Mkuu bado unagusa juu juu tu kuhusu chanzo cha hao Intarahamwe (FDRL) kufanya mauaji ya halaiki.
Chanzo na kirusi kikuu kwenye haya yote ni Paul Kagame!! Asingetungua ndege ile, mauaji ya halaiki yasingetokea, hao Intarahamwe wasingekuwepo Kongo I na M23 wasingezaliwa??
Njia pekee ya kuututua mgogoro huu kwa sasa ni kumuondoa Paul kagame madarakani, au kumpa kichapo cha mbwa mwizi au umzima mazima.
Huo ndio ukweli!!
Kagame ndio alitungua ile ndege ? Unajua kuna allegations, kuna facts, kuna what is believed na kuna different theories, sasa tuki base arguments zetu kwenye allegation moja hapo tutakuwa biased, na ili twende sawa ni bora tukaangalia watu is believed to have happened from reliable sources / investigations na hata kama hatukubaliani na matokeo basi tuseme hakuna conclusions na sio kuweka mawazo yetu kwamba ndio kilichotokea....
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Investigations
Launch site
Map of the airport and its surroundings
Two prominent investigations, which have been internationally recognized, have identified the Kanombe barracks as the likely source of the missile. In 2010, the "Mutsinzi Report" carried out by Rwandan officials in collaboration with British ballistics experts from the
Royal Military Academy, identified a small area, which included a portion of the airport, the Kanombe camp, and a small area near the presidential residence, as the launch site.
[39] In January 2012, a French report was made public with similar findings.
[40][41][42]
Despite these reports, some have continued to cast doubt on this conclusion. These uncertainties stem from immediate assessments of the situation. French Judge
Jean-Louis Bruguière had led an inquiry in 2004 which accused the RPF of shooting down the plane from Masaka Hill, but it was found to be based on the testimonies of witnesses who were not regarded as credible.
[43] A Belgian inquiry in 1994 concluded that the missile had been fired from Masaka Hill, but that "it would have been virtually impossible for a rebel soldier to have reached Masaka carrying missiles."
[44] The base was controlled by FAR forces, including the Presidential Guard
[26] and the para-commando battalion, and the AntiAircraft Battalion (LAA) were also based there.
[45] This report was widely reported to exonerate the RPF,
[41] although it did not actually do that, according to
Filip Reyntjens.
[46]
Responsibility
While initial suspicion fell upon the Hutu extremists who carried out the subsequent genocide, there have been several reports since 2000 stating that the attack was carried out by the RPF on the orders of
Paul Kagame, who went on to become president of Rwanda. All such evidence is heavily disputed and many academics, as well as the
United Nations, have refrained from issuing a definitive finding.
Mark Doyle, a
BBC News correspondent who reported from Kigali through the 1994 genocide, noted in 2006 that the identities of the assassins "could turn out to be one of the great mysteries of the late 20th century."
[47]
A now-declassified
US Department of State intelligence report from 7 April reports an unidentified source telling the US ambassador in Rwanda that "rogue Hutu elements of the military—possibly the elite presidential guard—were responsible for shooting down the plane."
[48] This conclusion was supported by other U.S. agencies, including the
Defense Intelligence Agency,
[49] which reported on 11 May that "It is believed that the plane crash [...] was actually an assassination conducted by Hutu military hardliners.".
[50] Philip Gourevitch, in his
1998 book on the genocide, framed the thinking of the time:
Although Habyarimana's assassins have never been positively identified, suspicion has focused on the extremists in his entourage—notably the semiretired Colonel Théoneste Bagosora, an intimate of
Madame Habyarimana, and a charter member of the
akazu and its death squads, who said in January 1993 that he was preparing an apocalypse.
[51]
The 1997 report of the
Belgian Senate stated that there was not enough information to determine specifics about the assassination.
[52] A 1998 report by the
National Assembly of France posited two probable explanations. One is that the attack was carried out by groups of Hutu extremists, distressed by the advancement of negotiations with the RPF, the political and military adversary of the current regime, while the other is that it was the responsibility of the RPF, frustrated at the lack of progress in the
Arusha Accords. Among the other
hypotheses that were examined is one that implicates the French military, although there is no clear motive for a French attack on the Rwandan government. The 1998 French report made no determination between the two dominant theories.
[20] A 2000 report by the
Organisation of African Unity does not attempt to determine responsibility.
[53]
A January 2000 article in the Canadian
National Post reported that
Louise Arbour, the chief prosecutor for the ICTR, had terminated an investigation into the shootdown after three Tutsi informants came forward in 1997 with detailed accusations against Paul Kagame and the RPF, claiming that they had been members of an "elite strike team" responsible for the downing.
[54] One of the three whistleblowers was Jean-Pierre Mugabe, who issued a declaration on the shootdown in April 2000.
[55][56] Following the
National Post's article, a three-page memorandum written by investigator Michael Hourigan was sent to the ICTR where defense attorneys had requested it.
[57][58][note 1] Hourigan later stated that investigation into the shootdown had been clearly within his mandate and that he was "astounded" when Arbour made an about-face and told him it was not.
[61][59] This sequence of events was confirmed by Hourigan's boss, Jim Lyons, a former FBI agent who headed the so-called National Investigative Team. Lyons believes Arbour was acting on orders to shut down the investigation.
[62] An investigation by
Luc Reydams concluded that there was no evidence of such orders. Reydams argued that the decision to shut down the investigation was "based on an assessment of the concrete conditions at the time" and that "any responsible Prosecutor would have concluded that pursuing the investigation would be futile and dangerous."
