Bila kufanya haya, tusahau suala la kuondokana na Mgao wa Umeme

Bila kufanya haya, tusahau suala la kuondokana na Mgao wa Umeme

Hii ni fedhea. Haiwezekani karne hii ya 21 tuna wasomi na viongozi tunaoamini wana exposure ila wanaishia kuhubiri umeme wa maji tu. Ni kielelezo kuwa tuna shida kwenye bongo zetu
Kwani gesi ilikwenda wapi
 
Bado uko nyuma kuhusu teknolojia ya solar (UV tech)

Imeboreshwa sana mkuu

Nchi za wenzetu hadi umeme wa solar umeingizwa kwenye grid ya taifa
Umenisoma kuanzia Mwanzo lakini au ? Nadhani wewe ndio upo nyuma kwenye haya mambo.... Suala la Umeme kuingizwa kwenye grid sio issue hapo inatumika smart meter ile dc ya solar inakuwa converted kwenye AC na kuwekwa kwenye Grid (ni jambo la kuweka sawa mfumo tu na ungenisoma tangia mwanzo hio ndio suggestion yangu)


Sasa wewe nikuulize baada ya huo umeme kuwekwa kwenye grid ya taifa inakuwaje ? Tuseme tuna mahitaji ya 10 MW kila wakati ambapo tuseme at peak times solar inatoa 16, mchana tutakuwa hatuna shida ila usiku bado tunahitaji kumi..., kwahio itabidi zile za ziada mchana (kuondoa wastage n.k.) zitunzwe sehemu ili ziweze kutumika usiku au kipindi hakuna jua......; Kwahio hapo utaona kwamba storage inahitajika na ndio mpaka leo issue kubwa ya hizi solar na upepo ni battery technology / efficiency ndio imekuwa kikwazo (hadi watu kufikiria kutumia mechanical batteries za kupandisha vitu vizito na kuvishusha)

Lakini kwa bahati sisi tunakitu ambacho tunaweza kukitumia kama battery ya huo umeme ukienda kwenye grid wa 16MW kumi zitumike alafu zile 6 za ziada ziweze kupump maji kwenye Bwawa la Nyerere kurudishwa juu ili usiku ziweze kuzalisha umeme (ofcourse plus wastage huenda ukatapa 3MW badala ya 6 ulizoweka, lakini ndio hivyo no free lunch na mpaka sasa the most Practical Largest Battery ni Hydro Electric Power Plant hakuna nyingine yoyote popote....

Hence we need to have energy mix and mix it according to our infrastructure na kwa suggestion yangu hakuna sababu ya kutumia ardhi nzuri ya kulimia chakula eti tuweke Solar..., Hapana tutumie mapaa ya watu kila sehemu kwa kufanya kila Mtanzania kuwa Mzalishaji wa Umeme
 
Huko wenzako walishapita ndio maana nikasema wewe bado uko nyuma kwenye UV tech
Don't believe the hype..... Wind / Solar still ni unreliable without the use of storage of some kind umeongelea kwenda direct kwenye grid nimekwambia kwenye grid kama usipotumika wote kwa wakati huo utahitaji storage, ukitumika wote bado utahitaji energy from other place during night..., sasa unaongelea UV tech ? Kwamba hio ndio ita-store surplus efficiently au itafanya solar ku-capture energy 24/7 ?

Narudia tena solar ni nzuri kwenye energy mix lakini efficient storage is still a bottleneck ndio maana kuna watu wanakesha kuangalia more efficient means za kuweza kuhifadhi hio Nishati, until then HEP Plants remain the most practical efficient Battery for Renewable energy especially in Tanzania
 
heko sana kiongozi ama hakika ada za wazazi wako katika shule na chuo kikuu hazijaenda bure kwani umezitendea haki kwa maelezo yako haya yenye madini makubwa na elimu toshelezi kwa sisi wasomaji wako
Shukrani sn mkuu
 
Don't believe the hype..... Wind / Solar still ni unreliable without the use of storage of some kind umeongelea kwenda direct kwenye grid nimekwambia kwenye grid kama usipotumika wote kwa wakati huo utahitaji storage, ukitumika wote bado utahitaji energy from other place during night..., sasa unaongelea UV tech ? Kwamba hio ndio ita-store surplus efficiently au itafanya solar ku-capture energy 24/7 ?

