Tundu Lissu: Idadi ya wabunge wa kuchaguliwa iwiane na idadi ya raia wanaowakilisha

Tundu Lissu: Idadi ya wabunge wa kuchaguliwa iwiane na idadi ya raia wanaowakilisha

Tundu Lisu; No, You are Myopic

What you have tried to explain is totally incorrect and myopic. The focus of electing various representatives and providing infrastructure is to facilitate Provision of Services to the community.

In large urban areas, the infrastructure and governance resources are easily shared by a large number of people. Therefore, there is no need of having too many Reps.

You seem to have you mind stuck in the number of reps; and forgets the justification and cost benefit alaysis. .

You want to increase the number of MPs whenever the population increases. What is going to be the limit. Is it logical?

USA’s Constitution is over 270 years old. The population has increased more than 100 times; but their number of Representatives and Senators has remained 495 and 100 respectively.

In the same USA, due to their population sizes, California has 54 Electro Votes and Rhode Island has 2 Electro Votes. But both are represented by 2 Senators in the Senate.

Tundu Lisu, we know that you are idle over there. Use your time to study and research issues before you write. You are disheartening us to find you still providing childish postings; and therefore wasting our time.

Take care
Kimalkia kama cha binti yangu wa darasa la 3 A pale Isamilo!!
 
Kwa hili nampinga Lissu, uwakilishi ni zaidi ya idadi ya watu. Ukisema tu tuangalie idadi kuna jamii na maeneo yatakosa uwakilishi kabisa.
Zanzibar yote itawakilishwa na wabunge wanne tu; wawili Pemba na wawili Unguja. That simple.
 
Sasa nimeelewa 'Goli la Mkono' in Nape Nnauye voice.

Kuna mambo mengi ikiwemo mfumo usio na uwakilishi sawa baina ya majimbo. Bado kuna NEC kukata majina, DED kukataa kutoa fomu, DED kukimbia ofisi zao ili wasipokee fomu za wagombea wa upinzani, ......
Hili la DED kukata majina na kukimbia ofisi ni la kinyama sana.
 
..hakuna mgawanyo wa haki, wenye uwazi, na unaoeleweka, wa majimbo ya uchaguzi.

..Lissu ametolea mfano kasoro moja tu inayohusu idadi ya watu ktk mgawanyo wa majimbo, lakini haimaanishi kwamba hana hoja nyingine.

..Umetoa mfano mzuri kuhusu mkoa wa Morogoro kuwa ni mkubwa sana.

..Lissu pia amezungumzia Morogoro kutokutendewa haki ktk uwakilishi, ukiilinganisha na mkoa kama Lindi.
Ukute watu hawakusikiliza clips lakini wanakosoa heading tu.

Tanzania ina maajabu mengi mojawapo ni kuwa na idadi kubwa ya watu wenye akili hohehahe au zisizo na matumizi.
 


Makamu mwenyekiti wa CHADEMA Mh. Tundu Antipas Lissu akiangalia mgawanyo wa majimbo yenye watu wengi zaidi anagundua kuwa haiwakilishi na idadi inayostahili ya wabunge

Mfano mkoa wa Dar es Salaam ulitakiwa kuwa na wabunge wasiopungua 25. Lakini una wabunge wachache sana wakati ina idadi kubwa ya wapiga kura .

Mkoa wa Lindi yenye wabunge 9 huku idadi ya wapiga kura ni ndogo sana. Mkoa wa Tabora ina idadi ndogo ya wapiga kura lakini ina wabunge wa kuchaguliwa 12 huku mkoa wa Tanga wenye idadi ndogo pia ya watu ina wabunge 12. Mikoa hii iliyotajwa kama mfano wa uwiano usiolingana baina ya idadi ya wapiga kura na wingi wa wabunge pia ni maeneo yaliyo ngome ya CCM.