[63]
Arbour later stated that "It was my decision and my decision alone". According to Arbour, the OTP in Kigali was in a very difficult situation at the time:
We did not want to invest substantial resources only to have a judge refuse to confirm an indictment for lack of jurisdiction. I was not persuaded that the shooting down of the plane would in law constitute a war crime or a crime against humanity. It would be difficult to construe it as an act of genocide unless it was perpetrated by the leaders of the genocide to act as a trigger for the mass mobilization that followed. The situation was different fifteen years later. With all the high profile RPF defections and incriminating statements, it might have been possible to mount a case. [....] From a legal angle, it is not so much the shooting down of the plane that is of interest, but allegations of actions by the RPF that would have constituted
crimes against humanity during the period of time (1994) over which the tribunal had jurisdiction. During my time at ICTR, we always assumed that this work would have to be done, but that we would have to be very cautious about how to proceed, preferably by working from outside the country. I understand however that from a historical perspective, the shooting of the plane will continue to be a great focus of speculation if there is no closure.
[63]
In 1998, the French anti-terrorist magistrate
Jean-Louis Bruguière opened an investigation into the shootdown on behalf of the families of the French aircraft crew. On the basis of hundreds of interviews, Bruguière concluded that the assassination had been carried out on the orders of Paul Kagame, and issued arrest warrants against nine of Kagame's aides in 2006.
[64][21] In protest, Rwanda broke diplomatic relations with France. In November 2008 the German government implemented the first of these European warrants by arresting
Rose Kabuye, Kagame's chief of protocol, upon her arrival in
Frankfurt.
[65]
One of Bruguière's witnesses was
Abdul Ruzibiza, a former lieutenant in the RPF who claimed that he was part of a cell that carried out the assassination with shoulder-fired
SA-16 missiles.
[64] Days after the substance of Bruguière's report was leaked in 2004, Ruzibaza published his testimony in a press release, detailing his account and further accusing the RPF of starting the conflict, prolonging the genocide, carrying out widespread atrocities during the genocide and political repression.
[66] The former RPF officer published a book in 2005 with his account (
Rwanda. L’histoire secrete),
[67] and testified under oath before the ICTR in 2006.
[68] The scholar
René Lemarchand wrote about the book that "The careful marshalling of the evidence, the remarkably precise information concerning who did what, where, and when, the author's familiarity with the operational code of the RPF, leave few doubts in the reader's mind about Kagame's responsibility in triggering the event that led to the bloodshed."
[69] In November 2008 Ruzibiza suddenly claimed he had invented everything, but some months before his death in 2010, Ruzibiza explained that his retraction "is linked to my personal security and that of other witnesses".
[68] Yet Ruzubiza now changed his story by saying that he did not personally participate in the downing of the plane, but rather knew someone who did.
[70]
Linda Melvern wrote that Bruguière's evidence "was very sparse, and that some of it, concerning the alleged anti-aircraft missiles used to down the presidential jet, had already been rejected by a French Parliamentary enquiry."
[47] A 2007 article by
Colette Braeckman in
Le Monde Diplomatique strongly questions the reliability of Judge Bruguière's report and suggests the direct involvement of French military personnel acting for or with the Presidential Guard of the Rwanda governmental forces in the missile attack on the aircraft.
[71] In a 2007 interview with the BBC, Kagame said he would co-operate with an impartial inquiry "carried out by a judge who had nothing to do with Rwanda or France". The BBC concluded, "Whether any judge would want to take on such a task is quite another matter."
[72]
Paul Rusesabagina, a Rwandan of mixed Hutu and Tutsi origin whose life-saving efforts was the basis of the 2004 film
Hotel Rwanda, has supported the allegation that Kagame and the RPF were behind the plane downing, and wrote in November 2006 that it "defies logic" that the
UN Security Council had not ordered an investigation, as
it had done following the far less consequential assassination of
Rafic Hariri in 2005.
[73]
In February 2008, a 182-page indictment
[74] and international arrest warrants were issued against 40 current or former high-ranking Rwandan military officials of the
Rwandan Patriotic Army/
Rwandan Defence Forces by the
Spanish Investigative Judge
Fernando Andreu of the
Audiencia Nacional. They were charged with a number of serious crimes between 1990 and 2002, including the shootdown of Habyarimana's plane.
[75] Unlike the French judicial enquiry,
[76] Andreu's indictment was in part based on the principle of
universal jurisdiction.
[77]
Kagame also ordered the formation of
a commission of Rwandans that was "charged with assembling proof of the involvement of France in the genocide".
[78] The commission issued its report to Kagame in November 2007 and its head, Jean de Dieu Mucyo, stated that the commission would now "wait for President Kagame to declare whether the inquiry was valid".
[78]
In January 2010, the Rwandan government released the "Report of the Investigation into the Causes and Circumstances of and Responsibility for the Attack of 06/04/1994 Against The Falcon 50 Rwandan Presidential Aeroplane Registration Number 9XR-NN," known as the Mutsinzi Report. The multivolume report implicates proponents of Hutu Power in the attack and Philip Gourevitch states, "two months ago, on the day after Rwanda's admission to the
Commonwealth, France and Rwanda reestablished normal diplomatic relations. Before that happened, of course, the Rwandans had shared the about-to-be-released Mutsinzi report with the French. The normalization of relations amounts to France's acceptance of the report's conclusions."
[79][80]