Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

[Mbitiyapi01]

Tumeanza kutekenya Transnitria (kama Luhansk na Donesk Hawa nao ni Russian Natives) ... maldova wameomba msaada Romania... Hii op itabadilisha sana siasa za ulimwengu....

Putin: "Plans, including a military attack on Crimea and Donbass, were spelled out in the doctrinal Ukrainian documents of today, and the Ukrainian people [was] destined for the fate of consumables."View attachment 2202510

 

[bibingi]

Kivipi, EU ndio ina wanajeshi Ukrein?..

Kama EU haina wanajeshi ukrein ok nani anapeleka sikaha huko ukrain

 

[Galip Veryl]

The Polish prime minister said that Warsaw would ask the European Commission to impose duties on gas and oil imports from Russia in the amount of 25-35%.

View attachment 2202542

Katika viongozi waliopagawa kwenye hili sakata ni huyu wa Poland, sasa hizo cost anazotaka ziongezwe zitakua reflected wapi kama sio kwa mtumiaji wa mwisho? Tena Ambao ni Raia wake mwenyewe.... sio kwa Russia [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

Hiyo suggestion angeitoa endapo Russia ndio angekuwa anafanya Imports kutoka kwao ingeleta mashiko...

 

[myoyambendi]

Kama EU haina wanajeshi ukrein ok nani anapeleka sikaha huko ukrain

Silaha ni bidhaa kama mafuta au magari...unaweza kununua au kupewa..

 

[Mbitiyapi01]

Kaka kama huna habari jinsi gani gesi inavyotumiwa na jinsi gani soko la gesi linavyofanya kazi, labda utafakari kidogo kabla ya kutukana??
Ndiyo, Ujerumani wanazo ghala kubwa za gesi. Ona chini maelezo (yenye namba za siku kabla ya vita):
Soma: "The total capacity for injection and withdrawal from German gas storage facilities is around 23 billion cubic meters of gas. Germany ranks fourth among the world’s largest storage countries. Only in the US, Ukraine and Russia there are even greater capacities." Chanzo: Gas Storage Capacities - INES Initiative Energien Speichern
Soma "About half of German imports of gas.., and about one third of its oil imports originate from Russia." Chanzo: What if Germany is cut off from Russian oil and gas?
Kwa hiyo wanahitaji kupata mbadala kwa nusu ya mahitaji yao ya gesi (sehemu inayotoka Urusi).
Matumizi ya gesi ya Ujerumani mwaka 2021 yalikuwa mita za ujazo bilioni 87; nusu yake (=gesi kutoka Urusi) ni takriban bilioni 45; hivyo serikali yao inaona kwamba gesi kutoka nchi nyingine pamoja na akiba inaleta kiasi cha kutosha ili kudumu mwaka 1.
Kuhusu mafuta wametanagza kwamba wameshapunguza matumizi ya mafuta ya Urusi kutoka asilimia 34 hadi asilimia 12.

Umeongea MAKUSANYO tu ya gesi... Matumizi ya ujerumani ni kiasi Gani Kwa gesi hiyo wanayoagiza!!? Wanabaki na reserve kiasi Gani !!? Storage cost hujaicount katika maelezo yako !!? Gesi sio renewable Kwa importers hata exporters unajua gharama yake!!? Nani anaingia gharama Zaidi!!? Mbona mnajitoa ufahamu Kwa vitu vidogo... Katika (international trade na international economics) Kuna vitu vinaitwa Comperative advantages na Absolute Advantages... Mrusi yupo kwenye Comperative ... Hana upungufu wa hivyo wa mahitaji..hivi shule mnaenda kuuza barafu au kusoma....

 

[bibingi]

Ukraine tumerejea humu

Mtarudi mlipotoka ....

 

[Mbitiyapi01]

Mtoto wa Nzi nimerudi... Wamenifanyia fitina akaunti yangu.....na wakiripoti hii nafungua ingine..(mbitiyapi-fisi mweupe)

Tumeanza kutekenya Transnitria (kama Luhansk na Donesk Hawa nao ni Russian Natives) ... maldova wameomba msaada Romania... Hii op itabadilisha sana siasa za ulimwengu....

 

[Bwana Utam]

Jana kilifanyika kikao cha Nato na EU kujadili mzozo wa ukraine, kikao kilikuepo pale Germany. Mwenye nyepesi nyepesi atutupie kdg tujue maazimio yalikua nini.