Na kwa hiyo mgawanyo wa majimbo umeiba uchaguzi kwa kutumia mifumo ya kikatiba na kitaasisi kwa maana Tume ya Uchaguzi ni ya rais na mwenye mamlaka ya kutengeneza mikoa ni rais na mteuzi wa viongozi wa Tume ya Uchaguzi ni rais pia. Orodha ya Jumla ya majimbo ya uchaguzi kwa kufuata na tovuti ya bunge la jamhuri ya Muungano wa Tanzania ni majimbo 273 : source : Parliament of Tanzania

Huko nchini Kenya Tume Huru ya Uchaguzi na Mipaka ya Majimbo ya Uchaguzi yaani IEBC ndiyo yenye mamlaka ya kutengeneza mipaka ya majimbo ktk Kenya yote inayotumia formula ya idadi ya watu ktk sehemu ndiyo itatoa mwangaza kutakuwepo wabunge wangapi. Sababu ni kuwa nchini Kenya demokrasia inaangazia kuwa wabunge wanawakilisha watu kwa kura na siyo eneo.

Tofauti na Tanzania ambapo ambapo Tume ya Taifa ya Uchaguzi NEC haina nguvu kikatiba kutengeneza majimbo kwa kufuatana na idadi ya wapiga kura.

Mfumo huo wa kuangalia eneo hata kama lina wapiga kura wachache na kuwapatia idadi kubwa ya wabunge huku mikoa kama Dar es Salaam, Mwanza yenye idadi kubwa ya wapiga kura inapewa wabunge wachache sana.

Sababu ni kuwa imeonekana maeneo yenye watu wengi ambao ni wapiga kura huwa wana tabia au mazoea ya kuchagua wapinzani hivyo kwa Tanzania wengi hao wanapewa wabunge wachache ili kudhibiti idadi ya wabunge wa upinzani wanaoweza kuchaguliwa . Parliament of Tanzania

Wawakilishi wa waangalizi wa chaguzi toka ndani na nje wameona mapungufu haya ya kuwa kuna maeneo yana wapiga kura wachache sana lakini ina wabunge wengi, huku kuna maeneo yenye wapiga kura wengi inawakilishwa na wabunge wachache sana na hii Indonesia kukosekana uwiano kati ya idadi ya wabunge na wapiga kura wao.

Source : Forbs Media

Marekani ndo wanatumia mfumo huu kila baada ya miaka 10 Wana draw upya congressional district
 
Nitarudi nitarudi
Miezi inakatika Rudi lisu uje upambane
 
Idadi ya watu, jiografia na mawasiliano ndio vigezo ndio. Mkoa wa Dar wenye wapigakura 3M+ ni mdogo kieneo kuliko wilaya ya Rufiji au Ulanga. Kusema tu idadi ya watu iamue kwakua mbunge hawakilishi milima au ng'ombe kwa mujibu wa Lissu si sawa.

Hayo mengine ya kubeba watu ni ishu nyingine maana tatizo la usimamizi na utekelezaji wa sheria ni kansa kwa nchi hii.
Mfano Zanzibar Ina watu million 1 Ina msururu wa wabunge 25 huoni kama ni matumizi mabovu ya rasilimal hoja yako Haina mashiko hata kidogo
 
Idadi ya watu, jiografia na mawasiliano ndio vigezo ndio. Mkoa wa Dar wenye wapigakura 3M+ ni mdogo kieneo kuliko wilaya ya Rufiji au Ulanga. Kusema tu idadi ya watu iamue kwakua mbunge hawakilishi milima au ng'ombe kwa mujibu wa Lissu si sawa.

Hayo mengine ya kubeba watu ni ishu nyingine maana tatizo la usimamizi na utekelezaji wa sheria ni kansa kwa nchi hii.
Vipi kuhusu Zanzibar ?
 
ANALYSIS

What Is Extreme Gerrymandering?​


Understanding how extreme partisan gerrymandering works.
March 22, 2019

What is extreme gerrymandering?

Gerrymandering describes the intentional manipulation of district boundaries to discriminate against a group of voters on the basis of their political views or race.

The term dates to 1812 when Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry signed into law a redistricting plan that included a district many thought looked like a salamander, leading opponents to nickname the district after him.

But while the term has become a synonym for redistricting abuses, it actually covers a wide variety of sins, not all of which are related.

For example, one form of gerrymandering involves drawing districts in order to protect incumbents. Likewise, sometimes districts are drawn to ensure a favored candidate can successfully run for office. These types of gerrymanders – which often occur through bipartisan collusion between political parties – can be harmful to democracy by pre-determining outcomes and depriving voters of a meaningful choice at the polls.