Narudia tena solar ni nzuri kwenye energy mix lakini efficient storage is still a bottleneck ndio maana kuna watu wanakesha kuangalia more efficient means za kuweza kuhifadhi hio Nishati, until then HEP Plants remain the most practical efficient Battery for Renewable energy especially in Tanzania
Storage facilities zipo fanya utafiti. Kama ukizungumzia Tanzania utachelewa mkuu
 
Storage facilities zipo fanya utafiti. Kama ukizungumzia Tanzania utachelewa mkuu
Storage facilities ni nini ?

Nishati haiwezi kutengenezwa wala kuharibiwa lakini inaweza kubadilishwa kutoka state moja kwenda nyingine kubadilishwa huko eitheir kunatoa nishati ambayo inaweza kutumika kufanyia kazi au nishati inanyonywa (kutunzwa ili ifanye kazi baadae) na kila kubadilika kunavyofanyika ufanisi unapungua; kwahio ukiangalia kwa jicho hilo utaona kwamba kwa nishati kutumika moja kwa moja ni ufanisi zaidi kuliko kuitunza..

Lakini sababu matumizi ya nishati hayapo constant inabidi wakati mwingine kutunza ili kutumia inapohitajika (sasa kama ni gas turbine unaweza kuzizima, maji ambayo yanatiririka hata usipoyatumia yataendelea kutiririka lakini unaweza kuamua wakati mahitaji ni machache ukatumia nishati ya ziada yale maji kuyatunza katika reservoir ya juu ili yatumike baadae (hio ni type ya mechnical battery)
Kwa ufupi aina za Storage ya Electricty ni kama ifuatavyo:-
  • Pumped hydroelectric. Electricity is used to pump water up to a reservoir. When water is released from the reservoir, it flows down through a turbine to generate electricity.
  • Compressed air. Electricity is used to compress air at up to 1,000 pounds per square inch and store it, often in underground caverns. When electricity demand is high, the pressurized air is released to generate electricity through an expansion turbine generator.
  • Flywheels. Electricity is used to accelerate a flywheel (a type of rotor) through which the energy is conserved as kinetic rotational energy. When the energy is needed, the spinning force of the flywheel is used to turn a generator. Some flywheels use magnetic bearings, operate in a vacuum to reduce drag, and can attain rotational speeds up to 60,000 revolutions per minute.
  • Batteries. Similar to common rechargeable batteries, very large batteries can store electricity until it is needed. These systems can use lithium ion, lead acid, lithium iron or other battery technologies.
  • Thermal energy storage. Electricity can be used to produce thermal energy, which can be stored until it is needed. For example, electricity can be used to produce chilled water or ice during times of low demand and later used for cooling during periods of peak electricity consumption.

Now katika hizo zote utaona kwamba the most practical ni Pumped Hydro sababu infrastructure ipo hizo battery zinafaa kwa small storages lakini sio Grid Worth of electricity

Kwa ufupi tu as of 2018 in USA storage percentage ya umeme wao ilikuwa kama ifuatavyo:-
1701117593944.png
 
Storage facilities ni nini ?

Nishati haiwezi kutengenezwa wala kuharibiwa lakini inaweza kubadilishwa kutoka state moja kwenda nyingine kubadilishwa huko eitheir kunatoa nishati ambayo inaweza kutumika kufanyia kazi au nishati inanyonywa (kutunzwa ili ifanye kazi baadae) na kila kubadilika kunavyofanyika ufanisi unapungua; kwahio ukiangalia kwa jicho hilo utaona kwamba kwa nishati kutumika moja kwa moja ni ufanisi zaidi kuliko kuitunza..

Lakini sababu matumizi ya nishati hayapo constant inabidi wakati mwingine kutunza ili kutumia inapohitajika (sasa kama ni gas turbine unaweza kuzizima, maji ambayo yanatiririka hata usipoyatumia yataendelea kutiririka lakini unaweza kuamua wakati mahitaji ni machache ukatumia nishati ya ziada yale maji kuyatunza katika reservoir ya juu ili yatumike baadae (hio ni type ya mechnical battery)
Kwa ufupi aina za Storage ya Electricty ni kama ifuatavyo:-
  • Pumped hydroelectric. Electricity is used to pump water up to a reservoir. When water is released from the reservoir, it flows down through a turbine to generate electricity.
  • Compressed air. Electricity is used to compress air at up to 1,000 pounds per square inch and store it, often in underground caverns. When electricity demand is high, the pressurized air is released to generate electricity through an expansion turbine generator.
  • Flywheels. Electricity is used to accelerate a flywheel (a type of rotor) through which the energy is conserved as kinetic rotational energy. When the energy is needed, the spinning force of the flywheel is used to turn a generator. Some flywheels use magnetic bearings, operate in a vacuum to reduce drag, and can attain rotational speeds up to 60,000 revolutions per minute.
  • Batteries. Similar to common rechargeable batteries, very large batteries can store electricity until it is needed. These systems can use lithium ion, lead acid, lithium iron or other battery technologies.
  • Thermal energy storage. Electricity can be used to produce thermal energy, which can be stored until it is needed. For example, electricity can be used to produce chilled water or ice during times of low demand and later used for cooling during periods of peak electricity consumption.