Pia kulikua na kikao cha katibu mkuu wa UN ndugu Antonio Gutteres na Putin, ndugu Guterres amemuomba Putin kuruhusu kutoka kwa raia waliokwama kiwandani. Hata hivyo putin amekubali kwa sharti ya wanajeshi wao, wavae magwanda ya UN kuendesha uokozi.

Kwa hali ilivyo inaonekana ndani ya kiwanda kuna mengi tusiyoyajua, maana wakubwa wanaumizwa sana na watu waliokwama ndani ya kiwanda, je ni kweli kuna wanajeshi wa kigeni ndani ya shimo?

Ndani ya miezi miwili urusi itafungua balozi za luhansi na Donetsk ndani ya moscow, hivyo kutambulika rasmi kwa nchi hizo. Inavyoonekana russia hataishia hapo, ataendeleza operation hyo mpaka kiev huko mbeleni

Mpaka sasa ukiachana na ubishi maandazi, hakuna kitu kinachomzuia Russia, vikao vya Nato ni vingi kuliko msaada. Na kuelekea kwenye msimu wa baridi mauzo ya gesi yamepanda maradufu, na nchi kubwa kama US, Germany nk zinanunua mafuta kwa ruble [emoji26][emoji26]. Huu ni ushindi mkubwa sana tena sana kwa urusi.

Nchi zilizokaza shingo kama poland na Bulgaria zimepigwa pin na kukatiwa gesi, sasa tutaona itavyokua.

Ila PUT IN kawajibu kibabe sana
Ndio wavae wao kofia za UN waende wakawatoe maana hata wao RUSSIA niwanachama wa kudumu wahio inayoitwa UN

 

[bibingi]

Mtoto wa Nzi nimerudi... Wamenifanyia fitina akaunti yangu.....na wakiripoti hii nafungua ingine..(mbitiyapi-fisi mweupe)

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji1787][emoji1787]
MUTOTO YA NZI Haipendagi ujinga kabisa mkuu ........haya karibu kuna kenge pro NATO zimeamka huko zilikotoka zinaleta fujo humu kazi kwako mkuu

 

[bibingi]

Umeongea MAKUSANYO tu ya gesi... Matumizi ya ujerumani ni kiasi Gani Kwa gesi hiyo wanayoagiza!!? Wanabaki na reserve kiasi Gani !!? Storage cost hujaicount katika maelezo yako !!? Gesi sio renewable Kwa importers hata exporters unajua gharama yake!!? Nani anaingia gharama Zaidi!!? Mbona mnajitoa ufahamu Kwa vitu vidogo... Katika (international trade na international economics) Kuna vitu vinaitwa Comperative advantages na Absolute Advantages... Mrusi yupo kwenye Comperative ... Hana upungufu wa hivyo wa mahitaji..hivi shule mnaenda kuuza barafu au kusoma....

Hivi bado unahangaika na huyo jamaa utakesha hapo ...

 

[Edson]

Bwana Tafakari yetu ukisema Putin aliingia KGB akiwa high school natumai unajua kwamba unazungumzia mtoto wa chini ya miaka 18.
Na Propaganda yenu inadai kwamba Putin alikaa Tanzania miaka 4 kuanzia 1973-1977, sasa katika hio picha unaambiwa kuna Emerson Mnangagwa ambaye kipindi hicho alikua jela.
Na Katika miaka hiyo, rekodi za picha zinaonyesha Putin alikua mwanafunzi wa sheria katika chuo cha Leningrad. Sasa inawezekanaje tena akawa yupo bara lingine na huku anasoma.
Tena huo mwaka ulioutaja 1975, Putin yuko busy kuandika thesis yake ya "The Most Favored Nation Trading Principle in International Law" kabla haja graduate

Nikiwa kidato Cha pili seminari nilichukuliwa kwenda jeshini miez sita ..baadae nikaenda zenji ..then nikarud shule ile kidato Cha tatu na nikiwa na wastan was 75 kwenye mtihan was form two ambao hata sikuufanya...Kama haya yaliwezekana Tanzania Hapa kwa Mimi ..Huko kwa Putin yanashidikanaje!?....dunia sio Kama unavyoiona...usikariri ..karibu tell aviv

 

[bibingi]

Russia will respond swiftly to any ‘interference’ in Ukraine: Putin​

Putin has warned that any countries attempting to “interfere” in Ukraine will be faced with a swift response from Moscow.

Addressing lawmakers in St Petersburg, Putin said all decisions on how the Kremlin would react in the event of a threat to Russia’s “strategic security” have already been taken.

