Maswali magumu kuhusu mgogoro wa Ukraine dhidi ya Urusi ukilinganisha na ule wa Iran dhidi ya Marekani

Maswali magumu kuhusu mgogoro wa Ukraine dhidi ya Urusi ukilinganisha na ule wa Iran dhidi ya Marekani

MALCOM LUMUMBA

MALCOM LUMUMBA

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Matukio ya kuanzia mwaka 2022-2026 yamebadilisha sana akili za watu wengi duniani. Propaganda na ulaghai vimekuwa vikipwaya kila siku dhidi ya ukweli na uhalisia wa mambo. Kumekubwa na maswali mengi mazito ambayo hata wenye akili wanashindwa kuyatolea majawabu ya moja kwa moja:

Mosi, Israeli na Marekani moja kati ya mataifa yenye mifumo bora ya ulinzi wa anga hapa duniani, lakini wameshambuliwa vibaya sana na dola la Kiislamu la Iran bila kuwa na njia mbadala ya kujilinda dhidi ya mashambulizi hayo. Nini kimepelekea hadi Marekani na washirika wake kuzidiwa kijeshi na taifa moja tu ambalo wamelizidi kiuchumi, kisiasa, kidiplomasia, kijeshi na kiteknolojia ???

Pili, dola la Kiislamu la Iran limetumia miundombinu ya kijeshi ya Urusi na Uchina kufanya mashambulizi makubwa dhidi ya Marekani na Israel kwa mafanikio makubwa kupita kiasi na kusababisha Marekani na Israel washindwe kuendelea mbele. Unaamini kwamba Israeli na Marekani wataweza kuliangusha dola la kiislamu la Iran ???

Tatu, Urusi ana silaha bora za makombora na miondombinu ya kisasa ya kijeshi kuliko dola la kiislamu la Iran, lakini kwanini mpaka sasa ameshindwa kuimaliza Ukraine au kuua viongozi wake kama ambavyo Marekani na Israeli walifanya kwa Iran. Nini kinamzuia Urusi kutumia miundombinu hiyohiyo kuishambulia Ukraine ambayo haina mifumo bora ya ulinzi kuliko Ukraine ???

Nne, kama Marekani ameshindwa kabisa kuwalinda washirika wake wa muhimu kule Ghuba ya Uajemi, kama Saudi-Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait na Bahrain dhidi ya mashambulizi kutoka taifa dogo kama Iran, atawezaje kuwalinda washirika wake wa ukanda wa pasifiki kama Ufilipino, Korea Kaskazini, Japan na Taiwan dhidi ya taifa kubwa na lenye nguvu kama Uchina ???

Tano, kwanini migogoro ya kijeshi inaendelea Ukraine na Iran, sehemu zenye mafuta duniani lakini mfumuko wa bei wa mafuta haujatokea kama ambavyo tulitabiri hapo awali. Nini au nani kasababisha kusiwepo na mfumuko mkubwa wa mafuta na gesi ???

Nini kinaendelea hapa, kwanini dunia haiendi kama ambavyo taratibu zilitaka iende ?
 
Seawhale said:
Ghost fuel suppliers.
Click to expand...
Inawezekana.....

Lakini bado kuna matatizo makubwa yafuatayo:

1. Hawana International Crude-Benchmark kama WTI na BRENT, wamewezaje kuwianisha bei dunia nzima hadi kusiwe na mkanganyiko wowote ule ???

2. Hawa wanafidia nafasi zilizoachwa na mataifa makubwa kwa kiwango gani ???

3. Je, wanauza kwa bei ya juu au bei ya chini hadi kusiwe na mfumuko wa bei ???

4. Wanatumia njia gani kusafirisha ??? ​
 
Saudi Arabia currently exports approximately 6 million barrels per day of crude oil against 7 million barrels per day it used to export before the war between the US/Israel and Iran.

Most of this crude oil is shipped via the Saudi's port city of Yonbu located along the shores of the red sea.

