Wakati tukisubiri vita kubwa sana kati ya Iran na Marekani

[Echolima1]

Vita ikianza unaona Iran hana uwezo wa kulenga carriers za US?

Who is Iran by the way!!!

Tena hapo Iran is a heavily sanctioned nations over 4 decades.
Ukija kwa GNI Iran anaizidi Vietnam kwa mbali sana.

Endelea kuwaramba miguu magaidi wa Iran ambako Dola 1 ya Marekani ni sawa na million moja na usher. Sasa hiyo ni nchi kweli?

 

[Echolima1]

Vita ikianza unaona Iran hana uwezo wa kulenga carriers za US?

Who is Iran by the way!!!

Tena hapo Iran is a heavily sanctioned nations over 4 decades.
Ukija kwa GNI Iran anaizidi Vietnam kwa mbali sana.

Endelea kuwaramba miguu magaidi wa Iran ambako Dola 1 ya Marekani ni sawa na million moja na usher. Sasa hiyo ni nchi kweli?

 

[100 others]

Leo hii usiku kaa karibu na TV yako ndipo utajua nini wanaenda kufanyiwa wafadhili wa magaidi huko Mashariki ya kati!!

Mbona hakitokei kitu wiki inakwenda kuisha.. lini tena tusubiri?

 

[Echolima1]

Mbona hakitokei kitu wiki inakwenda kuisha.. lini tena tusubiri?

Mwanzo Magaidi wa Iran walipo a kuzungumzia lakini baada ya Mkwara huo walikubali kuzungumzia kuhusu usitishwaji wa uchakataji wa uranium.

Kwa maoni yangu Iran wanajitahidi sana kubaka lakini Wataachia tu maana wameshikwa pabaya!!!

Kwa taarifa yako tu Jana kulikuwa na milipuko 5 sehemu mbalimbali huko Iran hii Inaonyesha kuwa Mvua za Rasha-rasha bado zinaendelea kunyesha huko Iran. Kuhusu vita subira tu Mvua za Masika lazima tu zitanyesha ndipo Mtajua kuwa wana wana wa Israel hawana dogo!!

 

[Il Padrino]

At 10:24 this morning, Friday February 27, the United States Ambassador to Israel emailed his own staff and told them to leave the country today.

Not next week. Not when convenient. Today.

Mike Huckabee, the man Donald Trump personally appointed to represent America in Israel, sent an email to every embassy employee in Jerusalem telling them that anyone wishing to depart should book “any available flight” and leave Israeli soil before the day ends. The embassy has shifted to “authorized departure” status, meaning the US government will pay for nonessential personnel and their families to evacuate. The New York Times obtained the email. The timestamp is 10:24 AM local time. The language says “no need to panic.” The action says panic.

When an ambassador tells his own people to leave the country he is assigned to, he is not managing risk. He is clearing the blast radius.

Authorized departure is the second-to-last step on the State Department’s crisis escalation ladder. The only step above it is ordered departure, which is mandatory evacuation. The United States has not reached ordered departure. But at 10:24 this morning it reached the step directly below it, and the ambassador personally urged speed.

Now hold this against what happened in the last 72 hours.

Wednesday, Geneva. Six and a half hours of talks. Araghchi called it the most serious session yet. The Wall Street Journal reported the US and Iran remain far apart on every core issue. Iran refused permanent zero enrichment. America refused anything less.

Thursday, 37 advanced combat aircraft landed at RAF Lakenheath in a single day. 12 F-35As. 14 F-15E Strike Eagles. Additional F-22s. The staging base that funneled the first wave of Raptors to Israel is now reloading with strike aircraft carrying 23,000 pounds of ordnance each.

Friday morning, the ambassador tells his people to leave.

Wednesday you negotiate. Thursday you reload. Friday you evacuate your own embassy.

That is not a sequence of unrelated events. That is a countdown visible to anyone reading the timestamps.

Huckabee’s email went out five hours ago. Tomorrow, Saturday February 28, Oman’s Foreign Minister meets Vice President Vance in Washington carrying Tehran’s response to Geneva. Technical talks are nominally scheduled for Vienna next week. But you do not tell your embassy staff to leave today if you believe next week’s talks will happen in a world that looks like this one.

The email says “make plans sooner rather than later.” Ambassadors are trained to communicate in precise diplomatic language where every word is calibrated. “Sooner rather than later” from a political appointee who does not speak in euphemism means the window for safe commercial departure is closing and he knows approximately when it closes.

India told its citizens to leave Iran. Germany told citizens in Israel to prepare for airspace closures. Beirut’s US embassy began evacuating. And now America’s own ambassador in Jerusalem is telling his own staff to get out of the country he represents.

Everyone with classified briefing access is moving in the same direction. Toward the exit.

Today. Not Monday. Not after Vienna. Today, Friday February 27.

The people who know what is coming are not waiting to find out. They are already on planes.

The only people still debating whether this is real are the ones without the clearance to read what Huckabee read before he typed that email at 10:24 am this morning.

open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

 

[Il Padrino]

China just told its citizens to leave Iran immediately. China. The country that is currently selling Iran CM-302 anti-ship missiles. The country whose satellites have been photographing every American base, every carrier departure, every F-22 on Israeli tarmac. The country that delivered electronic warfare systems to Tehran and published annotated imagery of US strike architecture on Weibo in Mandarin. That country just told its own people to get out.

Xinhua, China’s official state news agency, issued the advisory today, Friday February 27. Beijing advised citizens to avoid all travel to Iran and urged those present to evacuate as soon as possible via commercial flights or land borders. This is not the January statement where spokesperson Mao Ning said China was “monitoring” and would “take measures to ensure safety.” That was diplomatic holding language. This is evacuation language. The shift from monitoring to evacuate happened in the same week China finalized missiles designed to sink the ships America is sending.

You do not arm a country and evacuate from it simultaneously unless you know the weapons you sold will be needed and you know when.

