times are Paris time (GMT+2)

 

[Labani og]

Counteroffensive isingeanza wakati Ukraine haijafundisha crew ya silaha mpya ilizopokea. Ina zana mpya tofauti ambazo haijawahi tumia na ni complex, lazima ifundishe watumiaji na mechanics na ianzishe sehemu za kufanya repairs. Hayo yote yanataka muda. Na wakati huo training ya wapiganaji wapya ilikuwa inaendelea.

Bakhmut imekuwa stopgap ya Urusi, kwa Ukraine ni bora kufanya defensive kuliko counteroffensive na la mwanzo ndio hutangulia la pili. Kadri Ukraine inavyozidi kuhold maeneo ndivyo inakuwa na maeneo machache ya kukomboa, na kwa kawaida anayevamia anatakiwa kuwa na ×3 ya uwezo wa anayelinda kama wanalingana nguvu. Hapo ni idadi ya combatants na zana, ukifanya assumption kwamba Russia ni superior kuliko Ukraine unapunguza makadirio lakini inabaki vilevile Urusi inabidi iwe na wanajeshi wengi Bakhmut kuliko Ukraine, hao wasingepigana hapo wangepigana kwingine.

Winter ilipoisha immediately huwezi anza movements kubwa ardhi bado ina matope na ile Chernozem soil tena ndio ipo Eastern uko kwenye vita inasumbua. Wakati Ukraine inajipanga na Russia inajipanga vilevile kama hapa imeleta vifaru vilivyotengenezwa kabla Josef Stalin hajafarikiView attachment 2573787

Wenzako wanachapika .....alafu unafikiria wafanye counter offensive

SMO acha iendelee

 

[Nkuba25]

Safi sana.

Viongozi wa Africa wanatakiwa kuwa na msimamo wa namna hii.

 

[Econometrician]

 

[Econometrician]

why bakhmut is important?
The city was best known for its salt and gypsum mines and huge winery.

Russia anachukua maeneo potential ya kiuchimi,kiufupi unaiu Ukraine kiuchumi-muda sio mrefu Ukraine itakuwa kama Congo.

 

[wangatala]

Ni kweli, Urusi kwanza haiiti hii ni vita bali ni ka Operation ka kijeshi kadogo - kwa hiyo anaipelekaa mdogo mdogo hadi mataifa yote ya Magharibi pamoja na US na NATO yao yatepete afu ndiyo aimalize kwa mbwembwe.

Putin si wa mchezo ndugu.

.

 

[manning]

Magari ya EU na NATO yanachomwa kama mhogo

A column of Ukrainian army equipment after an artillery attacked by the Russian Armed Forces in the area of Vuhledar.

 

[Proved]

BRUSSELS — Finland won final approval on Thursday to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a major shift in the balance of power between the West and Russia that was set off by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Turkey’s Parliament, in a session that went deep into the night, cast the last vote needed for Finland’s entry into NATO, greatly enlarging the alliance’s border with Russia in a strategic defeat for its president, Vladimir V. Putin. In invading Ukraine last year, he made it clear that he was intent on blocking NATO’s eastward expansion.
======================

Hatimaye NATO imefika rasmi kwenye mpaka na Urusi yaani 'Finland'..

Tusubiri tuone kama 'demilitarization' itahamia Finland.

 

[jameshyela]

BRUSSELS — Finland won final approval on Thursday to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a major shift in the balance of power between the West and Russia that was set off by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Turkey’s Parliament, in a session that went deep into the night, cast the last vote needed for Finland’s entry into NATO, greatly enlarging the alliance’s border with Russia in a strategic defeat for its president, Vladimir V. Putin. In invading Ukraine last year, he made it clear that he was intent on blocking NATO’s eastward expansion.
======================

Hatimaye NATO imefika rasmi kwenye mpaka na Urusi yaani 'Finland'..

Tusubiri tuone kama 'demilitarization' itahamia Finland.

NATO hiyo inayopigwa Kama ngoma? Saizi hata ikisogea hakuna tatizo kumbe mdabwedo tu.

 

[jameshyela]

Rais wa zamani wa Brazil Dilma Rousseff Aongoza Benki ya #BRICS.... ameteuliwa kuwa rais wa Benki Mpya ya Maendeleo. Bangladesh, Misri, Falme za Kiarabu na Uruguay ni nchi wanachama wake wampya.

 

[Imole]

Rais wa zamani wa Brazil Dilma Rousseff Aongoza Benki ya #BRICS.... ameteuliwa kuwa rais wa Benki Mpya ya Maendeleo. Bangladesh, Misri, Falme za Kiarabu na Uruguay ni nchi wanachama wake wampya.View attachment 2573899

HApa ndo kilipo kifo Cha US na EU Kiuchumi, Siku zote Umoja ni Nguvu, BRICS Ndo itakua Global Economic ALLIANCE, Nchi zote Duniani out Of Us, EU and other Us Puppets watataka kujiunga, Na ndipo zitakapoibuka Nchi nyingi kiuchumi.