So the shortfall of about 1 million barrels per day can in no way make any significant change to the price.

• Recent Volume:
Shipments rebounded to roughly 6 million barrels per day recently, recovering from earlier lows caused by regional disruptions.

• Route Adjustments:
The kingdom redirected some exports via the Omani coast and the Saudi Gazette following changes around the Strait of Hormuz.

• Production vs. Supply:
In recent months, Saudi crude production averaged around 6.2 million to 7.1 million barrels per day, with total supplies sometimes supplemented by stored inventories
 
Upungufu wa mafuta upo lakini sio Kwa kiwango cha kutisha, Meli zinapita kama kawaida lakini sio nyingi kama zamani, Mabeberu wameona wavuruge kidogo ili wapandishe kidogo Tu wapige pesa na watu watazoea Tu.

Iran anajijua kabisa kuwa Hana uwezo mkubwa wa kiteknolojia kushinda Israel & US, Alichofanya ni kutafuta udhaifu wao na kuwapiga Kwa kusaidiwa hasa kimiundombinu na Urusi, Hakuna mfumo perfect hata siku moja lazima Tu kutakuwa na loopholes.

Ukiangalia in reality Israel anaonekana anajua na anaweza kufikia vitu vingi ndani ya Iran kuliko Iran anavyojua ndani ya Israel, Licha ya udanganyifu wa Netanyahu lakini ukisikiliza baadhi ya hotuba zake utaona kabisa ni mtu anayejiamini Sana na hii inatokana na kupata taarifa za Moto Sana ndani ya Iran, Mfano Khamenei alipouawa, Netanyahu alisema Kwa kujiamini Sana kuwa Khamenei ana uwezekano mkubwa wa Kutokuwa Hai means deep kabisa kwenye level za juu kabisa za usalama za Iran wako Mossad ambao wanatoa taarifa field kabisa, yaani real time information before hata Iran wenyewe.

Kampeni ya regime change imekuwa ngumu Sana Kwani imeshindikana namna ya Ku organize watu waingie barabarani, waandame na kuleta vurugu za muda mrefu, wale Jamaa Basij forces Kwa kiasi Fulani wamejitahidi, IRGC wamezidi kubaki imara Kwa namna Fulani. Ili uangushe utawala lazima upate support ya wananchi wenyewe sasa kama wananchi wamenyoosha mikono nyie kina US mtafanya nini?,

Hebu jiulize sasa hizi Iran ukisema upigane nae hata hujui unapigana na Nani coz IRGC sio mtu mmoja ni mamilioni ya wanajeshi, Ayatollah hajulikana alipo, unakutana na Abasi Aragchi na Yule Ghalibaf, Masoud Pezekshan na hao Jamaa watatu huwezi kuwaua sababu ndio watu watakao wezesha majadiliano ukiwaua hao mambo ndio yanazidi kuwa mabaya,Yaani hata namna ya Kujadiliana nao inabidi uwe makini, wale Iran walijipanga Sana na kufanya Ugatuzi wa madaraka mapema kiasi ambacho Kuna layers mbalimbali zinazoweza kuendesha nchi Kwa namna yake hata Ayatollah akifa sasa hivi...

Ishu ya Urusi ni kwamba yeye anapiga na NATO kabisa, Urusi anapigana na nchi nyingi pale...
 
Ule mfumo wa decentralisation of power wa Iran ndiyo uliofanya Jamhuri ya kiislamu iendelee kudumu licha ya kuwepo kwa nyakati ngumu mfano assassination of top army Generals na Kiongozi mkuu wao lakini bado Iran aliweza kujibu kwa kuzishambulia nchi nyingi za Ghuba pamoja na Israel
Kwa kesi ya Urusi pale anapigana na nchi nyingi za NATO
 
Imeloa said:
Saudi Arabia currently exports approximately 6 million barrels per day of crude oil against 7 million barrels per day it used to export before the war between the US/Israel and Iran.

Most of this crude oil is shipped via the Saudi's port city of Yonbu located along the shores of the red sea.