Putin anachanganyikiwa, si anaharibu silaha huyu mzee au

Huwezi kuona hasara ya kitu ambacho unakitengeneza wewe mwenyewe tofauti na mnunuzi ....kwanza wana rasilimali za kutosha kuunda hayo masilaha so ........tofautyi na huko ulaya gesi wanategemea kwa mrusi ......ingekuwa wanachimba huko huko kwao tusingekunywa maji humu au wangemuonea sana mrusi bahati nzuri wamemkuta mwamba yuko FULL FULL[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] ........hategemei mtu kama wao wanavomtegemea

 

[ankai]

Nikiwa kidato Cha pili seminari nilichukuliwa kwenda jeshini miez sita ..baadae nikaenda zenji ..then nikarud shule ile kidato Cha tatu na nikiwa na wastan was 75 kwenye mtihan was form two ambao hata sikuufanya...Kama haya yaliwezekana Tanzania Hapa kwa Mimi ..Huko kwa Putin yanashidikanaje!?....dunia sio Kama unavyoiona...usikariri ..karibu tell aviv

Iyo wadanganye wadogo zako unaowalea apo nyumbani kwako mzee jaribu kuheshimu watu duuuh wee jamaa

 

[Sigonella Island]

.

 

[Mathanzua]

Europe's fake united front is cracking as four European gas buyers have already paid for supplies in rubles as Russia demanded

As the EU attempts to impose unity amid the still fast escalating gas for rubles standoff and potential full-blown energy crisis, Germany has said for the first time it is ready to back a 'gradual ban' on Russian oil.

As detailed in a breaking Bloomberg report, "Berlin would support a phased approach to targeting oil rather than some of the other options that have been discussed, such as a price cap or payment mechanisms to withhold parts of Moscow’s revenue, according to people familiar with talks among EU ambassadors."

"The ban would also need to come with a transition period, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the negotiations are private," the report adds, which is akin to the EU strategy when in banned coal earlier in April.

Meanwhile, after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen upon the start of Wednesday charged the Kremlin with trying to fracture Europe's response with "blackmail" - Moscow has rolled out a few more tricks of its own amid Germany's signaling a change of posture regarding Russian energy it's population is so heavily dependent on...

"Russia’s major gas bank rejected a payment from a trading firm that Germany seized from Moscow’s control, the first sign of friction following the take-over amid a broader regional energy dispute," according to Bloomberg.

Gazprombank is indicating it rejected some April and May gas deliveries payment - even though it was made in rubles per Russia's firm request - on the basis that the German government previously took over Gazprom PJSC’s German subsidiary as part of sanctions enforcement.


* * *

Update(0918ET): Is Europe starting to panic amid cracks in a 'unified European front'? It appears so, based on a press briefing in Brussels by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who said:

"Its’ very clear and the request from the Russian side to pay in rubles is a unilateral decision and not according to the contracts," and further "Companies with such contracts should not accede to the Russian demands. This would be a breach of the sanctions so a high risk for the companies."

She also denounced this "as an instrument of blackmail" after the Gazprom suspension of gas to Poland and Bulgaria. "This is unjustified and unacceptable," she said earlier in the day. "And it shows once again the unreliability of Russia as a gas supplier."

* * *

It appears that Putin's gambit is working.

One day after Russia halted natgas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria due to "nonpayment in rubles", confirming that the country is willing to go ahead with its bluff and shut down supplies to "unfriendly" nations and sending European nat gas prices soaring, Bloomberg reports citing a person close to Russian gas giant Gazprom, that already Europe's fake united front is cracking as four European gas buyers have already paid for supplies in rubles as Russia demanded even as further cutoffs if others refuse the Kremlin’s requirement aren’t likely until the second half of May, when the next payments are due.

While it was unclear which are the four companies violating EU directives and paying directly in rubles, according to Reuters Germany' Uniper and Austrian OMV are among the companies that have folded to Kremlin' demands:

• GERMAN UNIPER CO SAYS PAYMENT SCHEME FOR RUSSIAN GAS IN RUBLES DOES NOT CONTRADICT THE SANCTIONS AND IT IS POSSIBLE TO PAY IN RUBLES - OFFICIAL
• AUSTRIA AND THE AUSTRIAN OMV HAS ACCEPTED THE TERMS OF PAYMENT FOR RUSSIAN GAS IN RUBLES - AUSTRIAN CHANCELLOR

Pro-Russian EU member Hungary, meanwhile, has struck a deal to pay into a euro-denominated account with Gazprombank, which in turn will deposit the amount in roubles to Gazprom Export, foreign minister Peter Szijjarto said in a video posted to Facebook. Its next payment is due on May 22, he said. Slovakia has reached the same agreement, he added as more of Europe realizes that it is impossible to live without Russian energy sources.