But the partisan gerrymandering cases currently in front of the Supreme Court – Rucho v. Common Cause, Rucho v. League of Women Voters of North Carolina, and Lamone v. Benisek involve another variant of political gerrymandering that is even more pernicious.

In the type of extreme partisan gerrymandering being challenged in North Carolina and Maryland, a political party uses its control of the process to artfully craft maps that lock in an outsized share of seats for an entire decade. The lasting and harmful effects of extreme partisan gerrymandering are especially apparent in traditionally purple states, like North Carolina. At a statewide level, North Carolina is a robust democracy with highly contested elections for everything from president to state auditor. But over the last decade, Republicans secured supermajorities in the state legislature, as well as a safe, durable 10–3 advantage in the congressional delegation.
Extreme partisan gerrymanders not only bake in results, but also result in maps that are deeply unrepresentative. John Adams famously wrote in 1788 that the House of Representatives – and by extension state legislatures – should be a “exact portrait” and “miniature” of the people as a whole. That doesn’t happen when district boundaries are manipulated in this way.

How does extreme gerrymandering work?

People often associate gerrymandering with the creation of super-safe districts that a party wins by overwhelmingly large margins. But, in fact, making districts too safe makes it hard to do an extreme gerrymander. Rather, the goal of a party seeking to use an extreme gerrymander to grab a disproportionate share of seats is to spread its supporters out among districts, letting it win a larger number of seats.
To illustrate how this works, consider a simplified hypothetical state with four districts and slightly more Democrats than Republicans. You could draw the districts in such a way that the parties split the seats

Parties%20Split%20the%20Seats%20Graphic.png


But, alternatively, you also could draw the districts in a way that Democrats end up with all four seats – essentially trading super-safe districts for more seats.
Democrats%20Win%20Majority%20of%20Seats.png

Of course, there is a danger for gerrymanderers. The trick is not to spread your voters out so much that districts become vulnerable to flipping to the other party in the normal give and take of electoral politics.
Fortunately for gerrymanderers – and unfortunately for the rest of us – this is becoming easier to do with “Big Data” and advancements in technology. And when gerrymanderers succeed, they create the worst of all worlds – a map that both is uncompetitive and skewed in favor of one party.

How can you tell when a map is an extreme gerrymander?

Although people often focus on individual districts when they talk about partisan gerrymandering, the extreme gerrymandering being challenged in North Carolina and Maryland also involves looking at the map as a whole to gauge whether a map results in an unfair allocation of seats between parties.
Mathematical and statistical measures can be powerful diagnostic tools that can help courts identify when a particular distribution of seats is statistically unlikely to be random – or at least when a map needs to be looked at more closely. Computer simulations that create hundreds and even thousands of random maps also can help point to situations where something is likely amiss.
But statistical bias is not the end of the inquiry.

Courts can also look to other types of evidence – including legislative materials, floor statements by lawmakers, and emails – to help determine whether or not maps have been drawn in a way that can’t be explained by neutral considerations.

Likewise, a state whose map is being challenged can present evidence to show that the bias in a map was due to things other than the intent to maximize partisan advantage.

Doesn’t the fact that Democrats are concentrated in cities explain why Republicans get more seats?

No. It’s true that big cities like New York and Los Angeles are heavily Democratic. And it’s true that residential patterns – or so-called clustering – may have some impact on the number of seats each party has. But there still are plenty of opportunities to gerrymander in areas outside big cities. In fact, Princeton professor Sam Wang shows how easily this is possible when there are significant pockets of both parties outside the big cities if there is a relatively even spread of partisans in those areas:
Fixed dots

Figure 2: Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD). 2017. “This population can give a 5–1 split…or 4–2 the opposite way…all w/nice boundaries. Need more than maps to solve.” Twitter, August 25, 2017, 1:53pm.