Now hold every evacuation signal issued on this single Friday.

10:24 AM local time, US Ambassador Huckabee emailed his own staff in Jerusalem: leave Israel today. The embassy shifted to authorized departure, one step below mandatory evacuation, the US government paying for families to fly out. India told citizens to leave Iran. Canada issued its strongest possible warning: leave Iran now. Germany advised citizens in Israel to prepare for airspace closures. The Beirut embassy is evacuating against Hezbollah retaliation.

Six governments. One Friday. All running for the same exits.

Each of those governments has classified intelligence briefings that you and I do not have. Each reached the same conclusion independently. Each chose the same day to act. Whatever they read in those briefings, it produced identical behavior across six capitals on six continents within the same 12-hour window on Friday February 27.

But China’s advisory is different from all the others. America evacuates because America might strike. India evacuates because India has citizens in the blast radius. Canada and Germany evacuate because NATO allies share intelligence. China evacuates because China knows exactly what it sold, exactly what it photographed, and exactly what happens when the weapons it transferred meet the strike package it mapped.

Beijing just told you it expects its own missiles to be fired. At the ships it photographed. Using the intelligence it provided. And it wants its people clear before the math resolves.

The country arming Iran for war just cleared its civilians from the battlefield. That is not a travel advisory. That is a departure from a construction site the morning before demolition. The architect knows the schedule because the architect drew the blueprints.

Everyone with a classified briefing is moving toward the exit. On the same Friday. In the same direction. At the same speed. The only people still debating whether this is real are the ones without clearance to read what six governments read before they picked up the phone and said the same word: “leave”.

open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

 

[Il Padrino]

Russia leaked America’s war plan to Iran. Then sold Iran the weapons to survive it.

And almost nobody is talking about what it means when you read them together.

The New York Times and Politico report that on February 20, Russian intelligence delivered a fully developed US strike plan to Tehran. Target matrices. Launch platforms. Timing sequences. The entire campaign architecture handed to the IRGC while Geneva talks were still being scheduled. The foundational advantage of every air campaign since Desert Storm, surprise, was eliminated by Moscow with a single transmission.

Six weeks earlier, December 2025, Russia quietly signed a €500 million arms deal with Iran. The Financial Times obtained the contract details. 500 Verba MANPADS launchers. 2,500 advanced 9M336 missiles. The most significant air defense transfer to Iran since the S-300, negotiated through Rosoboronexport specifically to rebuild what Midnight Hammer destroyed last June.

One country told Iran exactly what America plans to hit. The same country sold Iran the weapons to defend against it. The deal was requested in July after Iran watched its air defenses get shredded. The leak arrived in February as the next campaign assembled. Whether coordinated by design or converging by logic, the effect is identical: Iran now knows what is coming and has the hardware to contest it.

Now add China. Reuters confirmed this week Beijing is nearing transfer of CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles to Iran. Mach 3. Designed to kill Aegis destroyers. While simultaneously photographing every American base, every carrier departure, every F-22 on Israeli tarmac, and publishing annotated imagery on Weibo in Mandarin.

Russia provides the intelligence and air defense. China provides the anti-ship missiles and real-time surveillance. Iran receives the strike plan, the weapons to contest the sky, and the missiles to threaten the fleet. No formal trilateral alliance. No treaty. Three powers independently ensuring an American strike costs the maximum possible.

Why would Russia, with 2 million citizens in Israel, 15 percent of the population and $3 billion in annual trade, arm the country sworn to destroy Israel? Putin answered this himself June 2025: Israel is “almost a Russian-speaking country.” The leak targets America, not Israel. The Verba missiles shoot at American aircraft, not Israeli ones. Degrade US power projection without endangering the diaspora.

Russia and China do not need Iran to win. They need America to spend. Every Tomahawk fired at Isfahan is absent from a Taiwan contingency. Pentagon insiders admitted 7 to 10 days of munitions. Moscow and Beijing are ensuring those days cost the maximum in precision stockpiles that take years to replenish.

Iran is not being defended. Iran is being instrumented. Armed enough to bleed. Informed enough to prepare. Equipped enough to threaten. Not enough to win. The optimal outcome for Moscow and Beijing is a war America wins at a price it cannot afford to pay twice.

Tomorrow, Saturday February 28, Oman’s Foreign Minister meets Vice President Vance in Washington carrying whatever Tehran authorized after Geneva’s most intense session yet. Technical talks move to Vienna next week. The diplomatic clock is still running. But the intelligence damage is already done.

Russia has already told Iran what is coming. China has already armed the fleet threat. The strike plan is compromised. The defenses are rebuilding. The anti-ship missiles are transferring.

The question is no longer whether America can strike Iran. The question is whether a campaign the enemy has already read is still worth launching.

open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

 

[Echolima1]

Mwenye macho haambiwi tazama!!!!!

Iran kwa miaka mingi amekuwa akiwachezea shere nchi za magharibi hasa kuhusu suala la nuclear. Sasa safari hii ameingia kwenye 18 za mbabe wa dunia sidhani kama atachomoka.

Jioni hii tena Mvua za rasha-rasha zimeendelea kuonyesha wakubwa wamepigwa kambi kubwa ya magaidi wa IRGC huko Tehran wakati huohuo nchi mbalimbali zimeendelea kuwatolea Mwito raia wao watoke huko Israel na Iran maana sufuria limekaribia kuchemka!!!!!

 

[100 others]

Mwenye macho haambiwi tazama!!!!!

Iran kwa miaka mingi amekubali akiwachezea shere nchi za magharibi hasa kuhusu suala la nuclear. Sasa safari hii ameingia kwenye 18 za mbabe wa dunia sidhani kama atachomoka.