Separately, to facilitate their compliance with Russian demands (and ostensibly in breach of European sanctions), ten European companies have already opened the accounts at Gazprombank needed to meet President Vladimir Putin’s payment demands, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential matters.

As we reported yesterday, Russia halted gat supplies to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday after they refused Gazprom’s proposed mechanism for ruble payments, which the gas giant says does not violate European Union sanctions. Russia supplies gas via pipelines to 23 European countries. Moscow demanded that it be paid in rubles for nat gas shipments after the EU imposed sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. However, the EU told member states that the mechanism the Kremlin proposed, which required opening euro and ruble accounts with state-controlled Gazprombank, would violate the sanctions. It appears that to at least 10 energy companies, complying with Russian demands to keep the gas flowing is more important than potentially pissing off some Eurocrats.

According to the FT, Gazprom Export notified Bulgargaz and PGNiG of the suspension of gas supplies from April 27 until payment is made in accordance with the decreed procedure, the company said. It warned that the unauthorised withdrawal of gas volumes transiting through Poland and Bulgaria to other European countries such as Germany would result in a reduction of transit supplies.

“Bulgaria and Poland are transit states,” Gazprom said. “In the event of unauthorized withdrawal of Russian gas from transit volumes to third countries, supplies for transit will be reduced by this volume.”

In response to the "unexpected" supply halts, which infuriated EU president Ursula von der Leyen, who today tweeted that "Gazprom's announcement is another attempt by Russia to blackmail us with gas" adding that Europe is "prepared for this scenario" although judging by the scramble by several energy companies to pay in rubles that is not really true...


... European gas prices rose by 20% on Wednesday. Futures contracts tracking Europe’s wholesale gas price advanced almost by a fifth at €117 per megawatt hour in early trading. Prices are almost seven times higher than a year ago.


“Gazprom has completely suspended gas supplies to Bulgargaz (Bulgaria) and PGNiG (Poland) due to non-payment in roubles,” Gazprom said in a statement on Wednesday.

While we already know that at least a handful of European energy buyers folded to Russian demands, multiple European buyers have refused to pay in roubles (for now), saying it contradicted contract terms and would be a way to bypass EU sanctions on the Russian central bank.

“Politically, this raises the stakes for the EU Commission’s decision on whether the new payment system would violate sanctions and, hence, will probably keep market volatility elevated,” said Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart in a note to clients. She also added that it is Goldman's "view that it is in the interest of both the EU and Russia to work out a solution that brings gas payments in compliance with the EU's legal requirements, consistent with recent comments from Brussels."

Today's events can work as an added incentive for the EU, and especially Germany, to find a way to work out a RUB payment mechanism given the significant economic toll a halt in gas flows would have in the region, which would be much greater than that of Poland or Bulgaria.

Well, it appears that in lieu of a political resolution, at least some companies are taking matters into their own hands, a development which will either escalate tensions further and lead to even more draconian measures, as the following Reuters quotes suggests:

• WESTERN OFFICIALS SAY RUSSIA DECISION TO HALT GAS TO POLAND, BULGARIA IS LIKELY TO BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE AS IT DEMONSTRATES WHY DEPENDENCE ON RUSSIA MAKES COUNTRIES VULNERABLE TO COERCION

... or force Europe to realize that full sanctions of Russian energy are impossible and force politicians to find loopholes, as this next Reuters headline signals:

• EU WILL TEMPORARILY INCREASE GAS PURCHASES FROM THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION THROUGH COUNTRIES READY TO PAY IN RUBLES TO COMPENSATE FOR THE CESSATION OF SUPPLIES TO POLAND AND BULGARIA - TASS SOURCE

To be sure, in a worst case scenario, Goldman warns that "a full interruption of Russian flows to Germany would potentially lift European gas prices to over 200 EUR/MWh this summer."

Given all of this, it appears the Ruble is no longer "rubble" after all, trading at 6-month highs versus the dollar...



And near two-year highs against the euro...



Just remember, Janet Yellen said this was all manipulation and told you that "you should not infer anything" from the value of the ruble.