In fact, it’s notable that extreme gerrymanders occur not in deeply red or deeply blue states but in battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, that aren’t starkly clustered but that just happened to be controlled by a single party at the time of redistricting. To be sure, the cities in those states are fairly to heavily Democratic, but, as a precinct level map will show, these battleground states also have a lot of Democrats in suburbs, college towns, and rural areas. Given this comparatively even spread of Republicans and Democrats, it absolutely matters how you draw districts. Draw a district heading one direction, you end up with a Democratic or at least a competitive district. Draw it in the other direction, and you have two safe R seats.
A great real-world example is in Cumberland County, North Carolina, where the city of Fayetteville currently is split between two congressional districts.
Cumberland%202016.png

Figure 3: Supplemental Declaration of Jowei Chen, 3, League of Women Voters of North Carolina v. Rucho, No. 16-cv-01164 (M.D.N.C. July 11, 2018).
If Fayetteville had not been split in this way, it may have been possible to have a competitive district for Democrats in the area, in part, due to a nearby cluster of Democratic voters in Hoke and Robeson Counties.
Cumberland%202-276.png

Figure 4: Supplemental Declaration of Jowei Chen, 2, League of Women Voters of North Carolina v. Ruch, No.16-cv-01164 (M.D.N.C. July 11, 2018).
And in the Midwestern battleground states, like Wisconsin and Michigan, the geography is even more favorable for creating Democratic, or at least highly competitive, districts. (It would be different if every census block outside of the big cities were uniformly, say, 56% / 44% Republican over Democrat, but that isn’t the case.)
One final point: It’s telling that the problem of high partisan bias is closely correlated with single-party control of the redistricting process. Contrast that with states that where commissions, split control legislatures, and courts draw maps, which have much lower – and much less durable – levels of bias. California had high levels of bias in the 1990s when Democrats controlled drawing of the maps. It has negligible levels today.

Source : What Is Extreme Gerrymandering?
 
Kaunti 47 za nchini Kenya mgawanyo kijiografia

1659779555432.png




Mzozo katika mfumo bora ya ugavi wa fedha kwa kaunti zote 47 itaendelea hadi wiki ijayo baada ya Maseneta kushindwa kuafikiana kwa formula bora ya kugawa Sh316.5 bilioni kwa kaunti nchini.

Kukosekana kwa mfumo bora ya kugawa kaunti fedha za bajeti inamaanisha kuwa huenda kaunti zote nchini zikakabiliwa na changamoto tele katika uendehsaji wa huduma zake kando na uwezo wa kuwalipa wafanyakazi wake.

Njia hiyo ambayo upande fulani wa maseneta huona kama kufilisisha kaunti zao, inahitajika ili kuamilisha utekelezaji wa Muswada wa Ushuru wa mapato (Car) wa County uliopitishwa, 2020.

Muswada huo unapeana mgawanyo wa mapato yaliyoainishwa kitaifa kati ya viwango hivyo viwili vya serikali ile ya kaunti kutoka kwa kapu la hazina ya kitaifa.



Tangu muswada huu kuletwa bungeni, maseneta wameonekana kutofautiana vikali juu ya formula ambayo itaona kaunti 19 kutoka Kanda za Kaskazini, Pwani na Mashariki mwa Kenya zikipoteza takriban Sh bilioni 42 wakati kaunti zingine 28 zikiongezwa kitita chao

Source : Kaunti zafilisika kutokana na utata bungeni

Sub counties 295
Source : https://www.researchgate.net/figure...-295-sub-counties-numbered-The_fig1_343047955
1659781337162.png


The map of Kenya showing 47 counties (colored) and 295 sub-counties (numbered). The extents of major lakes and the Indian Ocean are shown in light blue. The names of the counties and sub-counties corresponding to the displayed numbers are presented in Additional file 1. Source: author generated map​

 
Kwa hiyo bado unataka tuendelee na waliyofanya wakoloni?

Hii akili ya matope inatoka wapi?

Ndiyo, nimeandika hivi maksuddi, kwa sababu ulichoandika hapo hukutumia akili hata kidogo.
Bado unaona vigezo vya "kabila/tamaduni" ni 'relevant' kwenye Tanzania ya leo?

Akili za vijana wa leo unabaki kushangaa walisoma wapi,walikula nini,wanafanya nini ?.