Jioni hii tena Mvua za rasha-rasha zimeendelea kuonyesha wakubwa wamepigwa kambi kubwa ya magaidi wa IRGC huko Tehran wakati huohuo nchi mbalimbali zimeendelea kuwatolea Mwita raia wao watoke huko Israel na Iran maana sufuria limekaribia kuchemka!!!!!

Tuliwaambia hapa, mashambulizi ya kwenye vinu vya nulear hayakufanikiwa, mkaleta ubishi wa kipuuzi, tukawambia hakuna leakage ya radiation...

Iran bado inaendelea na urutubishaji wa nuclear kama kawaida, US na Israel hawakufanikiwa kuharibu vinu vyao kwenye 12 days war, hivi sasa wanarudi tena.

Missiles bado wanazo za kutosha chini ya ardhi, Israel ijipange, US ijipange.

 

[Khaibar]

Tuliwaambia hapa, mashambulizi ya kwenye vinu vya nulear hayakufanikiwa, mkaleta ubishi wa kipuuzi, tukawambia hakuna leakage ya radiation...

Iran bado inaendelea na urutubishaji wa nuclear kama kawaida, US na Israel hawakufanikiwa kuharibu vinu vyao kwenye 12 days war, hivi sasa wanarudi tena.

Missiles bado wanazo za kutosha chini ya ardhi, Israel ijipange, US ijipange.

Huyu jamaa hata anachokiandika hakieleweki.

 

[City Thunder OKC]

Tuliwaambia hapa, mashambulizi ya kwenye vinu vya nulear hayakufanikiwa, mkaleta ubishi wa kipuuzi, tukawambia hakuna leakage ya radiation...

Iran bado inaendelea na urutubishaji wa nuclear kama kawaida, US na Israel hawakufanikiwa kuharibu vinu vyao kwenye 12 days war, hivi sasa wanarudi tena.

Missiles bado wanazo za kutosha chini ya ardhi, Israel ijipange, US ijipange.

Iran anaendelea na urutubishaji nyuklia? Kabla ya ile Vita urutubishaji ulikua 60%, kwa hiyo Iran aliendelea? Mkuu hivi mnaskia raha gani kuongopa?

Pili, zile nuclear plants zilizoshambulia unamaanisha zinaendelea na kazi? Sijui why unaongopa

 

[City Thunder OKC]

Huyu jamaa hata anachokiandika hakieleweki.

Ngoja nikuilize wewe hili swali, Iran bado anaendelea na urutubishaji wa uranium?

 

[100 others]

Iran anaendelea na urutubishaji nyuklia? Kabla ya ile Vita urutubishaji ulikua 60%, kwa hiyo Iran aliendelea? Mkuu hivi mnaskia raha gani kuongopa?

Pili, zile nuclear plants zilizoshambulia unamaanisha zinaendelea na kazi? Sijui why unaongopa

Pole sana, we unadhani walisimama?
Unafikiri US walifanikiwa kupiga centrifuges..?

POle sana..

 

[Atacms]

Kati ya Marekani na Jamhuri ya Kiislamu ya Iran. Nielezee kwa kifupi sababu halisi za vita hivi, ili mtu akijitia upumbavu iwe ni shauri yake. Maana kuna watu tayari wamejazwa punzi kuwa Iran ni magaidi, wasiotaka maendeleo, wanaotaka kuuangamiza Ufalmu wa Mungu wa Israeli, na... 'malakia' mengine!

Iran ilifanya mapinduzi ya Wananchi mwaka 1979 na kufanikiwa kumwondoa mfalme aliyekuwa kipenzi cha Marekani, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Shah (Mfalme) alikuwa nambari 1 Mashariki ya kati kwa kupendwa na Marekani kuliko hata Israel, Turkey au Saudi Arabia hivi sasa. Kama unavyoiona Israeli hivi sasa ilikuwa Iran.

Tukio la kupinduliwa Reza halikuipendeza Marekanai na kwa kweli lilikuja kama kustukiza kwani Marekani haikufikiria hata siku moja hilo lingewezekana. Kama unavyojua katika serikali vibaraka wananchi hawa patilizwi, na ndivyo ilivyokuwa hivyo Iran. Mapinduzi yalikuja kama tija ya umaskini katika nchi iliyokuwa nambari 1 kwa kuuza mafuta nje.
Fast Forward....chuki zilianza mara moja. Marekani ikijaribu kumrudisha Shah na Wairan, wote wakati huo, wakipinga. Ndipo Ayatollah Khomaini akaamuru Wanabalozi wa Marekani wazuiwe kuondoka nchini ili wawe kama dhamana ya kutotokea mapinduzi. Jambo hili lilipandisha mori wa Marekani na chuki. Tangu siku hiyo Marekani ikaiwekea vikwazo Iran hadi leo!
Kinyume na wengi walivyodanganywa, Ayatollah Khomeini alisimika Jamhuri ya Kiislamu baada ya kura ya maoni 1979, ambapo mfumo wa Kiislamu, Islamic Republic, ulikubaliwa na wengi kwa kura ya maoni ya asilimia 98.2. Hii ilikuwa kura ya wazi, huru na amani kabisa katika Mashariki ya Kati kuwahi kutokea, hata kushinda kura za Israel na Uturuki (zinazosifiwa kuwa na demokrsia), kwa mujibu wa UN wakati huo.