 

[bobby_Barbosa_9]

Ogopa mtu anayelia huku anapigana akikushika suruali haachii hata urushe makofi na ngumu na vichwa haachii hadi ahakikishe umedondoka chini akungat'e na meno sehemu za uume kama mwanaume na kuukatilia mbali kwa meno

Putin analo

[emoji1787][emoji1787]

 

[Cash Generating Unit]

Tunaendelea kujikusanyia weapons

 

[Econometrician]

Kaka kama huna habari jinsi gani gesi inavyotumiwa na jinsi gani soko la gesi linavyofanya kazi, labda utafakari kidogo kabla ya kutukana??
Ndiyo, Ujerumani wanazo ghala kubwa za gesi. Ona chini maelezo (yenye namba za siku kabla ya vita):
Soma: "The total capacity for injection and withdrawal from German gas storage facilities is around 23 billion cubic meters of gas. Germany ranks fourth among the world’s largest storage countries. Only in the US, Ukraine and Russia there are even greater capacities." Chanzo: Gas Storage Capacities - INES Initiative Energien Speichern
Soma "About half of German imports of gas.., and about one third of its oil imports originate from Russia." Chanzo: What if Germany is cut off from Russian oil and gas?
Kwa hiyo wanahitaji kupata mbadala kwa nusu ya mahitaji yao ya gesi (sehemu inayotoka Urusi).
Matumizi ya gesi ya Ujerumani mwaka 2021 yalikuwa mita za ujazo bilioni 87; nusu yake (=gesi kutoka Urusi) ni takriban bilioni 45; hivyo serikali yao inaona kwamba gesi kutoka nchi nyingine pamoja na akiba inaleta kiasi cha kutosha ili kudumu mwaka 1.
Kuhusu mafuta wametanagza kwamba wameshapunguza matumizi ya mafuta ya Urusi kutoka asilimia 34 hadi asilimia 12.

Akiba ya kununua nayo unaita akiba,nilidhani unazungumzia akiba kutoka kwenye ardhi yake.Hata angekuwa na tank zenye ujazo wa maelf na maelf issue ni kuwa Nchi take haina reserve ya kutosheleza mahitaji yao,hivyo hana option yoyote zaidi ya kununua kutoka kwenye mataifa yenye gas nyingi kama Russia.

 

[babu na mjukuu]

Huwezi kuona hasara ya kitu ambacho unakitengeneza wewe mwenyewe tofauti na mnunuzi ....kwanza wana rasilimali za kutosha kuunda hayo masilaha so ........tofautyi na huko ulaya gesi wanategemea kwa mrusi ......ingekuwa wanachimba huko huko kwao tusingekunywa maji humu au wangemuonea sana mrusi bahati nzuri wamemkuta mwamba yuko FULL FULL[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] ........hategemei mtu kama wao wanavomtegemea

Kwahakika tunapaswa kumshukuru Santa Mungu. Hawa mashetani wangekuwa na rasilimali za kujitosheleza kama Russia amini leo tungekuwa dunia nzima ni watumwa wao. Wangeaumua nani aishi na nani afe(kwakumzuia bidhaa muhimu)

Sent from my SM-G5500 using JamiiForums mobile app

 

[Mwanamkiwi]

Ww jamaa acha kutufanya mazuzu humu.
Maana umekuwa ukiongea mambo kana kwamba ww pekee ndio mfuatiaji wa mambo yanavyo enda duniani.

Nimesha kwambia na ninarudia kukwambia hayo maneno ya sijui kupuguza utegemezi wa mafuta na gesi ya Urusi ni ya kisiasa tu lakini kiuchumi haliwezekani kwa haraka kama ww unavyo taka kutuaminisha.

Mpaka sasa hakuna kiwango chochote cha mafuta kwenda kwenye nchi za magharibi kilicho pungua bali kimeongezeka zaidi ya aslimia 20.

Hiyo Poland unayo isema itaanza kulazimika kununu gesi ya Urusi kupitia nchi nyingine kama Ujerumani tena kwa bei kubwa.
Marekani kapiga marufuku mafuta ya Urusi lakini marufuku hiyo imebaki kwenye makaratasi tu ila utekelezaji wake umekuwa ni mgumu bado meli za mafuta ya Urusi linaendelea kutia nanga kwenye bandari za Marekani.

Unalalamika na kuleta mahubiri - wapi data zako? Habari unayoleta kuhusu Urusi kuongeza mafuta kwenda "nchi za kimagharibi" haina msingi. Nchi gani? Kwa kipindi gani?? Chanzo?? Lete data.
Data ninayoona kutoka IEA (=International Energy Agency) zinaonyesha kwamba uzalishaji wa mafuta nchini Urusi ulipungua tayari barrels 700,000 kwenye mwanzo wa Aprili (kutoka kiwango cha barrel milioni 5 mwanzo wa Machi). IAE inakadiria hadi mwisho wa April itapungua tayari barrel 1,500,000.
Chanzo: Oil Market Report - April 2022 – Analysis - IEA