So the shortfall of about 1 million barrels per day can in no way make any significant change to the price.

• Recent Volume:
Shipments rebounded to roughly 6 million barrels per day recently, recovering from earlier lows caused by regional disruptions.

• Route Adjustments:
The kingdom redirected some exports via the Omani coast and the Saudi Gazette following changes around the Strait of Hormuz.

• Production vs. Supply:
In recent months, Saudi crude production averaged around 6.2 million to 7.1 million barrels per day, with total supplies sometimes supplemented by stored inventories
Click to expand...
Houthi wakisukumwa na Iran watailetea Dunia mfumuko wa bei.

Saud Arabia kabanwa.
 
Mifumo ya Ulinzi ya Marekani inatumia makombora ambayo yana gharama ya Usd 1,000,000 kila yanapozuia Drone ya Shahed yenye thaman ya dola 20,000. So, Iran wamejua mbinu ni kudungua Drones nyingi iwezekanavyo, ili kuichosha Patriot au Iron dome. So, mifumo inachoka na hapo ndio Iran alipofanikiwa.

Pili, US kuimaliza kijeshi Iran inabidi aingize Jeshi Iran (nchi yenye milima kila Mahali na kambi za kijeshi za ardhini)—wenyewe wana msemo we do deserts and not mountains — pia inalazimika kutumia Nuclear. Hiyo ni vita ya dunia, si US au Israel aliye tayari kwa hili.

Tatu, kwanini Urusi inaishambulia Ukraine mdogo mdogo, nadhani Urusi anaitumia hii vita kuziweaken nchi za Ulaya kiuchumi, huku wakiendelea na mipango ya kujenga Multipolar world. Tukumbuke dunia iko kwenye transition ya kutoka Dola moja kuja madola mengi, na siku zote ili itokee Shift/balance of power, vita ndio nyenzo kuu.

Kuhusu, usalama wa nchi marafiki wa Marekani. Nchi za Ghuba (Saudi Arabia, UAE) zimeshaelewa kuwa hazina ulinzi wa 100% kutoka Marekani. Ndio maana zimeanza kurekebisha mahusiano yao na Iran (kwa msaada wa China) na kujiunga na makundi kama BRICS ili kuwa na usawa wa kidiplomasia badala ya kutegemea Marekani pekee.

All in all dunia haioperate tena katika utaratibu wa kawaida, kwa sababu huo utaratibu ulikuwa chini ya Unipolar world ya Marekani, kwa zaidi ya miaka 30 ambao unafikia ukomo. So, utaratibu haupo sababu tupo kwenye kipindi cha mpito kuelekea kwenye madola mengi.
 
Proved said:
Houthi wakisukumwa na Iran watailetea Dunia mfumuko wa bei.

Saud Arabia kabanwa.
Click to expand...
Magaidi wa Houthi sasa hivi wanapatiwa kipigo kibaya sana na sio muda mrefu wataangamizwa kabisa kwani Iran hana uwezo tena wa kuwasaidia hao magaidi wao.
 
MALCOM LUMUMBA said:
Inawezekana.....

Lakini bado kuna matatizo makubwa yafuatayo:

1. Hawana International Crude-Benchmark kama WTI na BRENT, wamewezaje kuwianisha bei dunia nzima hadi kusiwe na mkanganyiko wowote ule ???

2. Hawa wanafidia nafasi zilizoachwa na mataifa makubwa kwa kiwango gani ???

3. Je, wanauza kwa bei ya juu au bei ya chini hadi kusiwe na mfumuko wa bei ???

4. Wanatumia njia gani kusafirisha ??? ​
Click to expand...
Screenshot_20261010_100411_WhatsApp.jpg

Unawaona wahuni hao?.
 
Trump amesema wazi, kuwa kikwazo cha Ukraine-Russia war, ni Zelensky na amesema ni muda muafaka kwa uongozi wa Ukraine kubadilika na kuingia deal na Russia.
 
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