Mbunge ni mwakikishi wa WATU si mwakilishi wa Madaraja,si mwakilishi wa Miundombinu,si mwakilishi wa Wanyama.Mbunge ni mwakilishi wa WATU full stop.
 
UCHAGUZI TANZANIA 2020

Lissu awawekea pingamizi John Magufuli, Prof. Lipumba​

Mgombea urais kupitia chama cha upinzani cha CHADEMA nchini Tanzania anasema amemwekea pingamizi Rais John Magufuli anayetetea nafasi hiyo kupitia chama tawala, CCM, na Ibrahim Lipumba wa chama cha upinzani cha CUF.


Tansania Dar es Salaam | Politiker | Tundu Lissu

Kupitia akaunti yake Twitter, Tundu Lissu, aliandika kwamba hadi kufikia saa 10:05 alasiri alipokuwa akiondoka kwenye ofisi za Tume ya Taifa ya Uchaguzi (NEC) mjini Dodoma hakukuwa na pingamizi lolote lililowekwa dhidi yake, badala yake ni yeye aliyekuwa amewawekea pingamizi hilo wagombea urais wa CCM na CUF.

"Ninaondoka kwenye ofisi ya NEC baada ya kuwasilisha mapingamizi dhidi ya uteuzi wa John Pombe Magufuli wa CCM na Prof. Ibrahim Lipumba wa CUF kwa uvunjaji mkubwa wa sheria za uchaguzi.

Kufikia saa 10:05 majira ya hapa, hakukuwa na mapingamizi yoyote dhidi yangu. Pingamizi lolote la baada ya hapo litakuwa limepitwa na wakati," aliandika Lissu, ambaye kitaaluma ni mwanasheria.
Haikufahamika mara moja endapo NEC imeyafanyia kazi mapendekezo hayo na ikiwa Magufuli na Lipumba waliarifiwa kujibu kama ulivyo muongozo wa uchaguzi katika taifa hilo la Afrika Mashariki.

Hatua hii ya Lissu ilizuwa maswali mengi kwenye mitandao ya kijamii, ambapo wengine walisema ni njia ya kujilinda dhidi ya hatua kama hiyo kuchukuliwa kwake kama ambavyo ilikuwa ikihofiwa awali.

NEC yaonya dhidi ya wagombea wanaojitangazia ushindi
Katika hatua nyengine, Tume hiyo ya uchaguzi ya Tanzania iliwaonya vikali wagombea waliojitangaza kushinda nafasi zao kwa kupita bila kupingwa kwenye nafasi za ubunge na udiwani.
Tansania Dodoma | Wahlkampf | CCM Partei
Mgombea urais wa Tanzania kwa tiketi ya CCM, John Magufuli (kulia) na mgombea mwenza, Samia Suluhu Hassan.

Kauli ya NEC ilifuatia kusambaa kwa taarifa nyingi zilizodai kwamba zaidi ya wagombea 15 wa chama tawala, CCM, walikuwa wamepita bila kupingwa baada ya waliokuwa wapinzani wao kuondolewa kwenye kiyang’anyiro hicho na wasimamizi wa uchaguzi kwa sababu mbalimbali.

Akitoa onyo hilo, Mkurugenzi wa tume hiyo, Charles Mahera, alisema "mamlaka ya kutangaza nani ameshinda na yupi ameanguka iko mikononi mwa tume, na siyo chombo kingine."

Vyombo vya habari ambavyo vilitajwa kuwa mshirika muhimu wa uchaguzi mkuu navyo vilinyooshewa kidole cha onyo vikitakiwa kutokuwa na haraka ya kutangaza mambo ambayo hayana ridhaa na tume hiyo.

Wakati tume hiyo ikiwaweka mguu sawa waandishi wa habari pamoja na baadhi ya wagombea, vyama vinavyoshiriki uchaguzi huo ambavyo vilidai kutoridhishwa na hatua za awali kutokana na wagombea wao kuenguliwa, vilikuwa vikiendelea na mchakato wa kukata rufaa.

Vyama hivyo vilidai kwamba asilimia kubwa ya wagombea wake wa ubunge na udiwani waliondolewa kwenye kinyang’anyiro hicho kwa njia ya mizengwe kwa ajili ya kutoa nafasi kwa upande wa pili wa kisiasa.