Now katika hizo zote utaona kwamba the most practical ni Pumped Hydro sababu infrastructure ipo hizo battery zinafaa kwa small storages lakini sio Grid Worth of electricity

Kwa ufupi tu as of 2018 in USA storage percentage ya umeme wao ilikuwa kama ifuatavyo:-
View attachment 2827052
Kwa hiyo hoja yako ni nini hapa?
 
Bado sijapata hoja yako vizuri ndugu ingawa unaonekana unayo.

Hiyo storage concern issue yake ni nini hasa? Umeme wa Solar si unazalishwa kila siku?

Hizo nchi za Uarabuni mbona hatusikii iyo unayosema storage concern?
Hoja yake nibkuwa efficiency ya solar energy ni less than 35% na wind ni less than 15%.
Utazalisha ila kikwazo kwa dunia bado ni storage ya battery bank...battery bank inachukua gharama kubwa lakini still bado efficiency ni ndogo.
Upande wangu mimi naona kwa Tanzania ni umasikini ndiyo inatuumiza, ila kama tungekuwa na maisha ya kati...wananchi wangetumia umeme wa jua na wind kwenye domestic use alafu TANESCO wangebaki na mzigo wao kwa kusumbuana na maviwanda huko make wameshaonesha kushindwa kuhudumia wananchi wa chini.
 
Kwa hiyo hoja yako ni nini hapa?
Aisee hivi mbona najirudia kama santuri mbovu ?

Moja nilianza mwanzo kabisa kusema kwamba Solar na Wind na renewables nyingine bottleneck ni storage; wewe ukasema ooh siku hizi nchi za watu wanaweka straight kwenye Grid; Nikakwambia kuweka kwenye Grid sio tatizo sababu hata ikienda huko isipotumika bado inahitaji storage..., Ukasema ooh sijui sifahamu tech ya UV..., Nikakwambia UV has nothing to do with storage hata efficiency ya panels ikiongezeka maradufu bado kwenye giza hakuna production..., ukasema storage facilities zipo..., ndio hapo nimerudi nilipoanzia Kwa kufanikisha solar vizuri a practical and only way ya kuweza kutunza huo umeme surplus wakati wa mchana for future use ni kutumia Hydro.....

Sasa labda nikuulize wewe uliyeniambia sielewi haya mambo hoja yako ni nini hasa.....
 
Hoja yake nibkuwa efficiency ya solar energy ni less than 35% na wind ni less than 15%.
Utazalisha ila kikwazo kwa dunia bado ni storage ya battery bank...battery bank inachukua gharama kubwa lakini still bado efficiency ni ndogo.
Upande wangu mimi naona kwa Tanzania ni umasikini ndiyo inatuumiza, ila kama tungekuwa na maisha ya kati...wananchi wangetumia umeme wa jua na wind kwenye domestic use alafu TANESCO wangebaki na mzigo wao kwa kusumbuana na maviwanda huko make wameshaonesha kushindwa kuhudumia wananchi wa chini.
Actually the way forward ni kwa wananchi kuweka panels kwenye mapaa yao (rather than kutumia ardhi ya mambo mengine kuweka panels) na kwa kuwa na smart meters kuweza kuwauzia Tanesco Umeme huo kwenye Grid (na wao kupata credit) na hio Surplus Tanesco ina uwezo wa kutumia kitu kama Bwawa kama a Battery storage.... Actually in a nutshell that's what I see as a best case scenario (kutumia vyanzo vyote vilivyopo ila kwa kusaidiwa na Bwawa)
 
Kuna watu wanaamini kabisa kuwa Bwawa la Umeme la Rufiji likianza kazi basi suala la Mgao wa umeme litakuwa historia kwenye nchi hii.