Wamarekani waliposhindwa kumrudisha Shah mapema, wakasuka mpango wa kumshawishi rais jirani wa Iraq, Saddam Hussein, kuishabulia Iran, angalau waweze kuiangusha Jamhuri changa kwa vita. Hilo halikufanikiwa, na kwa miaka 8 iliyofuata vita ikapiganwa. Kwanza Wairan walikuwa wanyonge, waliwekewa vikwazo vya kununua silaha na nchi zote, hata risasi! Hata na Soviet Union, nchi iliyojitambulisha kwa kuwatetea wanyonge na wanaokandamizwa!
Ila kutokana na akili, vipaji na ubunifu wa Wairan, kidogo kidogo wakajitengenezea silaha hadi ilipofika 1985 wakakomboa ardhi zao zote, bali wakaingia Iraq! Kumbuka, nchi zote za Kiarabu zilikuwa zikiisaidia Iraq kwa mabilioni. Ni Syria na Libya pekee waliomwunga mkono Iran, zaidi kwa maneno.
Ni katika kipindi hiki ndipo Iran ilipoanza kujijengea viwanda mbali mbali hasa vya silaha baada ya kupata fundisho baya.
SUALA LA NUKLIA
Hili ndilo suala ambalo Marekani inasema inaingia vitani kwa ajili yake.
Ni hivi, kwanza kuna tofauti baina ya silaha za nuklia na nishati ya nuklia. UN, baada ya kuona maafa makubwa yaliyosababishwa na Mabomu ya nuklia yaliyoangushwa na Marekani kule Nagasaki na Heroshima Japan mwishoni mwa vita kuu ya pili, iliweka taratibu kufanya Mataifa yote mengine yasiyokuwa bado yameunda silaha za nuklia kufikia mwaka 1950, wazuiwe kabisa kuundfa silaha hizo, lakini wapewe ruhusa ya kufaidika na nishati za nuklia, kwani nishati hizi zinaweza kutumiwa katika matumizi ya amani kama kufua umeme, madawa, kilimo na safina ziendazo chini zaidi baharini au kwenye anga za nje nk.

Hadi hapo ni Marekani, Urusi, China, France, Uingereza ndiyo zilizokuwa na silaha hizo pekee, Baadaye wengine wakazipata kinyemela, Israel, India, Pakistan na Korea ya Kusini (Hiyo ni hadithi kando).

Ili kuratibu utumiaji wa nishati za nuklia, mwaka 1968 wakaunda NPT, Nuclear non Proliferation Treaty, Yaani Mkataba wa Kuzuia Kusambaa kwa Silaha za Nuklia.
Kwa mujibu wake, nchi inayotaka kutumia nishati ya nuklia kwa mambo ya amani, labuda kwanza wajiunge na NPT, waahidi hawatatengeneza silaha, na pia vinu na mitambo yote ya kufulia nishati hiyo viwe chini ya udhibiti na uchunguzi wa mara kwa mawa wa Shirika hili NPT.
IRAN INABAGULIWA
Program ya nuklia ya Iran ilianza tangu wakati wa Shah ambaye alisaini NPT mwanzoni kabisa 1968. Marekani hasa ndiyo iliyomjengea Shah mitambo miwili ya mwanzo ya nuklia bila nongwa. Iran ilikuwa inanunua madini ya Urani au Kinywe kutoka Marekani bila matatizo yoyote, kwa ajili ya kutengeneza madawa hasa ya Kansa.

Tatizo likaanza kujitokeza wakati Serikali mpya ya Kiislamu, mwaka 1990, ikataka kununua mzigo kutoka Marekani kwa ajili ya wagonjwa wake. Wakati huo Iran ilikuwa na wagonjwa wasiopungua 40 elfu wa Kansa. Malimbikizo yaliyokuwepo kabla ya mapinduzi yalikuwa yamekwisha. Lo! Hammadi. Marekani, ikakataa kuuza urani kwa Iran, ingawaje hili ni kinyume cha Sheria za Kimataifa na NPT! Zaidi ya hivyo, kila Iran ilipokwenda kutafuta nchi nyingine, kama Brazil, Argentina, Japan....walikuta katazo la Marekani wasiuziwe!
Ungefanyaje kama wewe ni kiongozi wa nchi yako? Hapo ndipo Iran ilipanza fikra ya kuweza kutengeneza enrichment (kutakasa) yenyewe.
Kama nilivyokuambia, Wairan ni watu wana akili za ajabu sana. Lakini pia, kitu cha kwanza Serikali ya Kiislamu kukitilia mkazo ilipofika madarakani ni elimu. JHakuna kazi nzuri Iran kama mwalimu. Serikali imefungua vyuo vya viwango vya nchi zilizoendelea na zaidi. Hivi tusemavyo, kila mwaka wanafunzi wa Iran ndiyo wanaochukua namba 1, 2 katika mashindano ya Hesabati duniani (World Maths Olympics). Vyuo Vikuu vinne vya Iran ni kati ya 10 vinaongoza duniani katika Engineering!
Kifupi...wakaweza kujifanyia wenyewe enrichment...kurutubisha madini ya kinywe! Wamarekani macho yakawatoka, hawakuamini kamwa Wairan wenyewe wangeweza kufanya enrichment! Ni elimu ambayo hata nchi kama Italy, Spain, Sweden etc bado hawajafika!

MIZENGWE YA MAREKANI
Kwa kutaka kuzuia maendeleo ya Iran, Marekani ikishakizwa na Israel, ikaanza kuchochea kwamba Iran ina nia ya kutengeneza silaha za nuklia, ingawaje Iran imetia saini ya kutotengeneza silaha hizo, bali na Kiongozi wake wa Kidini Ayatollah Khomeini alitoa fatwa kwamba kutengeneza silaha kali za kuuwa binadamu kwa jumla bila kuchagua ni marufuku katika Uislamu.

Marekani imeshikilia Iran ina nia ya kutengeneza silah! Baya zaidi, marafiki wa Marekani, kama Israel, ina silaha za nuklia hasa na imekataa kutia saini ya kudhibiti silaha hizo....lakini Israel ndiyo hasa iko mbele katika kuisakama Iran ambayo haina!
NPT iliibana Iran kwa kuipa masharti magumu zaidi, mfano wawe waweza kutembelea mitambo yote bila hodi na bila kutoa taarifa.... Iran ilikubali hiyo ingawaje haikuwa lazima, lakini havijawaombea!