Chama cha ACT Wazalendo ambao nacho pia kimesimamisha wagombea wake katika maeneo mbalimbali ya nchi, kiliishutumu hatua ya kunyimwa fursa ya kugombea kwa wateule wake huku kikitoa taarifa ya kulaani vikali mwenendo huo.

Meneja kampeni wa chama hicho, Emmanuel Semvula alisema tayari chama hicho kilishawasilisha hoja zake NEC.
Source : Ripoti ya George Njogopa/DW Dar es Salaam
 
02 October 2020

NEC yamsimamisha Lissu kufanya kampeni kwa siku 7​

Mgombea Urais kupitia Chadema Tundu Lissu amesema hakubaliani na maamuzi ya tume ya taifa ya uchaguzi ya kumsimamisha siku saba kufanya kampeni baada ya kukutwa na hatia ya kukiuka maadili ya uchaguzi.


Tansania Dar es Salaam | Politiker | Tundu Lissu
Mgombea wa Urais kupitia Chadema Tundu Lissu

Tundu Lisu amesema hayo alipozungumza na waandishi wa habari nyumbani kwake mjini Dar es salaam, ikiwa ni muda mfupi baada ya kusambaa kwa taarifa za kusimamishwa kwa mgombea huyo kufanya kampeni kwa siku saba baada ya kukutwa na hatia ya kukiuka maadili ya uchaguzi.

Mgombea huyo wa chama cha CHADEMA ambaye ameonenakana kufedheheshwa na uamuzi huo amesema hakuna malalamiko yoyote ambayo yamemfikia kuwa amekiuka maadili yalioanishwa na tume kwenye barua ya kumsimamisha, hivyo ameutafsiri uamuzi huo kuwa si wa haki kwa kuwa haukufata utaratibu wa sheria na hivyo ataendelea na kampeni za uchaguzi kama ilivyo kwenye ratiba ya kampeni za uchaguzi.

Lissu amesema: "Wakati kamati kuu tunasubiri tuweke msimamo wa chama, msimamo wangu binafsi ni kwamba kampeini zitaendelea siku ya Jumapili kama ambavyo imepnagwa kwenye ratiba iliyoratibiwa na tume ya uchaguzi. Kwa hio msimamo ndio huo.Mimi najiandaa kwa mikutano ya kampeni siku ya Jumapili".

Lissu amesema wamewasilisha malalamiko kwa NEC
Afrika Tansania Präsidentschaftswahlen 2020
Tanzania itaanda uchaguzi mkuu Oktoba 28 2020

Aidha Lissu amesema tayari wamewasilisha malalamiko kadhaa kwa tume ya taifa ya uchaguzi wakimtuhumu mgombea wa chama tawala CCM Rais John Pombe Magufuli kukiuka maadili ya uchaguzi lakini hakuna hatua yoyote iliyochukuliwa, hivyo ameitafsiri tume ya uchaguzi kuwa haipo huru katika kutekeleza majukumu yake.

Tume ya taifa ya uchaguzi kupitia mkurugenzi wake wa huduma za sheria Emnuel Kavishe ambaye ndio amesaini waraka wa kumsimamisha Lissu kufanya kampeni zake kwa siku saba, amesema mgombea huyo anayo nafasi ya kukata rufaa katika maamuzi hayo.

Awali leo hii kabla ya uamuzi wa kumsimamisha, jeshi la polisi kanda maalum ya Dar es slaam lilitengua barua yake ya kumuita kwa ajili ya mahojiano na kumruhusu kuendelea na shughuli zake za kampeni, kamanda wa polisi kanda maalum ya Dar es salaam Lazaro Mambosasa amewaambia wanahabari.

Wakati hayo yakiendelea msajili wa vyama vya siasa nchini Tanzania jaji Fransis Mutungi amefanya mkutano na viongozi wa vyama vya siasa na kuwasihi kufanya kampeni za kiistarabu na zinazoheshimu sheria ili kumaliza zoezi hilo la kidemokrasia kwa amani na utulivu.

Mwandishi: Hawa Bihoga DW Swahili


  • Tarehe 02.10.2020
 
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