Kwa namna ninavyosoma taarifa mbalimbali za kiutafiti zinazohusu masuala ya Mazingira napenda kuwaambia hawa watu wakiwemo viongozi wetu kuwa inawezekana wakawa sahihi kwa muda fulani ila kwa muda mrefu hawatakuwa sahihi

Kwa hali ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa ilivyo inasemwa kuwa huko mbeleni suala la ukame litakuwa jambo la kawaida sana duniani na inawezekana hata uzalishaji wa chakula ukapungua sana.

Kwa haya ni sahihi kusema kuwa hata Bwawa la Nyerere inawezekana lisiwe efficient kwa miaka mingi ijayo kutokana na changamoto hizi.

Kwa upande mwingine kuna vyanzo ya umeme vinavyoonekana kuwa vya uhakika zaidi katika miaka mingi ijayo. Vyanzo hivyo ni pamoja na Nyuklia na Jua ambavyo kwa bahati nzuri sana vyote kwa hapa Tanzania tunavyo.

Ushauri wangu.
1. Kuna teknolojia mpya salama zaidi ya kutengeneza plant ndogo za nyuklia. Serikali ialike wataalam kutoka nchi za Ujerumani au Scandinavia wajenge hata plant moja ya namna hiyo kwenye moja ya mikoa yenye bahari/ maziwa hapa Tanzania. Tukipata megawat hata 10,000 au 20,000 sio mbaya. Uzuri madini ya uranium tunayo kinachotakiwa ni teknolojia tu.

2. Kuna mikoa/ sehemu hapa nchini ambayo Jua linawaka kwa uhakika kwa miezi si chini ya 10 au 11. Serikali iwekeze haraka uzalishaji wa Umeme Jua kwenye mikoa hii hata megawat 3000 - 5000

Inawezekana watu wakasema tuna gesi ila kiuhalisia gesi tuliyonayo ni ya matumizi ya miaka 30- 50 kama sikosei hivyo inawezekana huko mbeleni nayo ikaisha.


Naomba kuwasilisha.
Huu ulioandika ni ujinga ambao unafaunyia 'rationalization' ya kijinga ukiamini na wewe un akili zaidi ya wengine!!!

Hapo ilipo Israel ilikuta nchi ni yenye jangwa mpaka mto jordani ulokuwa unatiririsha maji kwenye bahari nyekendu na Judea ulianza kukauka lakini Waisrael wamebadilisha jangwa kuwa kijani kwa kutumia umande, maji ya bahari yanaondolewa chumvi (desalination) na mchankato huuo ambao unatiririsha maji kupitia mifereji kwa kasi ambapo mitambo inawekwa kwenye mfumo unazalisha umeme pia.

Wewe unaota uharibifu wa mazingira yanahusikaje ujazaji maji kwenye bwawa kupitia mito mitatu mikuu inayomwaga maji kwenye mto Rufiji ambayo ni 1. Kilombero ukitokea maeneo oevu ya Ulanga na Malinyi; 2. Ruaha mkuu kutokea maneo oevu ya Mbarali Mbeya kupitia Iringa na 3. Luwegu kutokea Njombe.

Swali dogo kwako wewe mtoa taarifa uliyefilisika je kuna upungufu wa mvua maeneo hayo ambako hiyo mito inatokea kiasi ambacho hakuna maji yanayotiririshwa kuingia mto Rufiji hadi mtu mmoja wa TANESCO anathubutu kudanganya wananchi kwamba pamoja na mvua inayoendelea kunyesha eti hakuna maji yanayoingia kwenda mto Rufiji na kuingia bwawa la Nyerere huko Rufiji!!!

Kama umetumwa na huyo mwizi aliyekuwepo kwenye wizara kujaribu kumsafisha kwa mtindo huo umekwama.

Eneo la Selous lina misitu ya asili na hakuna shughuli zozote za kibinadamu zaidi ya utalii, uvuvi kwenye mto na ujenzi wa bwawa upande wa mashariki kijiji cha mwisho kabla hujaingia ndani ya hifadhi ya Selous kiko umbali wa Kilomita 115 (Mloka) kupitia geti la Mtemere; kwa upande wa magharibi kijiji cha msho kabla hujaingia kwenye hifadhi mpaka kwenye bwawa la Nyerere kiko umbali wa kilomita 75 (Kisaki) na upande wa kasikazini ni mbuga ya Nyerere kilomita 65 kutoka kwenye bwawa shughuli zao ni utalii sasa hapo mazingira kuzuia maji kuingia kwenye mto yametokea wapi?
This battle opposing the construction of the hydropower generation at Rufiji should stop with you and your allies.
 