Kama unajua dunia vizuri, basi utajua kuwa Marekani ni koloni la Israel na kwa hiyo inafanya kila inaloamriwa na Israel, ikiwemo vita hii ijayo.
Israel haitaki kuona nchi yenye nguvu inayoshindana nayo. Na sababu kuu hasa ni kwamba inaogopa kwamba kukiwa na dola linaloweza kusikizwa duniani, hatimaye dola hilo litakuja kuilazimisha Israel kuwapa Wapalestiona sehemu zao ilizoziteka mwaka 1967 kwa mujibu wa UN.
Sehemu hizo, kama Gaza na Ufukwe wa Mashariki wa Mto Jordan, Wayahudi wanadai Mungu wao aliwakabidhi wao, miaka 3,000 iliyopita! Sisi tuliouliza tuone Hati hiyo Miliki ya Mungu....bado twasubiri majinbu. Ila baadhi ya madhehebu ya Kikristo huunga mkono hilo, Huko Marekani, Wakristo hao ndiyo wanaoshinikiza serikali yao juu ya kuisapoti Israel hata kinyume na sheria za Kimataifa!

Utaona ingawaje kuna udini fulani katika vita hivi kwa mtazamo wa Israel, lakini kwaa mtazamo wa siasa za dunia yetu ya sasa zinazosimamiwa na misingi ya haki na sheria....hii ni vita ya mbabe mwenye silaha kubwa kumkanyaga mnyonge. Might is right!

Emb sammaraizi hii ngonjera maana nimeshindwa hata kusoma huu mpasho

 

[Echolima1]

Huyu jamaa hata anachokiandika hakieleweki.

Toka lini Mimi zuzu akanielewa?

 

[Shytown]

Kati ya Marekani na Jamhuri ya Kiislamu ya Iran. Nielezee kwa kifupi sababu halisi za vita hivi, ili mtu akijitia upumbavu iwe ni shauri yake. Maana kuna watu tayari wamejazwa punzi kuwa Iran ni magaidi, wasiotaka maendeleo, wanaotaka kuuangamiza Ufalmu wa Mungu wa Israeli, na... 'malakia' mengine!

Iran ilifanya mapinduzi ya Wananchi mwaka 1979 na kufanikiwa kumwondoa mfalme aliyekuwa kipenzi cha Marekani, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Shah (Mfalme) alikuwa nambari 1 Mashariki ya kati kwa kupendwa na Marekani kuliko hata Israel, Turkey au Saudi Arabia hivi sasa. Kama unavyoiona Israeli hivi sasa ilikuwa Iran.

Tukio la kupinduliwa Reza halikuipendeza Marekanai na kwa kweli lilikuja kama kustukiza kwani Marekani haikufikiria hata siku moja hilo lingewezekana. Kama unavyojua katika serikali vibaraka wananchi hawa patilizwi, na ndivyo ilivyokuwa hivyo Iran. Mapinduzi yalikuja kama tija ya umaskini katika nchi iliyokuwa nambari 1 kwa kuuza mafuta nje.
Fast Forward....chuki zilianza mara moja. Marekani ikijaribu kumrudisha Shah na Wairan, wote wakati huo, wakipinga. Ndipo Ayatollah Khomaini akaamuru Wanabalozi wa Marekani wazuiwe kuondoka nchini ili wawe kama dhamana ya kutotokea mapinduzi. Jambo hili lilipandisha mori wa Marekani na chuki. Tangu siku hiyo Marekani ikaiwekea vikwazo Iran hadi leo!
Kinyume na wengi walivyodanganywa, Ayatollah Khomeini alisimika Jamhuri ya Kiislamu baada ya kura ya maoni 1979, ambapo mfumo wa Kiislamu, Islamic Republic, ulikubaliwa na wengi kwa kura ya maoni ya asilimia 98.2. Hii ilikuwa kura ya wazi, huru na amani kabisa katika Mashariki ya Kati kuwahi kutokea, hata kushinda kura za Israel na Uturuki (zinazosifiwa kuwa na demokrsia), kwa mujibu wa UN wakati huo.

Wamarekani waliposhindwa kumrudisha Shah mapema, wakasuka mpango wa kumshawishi rais jirani wa Iraq, Saddam Hussein, kuishabulia Iran, angalau waweze kuiangusha Jamhuri changa kwa vita. Hilo halikufanikiwa, na kwa miaka 8 iliyofuata vita ikapiganwa. Kwanza Wairan walikuwa wanyonge, waliwekewa vikwazo vya kununua silaha na nchi zote, hata risasi! Hata na Soviet Union, nchi iliyojitambulisha kwa kuwatetea wanyonge na wanaokandamizwa!
Ila kutokana na akili, vipaji na ubunifu wa Wairan, kidogo kidogo wakajitengenezea silaha hadi ilipofika 1985 wakakomboa ardhi zao zote, bali wakaingia Iraq! Kumbuka, nchi zote za Kiarabu zilikuwa zikiisaidia Iraq kwa mabilioni. Ni Syria na Libya pekee waliomwunga mkono Iran, zaidi kwa maneno.
Ni katika kipindi hiki ndipo Iran ilipoanza kujijengea viwanda mbali mbali hasa vya silaha baada ya kupata fundisho baya.
SUALA LA NUKLIA
Hili ndilo suala ambalo Marekani inasema inaingia vitani kwa ajili yake.
Ni hivi, kwanza kuna tofauti baina ya silaha za nuklia na nishati ya nuklia. UN, baada ya kuona maafa makubwa yaliyosababishwa na Mabomu ya nuklia yaliyoangushwa na Marekani kule Nagasaki na Heroshima Japan mwishoni mwa vita kuu ya pili, iliweka taratibu kufanya Mataifa yote mengine yasiyokuwa bado yameunda silaha za nuklia kufikia mwaka 1950, wazuiwe kabisa kuundfa silaha hizo, lakini wapewe ruhusa ya kufaidika na nishati za nuklia, kwani nishati hizi zinaweza kutumiwa katika matumizi ya amani kama kufua umeme, madawa, kilimo na safina ziendazo chini zaidi baharini au kwenye anga za nje nk.