 

[Proved]

Russia-Ukraine war: Will there be a spring counteroffensive?​

Ukraine has hinted a counteroffensive could begin as early as April.


Published On 1 Apr 20231 Apr 2023
Europe’s biggest armed conflict since World War II is poised to enter a new phase in the coming weeks.

With no suggestion of a negotiated end to the 13 months of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, the Ukrainian defence minister said last week a spring counteroffensive could begin as soon as April.

Kyiv faces a key tactical question: How can the Ukrainian military dislodge Kremlin forces from land they are occupying? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is working hard to keep his troops, and the general public, motivated for a long fight.
Here’s a look at how the fighting has evolved and how the spring campaign might unfold:

How did the war get here?​

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, but its attacks fell short of some main targets and lost momentum by July. Ukrainian counteroffensives took back large areas from August through November.

Then the fighting got bogged down in attritional warfare during the bitter winter and into the muddy, early spring thaw.
Now, Kyiv can take advantage of improved weather to seize the battlefield initiative with new batches of Western weapons, including scores of tanks, and troops trained in the West.

But Russian forces are dug in deep, lying in wait behind minefields and along kilometres of trenches.

A Ukrainian police officer takes cover near a burning building hit in a Russian air strike in Avdiivka, Ukraine [File: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP]

How has Russia fared so far?​

The war has exposed embarrassing shortcomings in the Kremlin’s military prowess.
The battlefield setbacks include Russia’s failure to reach Kyiv in the early days of the invasion, its inability to hold some areas, and its failure to take the devastated eastern city of Bakhmut despite seven months of fighting.

Attempts to break the Ukrainian will to fight, such as relentlessly striking the country’s power grid, have failed, too.

Moscow’s intelligence services badly misjudged Ukraine’s resolve and the West’s response. The invasion also depleted Russian military resources, triggering difficulties with ammunition supplies, morale and troop numbers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, apparently concerned the war could erode public support for his government, has avoided an all-out push for victory through a mandatory mass mobilisation.

“The Russians have no end of problems,” said James Nixey, director of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, a think tank in London.

Realising he cannot win the war any time soon, Putin aims to hunker down and drag out the fighting in the hope Western support for Kyiv eventually frays, Nixey said.

Russia’s strategy is designed around “getting the West to crumble”, he said.

A serviceman salutes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as he is awarded a medal in Trostianets in the Sumy region of Ukraine [File: Efrem Lukatsky/AP]

What’s next for Ukrainians?​

The Ukrainian military starts the season with an influx of powerful weapons.

Germany said this week that it had delivered the 18 Leopard 2 tanks it promised to Ukraine. Poland, Canada and Norway have also handed over their pledged Leopard tanks. British Challenger tanks have arrived, too.

Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said he is hopeful Western partners will supply at least two battalions of the German-made Leopard 2s by April. He also expects six or seven battalions of Leopard 1 tanks, with ammunition, from a coalition of countries.

Also pledged are US Abrams tanks and French light tanks, along with Ukraine soldiers recently trained in their use.
The Western help has been vital in strengthening Ukraine’s dogged resistance and shaping the course of the war. Zelenskyy recognises without US help, his country has no chance to prevail.
The new supplies, including howitzers, anti-tank weapons and a million rounds of artillery ammunition, will add more muscle to the Ukraine military and give it a bigger punch.
“Sheer numbers of tanks can drive a deeper wedge into Russian holding positions,” Nixey said.

In their counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces will look to break through the land corridor between Russia and the annexed Crimean peninsula, moving from Zaporizhzhia towards Melitopol and the Azov sea, according to Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov.

If successful, the Ukrainians “will split the Russian troops into two halves and cut off supply lines to the units that are located further to the west, in the direction of Crimea”, Zhdanov said.

What might the end game be?​

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, reckons Ukraine will need to launch a series of counteroffensives, not just one, to get the upper hand.

The operations would have “the twin aims of persuading Putin to accept a negotiated compromise or of creating military realities sufficiently favourable to Ukraine that Kyiv and its Western allies can then effectively freeze the conflict on their own regardless of Putin’s decisions”, the institute said in an assessment published this week.
Nixey has no doubt each side will keep “tearing chunks out of each other” over the coming months in the hope of gaining an advantage at the negotiating table.

A make-or-break period may lie ahead: if Kyiv fails to make progress on the battlefield with its Western-supplied weapons, allies may become reluctant to send it more of the expensive hardware.

The stakes are high. Defeat for Ukraine would “have global ramifications, and there will be no such thing as European security as we [currently] understand it”, Nixey said.