Aisee hivi mbona najirudia kama santuri mbovu ?

Moja nilianza mwanzo kabisa kusema kwamba Solar na Wind na renewables nyingine bottleneck ni storage; wewe ukasema ooh siku hizi nchi za watu wanaweka straight kwenye Grid; Nikakwambia kuweka kwenye Grid sio tatizo sababu hata ikienda huko isipotumika bado inahitaji storage..., Ukasema ooh sijui sifahamu tech ya UV..., Nikakwambia UV has nothing to do with storage hata efficiency ya panels ikiongezeka maradufu bado kwenye giza hakuna production..., ukasema storage facilities zipo..., ndio hapo nimerudi nilipoanzia Kwa kufanikisha solar vizuri a practical and only way ya kuweza kutunza huo umeme surplus wakati wa mchana for future use ni kutumia Hydro.....

Sasa labda nikuulize wewe uliyeniambia sielewi haya mambo hoja yako ni nini hasa.....
Kwa future use sio lazima iwe pumped storage hydropower pekee mkuu kuna compressed air na flywheel storage as well

Hapo nilimaanisha PV (Photovoltaic)
tech sio UV
 
.battery bank inachukua gharama kubwa lakini still bado efficiency ni ndogo.
20231128_004312.jpg


The Chinese-built world's largest single-site solar power plant Al Dhafra PV2 has fully completed construction in the #UAE, covering an area of 20 square kilometers with an installed capacity of 2.1 GW. The project has contributed 3.6 bln kWh of green energy to the country as of mid-Nov 2023.
 
Kwa future use sio lazima iwe pumped storage hydropower pekee mkuu kuna compressed air na flywheel storage as well

Hapo nilimaanisha PV (Photovoltaic)
tech sio UV
Compressed air kwa facility zipi ambazo tunazo sasa na kwa efficiency ipi ? Flywheel unajua kwamba inafaa kwa storage na matumizi ya muda mfupi ? Unajua storage ya kitu under high pressure ni more risky kuliko kitu kama maji ambayo ni kuyaweka tu hapo juu kusubiri yashuke baadae ?

Ndio maana nikasema a practical way depending on what we have at our disposal ni Pumped Hydro...
 
View attachment 2827075

The Chinese-built world's largest single-site solar power plant Al Dhafra PV2 has fully completed construction in the #UAE, covering an area of 20 square kilometers with an installed capacity of 2.1 GW. The project has contributed 3.6 bln kWh of green energy to the country as of mid-Nov 2023.
Hizo projects ziangalie with a pinch of salt hapo kuna mambo yafuatayo:-
  • They are heavily subsidized kutokana na kwamba being green is a politically correct thing to be.., wala hakuna mtu anayebisha energy inayotoka kwenye jua kwamba ni kubwa sana (after all all most energy in the world unaweza uka-argue inatokea kwenye jua through photosynthesis) na kama kungekuwa kuna uwezo / efficiency ya storage basi jangwani peke yake kungeweza kugawa umeme dunia nzima.
  • Pili hilo eneo ni kubwa sana shukuru tu kwamba lipo Jangwani (eneo ambalo huwezi kulitumia kwa kuzalisha jambo jingine) now just imagine eneo hilo unatumia huku kwetu wakati huenda ungeweza kupanda mazao fulani au miti kuota; now ndio hapo juu nimeshauri badala ya kuwa na solar farm na kupoteza ardhi solar panels ziwepo kwenye nyumba za watu kila mtu achangie real estate kidogo kidogo
  • Project kama hii sio ya kwanza nyingi zilishafanyika (ingawa hii ni kubwa zaidi) lakini zimekutana na bottlenecks za hapa na pale..., na kwa kubashiri nadhani future haitakuwa na farms kama hizi zinazochukua eneo kubwa bali huenda hata vioo na kuta za kawaida zitakuwa zinaproduce umeme kidogo kidogo hence kuongeza surface area katika eneo kubwa zaidi kuliko hiki kinachoendelea huko
 
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