Hadi hapo ni Marekani, Urusi, China, France, Uingereza ndiyo zilizokuwa na silaha hizo pekee, Baadaye wengine wakazipata kinyemela, Israel, India, Pakistan na Korea ya Kusini (Hiyo ni hadithi kando).

Ili kuratibu utumiaji wa nishati za nuklia, mwaka 1968 wakaunda NPT, Nuclear non Proliferation Treaty, Yaani Mkataba wa Kuzuia Kusambaa kwa Silaha za Nuklia.
Kwa mujibu wake, nchi inayotaka kutumia nishati ya nuklia kwa mambo ya amani, labuda kwanza wajiunge na NPT, waahidi hawatatengeneza silaha, na pia vinu na mitambo yote ya kufulia nishati hiyo viwe chini ya udhibiti na uchunguzi wa mara kwa mawa wa Shirika hili NPT.
IRAN INABAGULIWA
Program ya nuklia ya Iran ilianza tangu wakati wa Shah ambaye alisaini NPT mwanzoni kabisa 1968. Marekani hasa ndiyo iliyomjengea Shah mitambo miwili ya mwanzo ya nuklia bila nongwa. Iran ilikuwa inanunua madini ya Urani au Kinywe kutoka Marekani bila matatizo yoyote, kwa ajili ya kutengeneza madawa hasa ya Kansa.

Tatizo likaanza kujitokeza wakati Serikali mpya ya Kiislamu, mwaka 1990, ikataka kununua mzigo kutoka Marekani kwa ajili ya wagonjwa wake. Wakati huo Iran ilikuwa na wagonjwa wasiopungua 40 elfu wa Kansa. Malimbikizo yaliyokuwepo kabla ya mapinduzi yalikuwa yamekwisha. Lo! Hammadi. Marekani, ikakataa kuuza urani kwa Iran, ingawaje hili ni kinyume cha Sheria za Kimataifa na NPT! Zaidi ya hivyo, kila Iran ilipokwenda kutafuta nchi nyingine, kama Brazil, Argentina, Japan....walikuta katazo la Marekani wasiuziwe!
Ungefanyaje kama wewe ni kiongozi wa nchi yako? Hapo ndipo Iran ilipanza fikra ya kuweza kutengeneza enrichment (kutakasa) yenyewe.
Kama nilivyokuambia, Wairan ni watu wana akili za ajabu sana. Lakini pia, kitu cha kwanza Serikali ya Kiislamu kukitilia mkazo ilipofika madarakani ni elimu. JHakuna kazi nzuri Iran kama mwalimu. Serikali imefungua vyuo vya viwango vya nchi zilizoendelea na zaidi. Hivi tusemavyo, kila mwaka wanafunzi wa Iran ndiyo wanaochukua namba 1, 2 katika mashindano ya Hesabati duniani (World Maths Olympics). Vyuo Vikuu vinne vya Iran ni kati ya 10 vinaongoza duniani katika Engineering!
Kifupi...wakaweza kujifanyia wenyewe enrichment...kurutubisha madini ya kinywe! Wamarekani macho yakawatoka, hawakuamini kamwa Wairan wenyewe wangeweza kufanya enrichment! Ni elimu ambayo hata nchi kama Italy, Spain, Sweden etc bado hawajafika!

MIZENGWE YA MAREKANI
Kwa kutaka kuzuia maendeleo ya Iran, Marekani ikishakizwa na Israel, ikaanza kuchochea kwamba Iran ina nia ya kutengeneza silaha za nuklia, ingawaje Iran imetia saini ya kutotengeneza silaha hizo, bali na Kiongozi wake wa Kidini Ayatollah Khomeini alitoa fatwa kwamba kutengeneza silaha kali za kuuwa binadamu kwa jumla bila kuchagua ni marufuku katika Uislamu.

Marekani imeshikilia Iran ina nia ya kutengeneza silah! Baya zaidi, marafiki wa Marekani, kama Israel, ina silaha za nuklia hasa na imekataa kutia saini ya kudhibiti silaha hizo....lakini Israel ndiyo hasa iko mbele katika kuisakama Iran ambayo haina!
NPT iliibana Iran kwa kuipa masharti magumu zaidi, mfano wawe waweza kutembelea mitambo yote bila hodi na bila kutoa taarifa.... Iran ilikubali hiyo ingawaje haikuwa lazima, lakini havijawaombea!

Kama unajua dunia vizuri, basi utajua kuwa Marekani ni koloni la Israel na kwa hiyo inafanya kila inaloamriwa na Israel, ikiwemo vita hii ijayo.
Israel haitaki kuona nchi yenye nguvu inayoshindana nayo. Na sababu kuu hasa ni kwamba inaogopa kwamba kukiwa na dola linaloweza kusikizwa duniani, hatimaye dola hilo litakuja kuilazimisha Israel kuwapa Wapalestiona sehemu zao ilizoziteka mwaka 1967 kwa mujibu wa UN.
Sehemu hizo, kama Gaza na Ufukwe wa Mashariki wa Mto Jordan, Wayahudi wanadai Mungu wao aliwakabidhi wao, miaka 3,000 iliyopita! Sisi tuliouliza tuone Hati hiyo Miliki ya Mungu....bado twasubiri majinbu. Ila baadhi ya madhehebu ya Kikristo huunga mkono hilo, Huko Marekani, Wakristo hao ndiyo wanaoshinikiza serikali yao juu ya kuisapoti Israel hata kinyume na sheria za Kimataifa!

Utaona ingawaje kuna udini fulani katika vita hivi kwa mtazamo wa Israel, lakini kwaa mtazamo wa siasa za dunia yetu ya sasa zinazosimamiwa na misingi ya haki na sheria....hii ni vita ya mbabe mwenye silaha kubwa kumkanyaga mnyonge. Might is right!

