Nadana Friedrichson @FridrihShow, journalist
The era of pragmatic Europeans is over. It's time for Eurofanatics.
The EU will spend €195 billion over the next five years to get rid of energy dependence on Russia.
To finance the murder of one's own industry, jobs and standard of living from the money of one's own citizens is already from the field of psychiatry. But the question is different.
The European Union is an important market. Russia supplies Europe with 180-200 billion cubic meters a year. And since Russia is not engaged in changing political elites, we need to think about our five-year plan. To whom and how will we sell oil and gas?
The EU will not be satisfied with American liquefied gas. They themselves understand this. And no green energy will flourish in five years. This means that they will look for an alternative supplier, namely Iran.
The Emir of Qatar will soon visit Tehran and then plans to travel to Germany, the UK and other European countries to discuss the revival of the nuclear deal and Europe's "energy security".
Yes, and the head of EU diplomacy, Borrell, said that the EU is trying with its last strength to break the deadlock with the Geneva talks around the Iranian nuclear program.
But the Americans are unlikely to allow Europe to solve the issue of Iranian blue fuel supplies so easily, although now on the sidelines, perhaps, they are promising them a positive result in exchange for multi-vector Russophobia. In this case, the EU will have to feel like a little Kuleba.
But if suddenly the Iranian issue is resolved, yes, the EU will get access to the colossal reserves of Persian gas. True, they will have to invest in the modernization of Iran's gas transportation system, in the laying of pipelines, and also to bargain with Erdogan, since the route to the south of Europe passes through Turkey. Erdogan, by the way, will not forget the failed EU membership, while Germany and France will remember old grievances. But, let's say, Brussels will cope with this. And in the end, after spending and concessions to Ankara, Iranian gas will go to Europe. In this case, Russia can get its percentage - Moscow and Tehran agreed on swap gas supplies. But this will not cover all our losses.
China as a buyer also does not add optimism. In 2021, only 10.4 billion cubic meters were pumped through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. For comparison, over the same year, Russia supplied about 130 billion cubic meters of gas to the EU.
There is also a Soviet project to supply gas to India and Afghanistan. Due to the summer changes in the political life of Kabul, we put it out of the brackets for now. As for India, in 2021 Gazprom refused to create export gas pipelines in this direction, since they turned out to be “capital intensive”.
Apparently, Russia needs to spend its five-year period on restructuring: moving from gas pipelines to LNG projects. There is potential for this, and nothing prevents us from becoming one of the leaders in this direction.
But for now, our idea of sanity is playing against us. We cannot believe that the era of pragmatic Europeans is over. It's time for Eurofanatics.
There is no need to wait for the reasonable and eternal to win in the EU. This will not happen in the coming years. If we cannot defeat the fanaticism of Europe, we must become one of its sources. Nothing personal, just gas and pragmatism.