ULIVYO ANDIKA NI KAMA VILE UNAISUBIRIA KWA HAM, YAANI UNA ENJOI KUONA WATU WAKIUWAWA... Shame!
Kushabikia watu wengine wauwawe, ni dalili tosha za kuwa mfuasi wa shetani!!!
TUMUOMBE MUNGU AEPUSHE VITA ....msiwe mamluki wa shetani bila kujua...

 

[City Thunder OKC]

Pole sana, we unadhani walisimama?
Unafikiri US walifanikiwa kupiga centrifuges..?

POle sana..

Kwa hiyo kwa sasa urutubishaji upo asilimia ngapi?
Kuna mambo hayana maana kuongopa

 

[Echolima1]

Kati ya Marekani na Jamhuri ya Kiislamu ya Iran. Nielezee kwa kifupi sababu halisi za vita hivi, ili mtu akijitia upumbavu iwe ni shauri yake. Maana kuna watu tayari wamejazwa punzi kuwa Iran ni magaidi, wasiotaka maendeleo, wanaotaka kuuangamiza Ufalmu wa Mungu wa Israeli, na... 'malakia' mengine!

Iran ilifanya mapinduzi ya Wananchi mwaka 1979 na kufanikiwa kumwondoa mfalme aliyekuwa kipenzi cha Marekani, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Shah (Mfalme) alikuwa nambari 1 Mashariki ya kati kwa kupendwa na Marekani kuliko hata Israel, Turkey au Saudi Arabia hivi sasa. Kama unavyoiona Israeli hivi sasa ilikuwa Iran.

Tukio la kupinduliwa Reza halikuipendeza Marekanai na kwa kweli lilikuja kama kustukiza kwani Marekani haikufikiria hata siku moja hilo lingewezekana. Kama unavyojua katika serikali vibaraka wananchi hawa patilizwi, na ndivyo ilivyokuwa hivyo Iran. Mapinduzi yalikuja kama tija ya umaskini katika nchi iliyokuwa nambari 1 kwa kuuza mafuta nje.
Fast Forward....chuki zilianza mara moja. Marekani ikijaribu kumrudisha Shah na Wairan, wote wakati huo, wakipinga. Ndipo Ayatollah Khomaini akaamuru Wanabalozi wa Marekani wazuiwe kuondoka nchini ili wawe kama dhamana ya kutotokea mapinduzi. Jambo hili lilipandisha mori wa Marekani na chuki. Tangu siku hiyo Marekani ikaiwekea vikwazo Iran hadi leo!
Kinyume na wengi walivyodanganywa, Ayatollah Khomeini alisimika Jamhuri ya Kiislamu baada ya kura ya maoni 1979, ambapo mfumo wa Kiislamu, Islamic Republic, ulikubaliwa na wengi kwa kura ya maoni ya asilimia 98.2. Hii ilikuwa kura ya wazi, huru na amani kabisa katika Mashariki ya Kati kuwahi kutokea, hata kushinda kura za Israel na Uturuki (zinazosifiwa kuwa na demokrsia), kwa mujibu wa UN wakati huo.

Wamarekani waliposhindwa kumrudisha Shah mapema, wakasuka mpango wa kumshawishi rais jirani wa Iraq, Saddam Hussein, kuishabulia Iran, angalau waweze kuiangusha Jamhuri changa kwa vita. Hilo halikufanikiwa, na kwa miaka 8 iliyofuata vita ikapiganwa. Kwanza Wairan walikuwa wanyonge, waliwekewa vikwazo vya kununua silaha na nchi zote, hata risasi! Hata na Soviet Union, nchi iliyojitambulisha kwa kuwatetea wanyonge na wanaokandamizwa!
Ila kutokana na akili, vipaji na ubunifu wa Wairan, kidogo kidogo wakajitengenezea silaha hadi ilipofika 1985 wakakomboa ardhi zao zote, bali wakaingia Iraq! Kumbuka, nchi zote za Kiarabu zilikuwa zikiisaidia Iraq kwa mabilioni. Ni Syria na Libya pekee waliomwunga mkono Iran, zaidi kwa maneno.
Ni katika kipindi hiki ndipo Iran ilipoanza kujijengea viwanda mbali mbali hasa vya silaha baada ya kupata fundisho baya.
SUALA LA NUKLIA
Hili ndilo suala ambalo Marekani inasema inaingia vitani kwa ajili yake.
Ni hivi, kwanza kuna tofauti baina ya silaha za nuklia na nishati ya nuklia. UN, baada ya kuona maafa makubwa yaliyosababishwa na Mabomu ya nuklia yaliyoangushwa na Marekani kule Nagasaki na Heroshima Japan mwishoni mwa vita kuu ya pili, iliweka taratibu kufanya Mataifa yote mengine yasiyokuwa bado yameunda silaha za nuklia kufikia mwaka 1950, wazuiwe kabisa kuundfa silaha hizo, lakini wapewe ruhusa ya kufaidika na nishati za nuklia, kwani nishati hizi zinaweza kutumiwa katika matumizi ya amani kama kufua umeme, madawa, kilimo na safina ziendazo chini zaidi baharini au kwenye anga za nje nk.

Hadi hapo ni Marekani, Urusi, China, France, Uingereza ndiyo zilizokuwa na silaha hizo pekee, Baadaye wengine wakazipata kinyemela, Israel, India, Pakistan na Korea ya Kusini (Hiyo ni hadithi kando).

Ili kuratibu utumiaji wa nishati za nuklia, mwaka 1968 wakaunda NPT, Nuclear non Proliferation Treaty, Yaani Mkataba wa Kuzuia Kusambaa kwa Silaha za Nuklia.
Kwa mujibu wake, nchi inayotaka kutumia nishati ya nuklia kwa mambo ya amani, labuda kwanza wajiunge na NPT, waahidi hawatatengeneza silaha, na pia vinu na mitambo yote ya kufulia nishati hiyo viwe chini ya udhibiti na uchunguzi wa mara kwa mawa wa Shirika hili NPT.
IRAN INABAGULIWA
Program ya nuklia ya Iran ilianza tangu wakati wa Shah ambaye alisaini NPT mwanzoni kabisa 1968. Marekani hasa ndiyo iliyomjengea Shah mitambo miwili ya mwanzo ya nuklia bila nongwa. Iran ilikuwa inanunua madini ya Urani au Kinywe kutoka Marekani bila matatizo yoyote, kwa ajili ya kutengeneza madawa hasa ya Kansa.

Tatizo likaanza kujitokeza wakati Serikali mpya ya Kiislamu, mwaka 1990, ikataka kununua mzigo kutoka Marekani kwa ajili ya wagonjwa wake. Wakati huo Iran ilikuwa na wagonjwa wasiopungua 40 elfu wa Kansa. Malimbikizo yaliyokuwepo kabla ya mapinduzi yalikuwa yamekwisha. Lo! Hammadi. Marekani, ikakataa kuuza urani kwa Iran, ingawaje hili ni kinyume cha Sheria za Kimataifa na NPT! Zaidi ya hivyo, kila Iran ilipokwenda kutafuta nchi nyingine, kama Brazil, Argentina, Japan....walikuta katazo la Marekani wasiuziwe!
Ungefanyaje kama wewe ni kiongozi wa nchi yako? Hapo ndipo Iran ilipanza fikra ya kuweza kutengeneza enrichment (kutakasa) yenyewe.
Kama nilivyokuambia, Wairan ni watu wana akili za ajabu sana. Lakini pia, kitu cha kwanza Serikali ya Kiislamu kukitilia mkazo ilipofika madarakani ni elimu. JHakuna kazi nzuri Iran kama mwalimu. Serikali imefungua vyuo vya viwango vya nchi zilizoendelea na zaidi. Hivi tusemavyo, kila mwaka wanafunzi wa Iran ndiyo wanaochukua namba 1, 2 katika mashindano ya Hesabati duniani (World Maths Olympics). Vyuo Vikuu vinne vya Iran ni kati ya 10 vinaongoza duniani katika Engineering!
Kifupi...wakaweza kujifanyia wenyewe enrichment...kurutubisha madini ya kinywe! Wamarekani macho yakawatoka, hawakuamini kamwa Wairan wenyewe wangeweza kufanya enrichment! Ni elimu ambayo hata nchi kama Italy, Spain, Sweden etc bado hawajafika!

MIZENGWE YA MAREKANI
Kwa kutaka kuzuia maendeleo ya Iran, Marekani ikishakizwa na Israel, ikaanza kuchochea kwamba Iran ina nia ya kutengeneza silaha za nuklia, ingawaje Iran imetia saini ya kutotengeneza silaha hizo, bali na Kiongozi wake wa Kidini Ayatollah Khomeini alitoa fatwa kwamba kutengeneza silaha kali za kuuwa binadamu kwa jumla bila kuchagua ni marufuku katika Uislamu.

Marekani imeshikilia Iran ina nia ya kutengeneza silah! Baya zaidi, marafiki wa Marekani, kama Israel, ina silaha za nuklia hasa na imekataa kutia saini ya kudhibiti silaha hizo....lakini Israel ndiyo hasa iko mbele katika kuisakama Iran ambayo haina!
NPT iliibana Iran kwa kuipa masharti magumu zaidi, mfano wawe waweza kutembelea mitambo yote bila hodi na bila kutoa taarifa.... Iran ilikubali hiyo ingawaje haikuwa lazima, lakini havijawaombea!

Kama unajua dunia vizuri, basi utajua kuwa Marekani ni koloni la Israel na kwa hiyo inafanya kila inaloamriwa na Israel, ikiwemo vita hii ijayo.
Israel haitaki kuona nchi yenye nguvu inayoshindana nayo. Na sababu kuu hasa ni kwamba inaogopa kwamba kukiwa na dola linaloweza kusikizwa duniani, hatimaye dola hilo litakuja kuilazimisha Israel kuwapa Wapalestiona sehemu zao ilizoziteka mwaka 1967 kwa mujibu wa UN.
Sehemu hizo, kama Gaza na Ufukwe wa Mashariki wa Mto Jordan, Wayahudi wanadai Mungu wao aliwakabidhi wao, miaka 3,000 iliyopita! Sisi tuliouliza tuone Hati hiyo Miliki ya Mungu....bado twasubiri majinbu. Ila baadhi ya madhehebu ya Kikristo huunga mkono hilo, Huko Marekani, Wakristo hao ndiyo wanaoshinikiza serikali yao juu ya kuisapoti Israel hata kinyume na sheria za Kimataifa!

Utaona ingawaje kuna udini fulani katika vita hivi kwa mtazamo wa Israel, lakini kwaa mtazamo wa siasa za dunia yetu ya sasa zinazosimamiwa na misingi ya haki na sheria....hii ni vita ya mbabe mwenye silaha kubwa kumkanyaga mnyonge. Might is right!

Wafuga Midevu na Majini hivi ni Nani aliyewaroga? Huu UHARO ulioutoa sijui umeutoa wapi!!!

 

[Echolima1]

Kwa hiyo kwa sasa urutubishaji upo asilimia ngapi?
Kuna mambo hayana maana kuongopa

Akikujibu nijulishe niko pale kwa Mwarabu nafuturu!!!

 

[Echolima1]

Pole sana, we unadhani walisimama?
Unafikiri US walifanikiwa kupiga centrifuges..?

POle sana..

Utafikiri tu unajua hata maana ya Centrifuges!!! Unajifanya mjuaji kumbe hewa kabisa!!